Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Four times a year, the TSE reassesses free float weights for listed stocks. Indices run by the TSE adjust their index shares (shares out x FFW x coefficient) in Jan/Apr/Jul/October.</li>
<li>Yesterday, the TSE announced its changes for this quarter. Combined with other adjustments on 30 July at the close, we expect 190+ events.</li>
<li>For now, we expect the trade is about US$3.3bn a side. At the top of the buy side, 16 names with more than $30mm to buy, averaging 5x ADV.</li>
</ul>


Four times a year, the TSE reassesses free float weights for listed stocks. Indices run by the TSE adjust their index shares (shares out x FFW x coefficient) in Jan/Apr/Jul/October.
Yesterday, the TSE announced its changes for this quarter. Combined with other adjustments on 30 July at the close, we expect 190+ events.
For now, we expect the trade is about US$3.3bn a side. At the top of the buy side, 16 names with more than $30mm to buy, averaging 5x ADV.


[Quiddity Index] TOPIX July 2025 FFW Rebalance - $3bn+ a Side to Trade

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of 91.7 million shares, worth around US$1.9 billion.</li>
<li>The selling shareholder is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)</a>. The secondary offering aims to increase the tradable share ratio to satisfy the TSE Prime Market's continued listing criteria.</li>
<li>The offering represents 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Pricing is likely to be on 5 June.</li>
</ul>



GMO Internet (4784 JP) has announced a secondary offering of 91.7 million shares, worth around US$1.9 billion.
The selling shareholder is GMO Internet Group (9449 JP). The secondary offering aims to increase the tradable share ratio to satisfy the TSE Prime Market's continued listing criteria.
The offering represents 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Pricing is likely to be on 5 June.


GMO Internet (4784 JP): A Huge US$1.9 Billion Secondary Offering

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki's share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.</li>
<li>However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki's share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.
However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 95.7 million shares (110.1 million including overallotment), worth around US$1.1 billion (US$1.3 billion including overallotment).</li>
<li>Suzuki's goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and 23 April (likely 21 April).</li>
</ul>



Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 95.7 million shares (110.1 million including overallotment), worth around US$1.1 billion (US$1.3 billion including overallotment).
Suzuki's goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and 23 April (likely 21 April).


Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

<ul>
<li>Since the offer announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>/JPB’s shares have declined by 2.5%. On 3 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 13.3 million shares for JPY20 billion.</li>
<li>To understand JPB's trading pattern, it is instructive to examine its 2023 offering, <a target="_blank">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a>/JPI’s 2019 offering, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/ JPH’s 2021 offering.</li>
<li>JPB’s shares follow the trading pattern playbook of its 2023 and JPH’s 2021 offerings, in which investors buying the offer were rewarded with positive returns at the payment date.</li>
</ul>


Since the offer announcement, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)/JPB’s shares have declined by 2.5%. On 3 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 13.3 million shares for JPY20 billion.
To understand JPB's trading pattern, it is instructive to examine its 2023 offering, Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)/JPI’s 2019 offering, and Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ JPH’s 2021 offering.
JPB’s shares follow the trading pattern playbook of its 2023 and JPH’s 2021 offerings, in which investors buying the offer were rewarded with positive returns at the payment date.


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

Japan

NIPPON PAINT HOLDINGS CO., LTD. produces paints for automobiles, ships, and other industrial paints.  The Company also manufactures fine chemicals such as finishing agents and adhesives.

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Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP)

[Quiddity Index] TOPIX July 2025 FFW Rebalance - $3bn+ a Side to Trade

The TOPIX July FFW rebal has been announced. It is largely as the Street expected. There is $3.3bn a side to trade by my calcs. Some of that is...

Travis Lundy

GMO Internet (4784 JP): A Huge US$1.9 Billion Secondary Offering

The offering is enormous, representing 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Along with a...

Arun George

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

Suzuki's share performance is the joint best among recent large placements but has underperformed compared to the Nikkei index. The average large...

Arun George

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and...

Arun George

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

JPB’s shares follow the trading pattern playbook of its 2023 and JPH’s 2021 offerings, in which investors buying the offer were rewarded with...

Arun George

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