IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> shares were up 19.1% based on a <a href="https://news.bloombergtax.com/private-equity/taiyo-holdings-gets-buyout-proposals-from-firms-including-kkr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg report</a> that it received privatisation proposals from KKR and Nippon Sangyo Suishin Kiko. </li>
<li>Taiyo confirmed that it has received privatisation offers. The Board would view privatisation as a solution to rid itself of Oasis, which has recently waged an <a href="https://www.corpgovfortaiyo.com/taiyo-corp-gov" target="_blank" rel="noopener">activist campaign</a>. </li>
<li>At the last close price of JPY6,230, Oasis would be up 45.9% on its highest price of JPY4,720. My analysis suggests that an offer around JPY7,000 can be justified.</li>
</ul>



Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) shares were up 19.1% based on a Bloomberg report that it received privatisation proposals from KKR and Nippon Sangyo Suishin Kiko. 
Taiyo confirmed that it has received privatisation offers. The Board would view privatisation as a solution to rid itself of Oasis, which has recently waged an activist campaign. 
At the last close price of JPY6,230, Oasis would be up 45.9% on its highest price of JPY4,720. My analysis suggests that an offer around JPY7,000 can be justified.


Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Privatisation Interest as Oasis Agitates

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Nomura Research Institute / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paper-industries-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:557:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) </li>
<li>Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) will replace Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP) and Dic Corp (4631 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) 
Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> tender offer was expected to start around now. It is delayed because "necessary procedures and actions" under Chinese antitrust and Japan Investment Approval remain incomplete.</li>
<li>The latter is a <em>trifle</em> concerning, but I expect this gets done. Earnings will be better than originally guided and in the management forecast underpinning the FAs' valuations. </li>
<li>HOWEVER, they'd have to be a LOT better to trigger a re-rate. I don't think they get there but passive is big enough to make traders Oliver Twisty.</li>
</ul>


The Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) tender offer was expected to start around now. It is delayed because "necessary procedures and actions" under Chinese antitrust and Japan Investment Approval remain incomplete.
The latter is a trifle concerning, but I expect this gets done. Earnings will be better than originally guided and in the management forecast underpinning the FAs' valuations. 
HOWEVER, they'd have to be a LOT better to trigger a re-rate. I don't think they get there but passive is big enough to make traders Oliver Twisty.


[Japan M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) - A Last Gasp of Likely Fruitless Optionality Remains

<ul>
<li>Since KKR's JPY4,750 preconditional offer was announced, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> shares have traded above terms on 75% of days, with the offer due to open in late October.</li>
<li>Pressure for a bump: Results beat guidance, peers have rerated, the offer lacks a control premium compared to peer multiples, IFA valuations look stale and competing-offer clauses.</li>
<li>However, KKR can likely close without a bump: minimum acceptance is within reach and could be lowered, no activist has emerged, an interloper looks unlikely, and the price is defensible.</li>
</ul>


Since KKR's JPY4,750 preconditional offer was announced, Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) shares have traded above terms on 75% of days, with the offer due to open in late October.
Pressure for a bump: Results beat guidance, peers have rerated, the offer lacks a control premium compared to peer multiples, IFA valuations look stale and competing-offer clauses.
However, KKR can likely close without a bump: minimum acceptance is within reach and could be lowered, no activist has emerged, an interloper looks unlikely, and the price is defensible.


Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Bump Pressure Builds, but KKR Holds the Cards

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NKY225 rebalance decision was made yesterday: Ryohin Keikaku and NRI replaced Nippon Paper and DIC. A focus on sector balance should continue to be positive for future consumer goods candidates.</li>
<li>With US markets stabilizing there are several names with strong fundamental drivers which look attractive as buy the dip candidates after yesterdays heavy selling.</li>
<li>US job opening data below street estimates increases likelihood that Fed will start with a 50 bps cut this month. Should help the likes of Shin Etsu and Sumitomo Forestry.</li>
</ul>


NKY225 rebalance decision was made yesterday: Ryohin Keikaku and NRI replaced Nippon Paper and DIC. A focus on sector balance should continue to be positive for future consumer goods candidates.
With US markets stabilizing there are several names with strong fundamental drivers which look attractive as buy the dip candidates after yesterdays heavy selling.
US job opening data below street estimates increases likelihood that Fed will start with a 50 bps cut this month. Should help the likes of Shin Etsu and Sumitomo Forestry.


Tokyo Morning Connection: NKY225 Rebalance Decision, Likely Dip Buying After Yesterdays Rout

Japan

DIC Corp. is a chemical company that specializes in printing inks, organic pigments, and thermosetting resins.  The Company also manufactures polymers, specialty plastics and compounds, and others which include building materials, pressure-sensitive adhesives materials, and biochemicals.

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Dic Corp (4631 JP)

Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Privatisation Interest as Oasis Agitates

The Board would view privatisation as a solution to rid itself of Oasis, which has recently waged an activist campaign. My analysis suggests that...

Arun George

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

[Japan M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) - A Last Gasp of Likely Fruitless Optionality Remains

Traders are hoping for more on Taiyo Holdings. It is probably fruitless but there are reasons why people might hope. But that is probably all it is...

Travis Lundy

Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Bump Pressure Builds, but KKR Holds the Cards

The tender launch has moved to around late November, from early October. Approvals still outstanding: China’s competition clearance and Japan’s...

Arun George

Tokyo Morning Connection: NKY225 Rebalance Decision, Likely Dip Buying After Yesterdays Rout

A focus on sector balance continues to be positive for consumer goods candidates. US markets stabilizing with strong buy the dip candidates. Fed...

Andrew Jackson

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