Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>I was bearish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hino-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2144:1" rel="noopener">Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archion-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47577:1" rel="noopener">Archion (543A JP)</a> against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isuzu-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14726:1" rel="noopener">Isuzu Motors (7202 JP)</a> last year at this time. That trade did well. I am bullish now. </li>
<li>Isuzu released Q1 results a bit more than a week ago. They were salutary. Archion released Q1 yesterday. Also salutary. Historical comparisons are a bit tough, but outlook is good.</li>
<li>When looking at Q1 seasonality vs Hino history, and Q1 revenue results vs last year, either Q1 was a very special outlier or the guidance is quite conservative.</li>
</ul>


I was bearish Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP) / Archion (543A JP) against Isuzu Motors (7202 JP) last year at this time. That trade did well. I am bullish now. 
Isuzu released Q1 results a bit more than a week ago. They were salutary. Archion released Q1 yesterday. Also salutary. Historical comparisons are a bit tough, but outlook is good.
When looking at Q1 seasonality vs Hino history, and Q1 revenue results vs last year, either Q1 was a very special outlier or the guidance is quite conservative.


ARCHION (543A) - Q1 Results Positive, Seasonality VERY Positive

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>Q1 underlying OP rose 32% YoY to ¥29.0bn, annualising ahead of ¥110bn guidance; the ¥233bn bargain purchase gain we flagged at initiation landed almost to the number.</li>
<li>We were right on the company, wrong on the entry: the July secondary cleared ¥260 — well below our ¥360 line — leaving the stock at ¥272, 0.80x book.</li>
<li>Reaffirm BULISH stance, TP reset to ¥370 (was ¥450), +36% upside; basis is a tight blend of 14.5x ex-gain earnings, 1.08x book and ~5.2x EV/EBITDA at Isuzu-parity.</li>
</ul>


Q1 underlying OP rose 32% YoY to ¥29.0bn, annualising ahead of ¥110bn guidance; the ¥233bn bargain purchase gain we flagged at initiation landed almost to the number.
We were right on the company, wrong on the entry: the July secondary cleared ¥260 — well below our ¥360 line — leaving the stock at ¥272, 0.80x book.
Reaffirm BULISH stance, TP reset to ¥370 (was ¥450), +36% upside; basis is a tight blend of 14.5x ex-gain earnings, 1.08x book and ~5.2x EV/EBITDA at Isuzu-parity.


ARCHION (543A JP): Right Thesis, Wrong Entry — Bargain Gain Lands, Reset TP to ¥370, Stay BULLISH

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The mega-offering-slash-re-IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archion-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47577:1" rel="noopener">Archion (543A JP)</a> likely prices today. This is 900mm new shares for ~US$1.6bn of which 40% (US$630mm) goes to internationals, 60% to domestics.</li>
<li>There's a bunch of index buying to do between now and end-October. More than I originally thought due to one recent data point.</li>
<li>The stock has NOT gotten crushed in the last two weeks despite indications the sellers wouldn't mind. That tells me this is priced except for print risk. </li>
</ul>


The mega-offering-slash-re-IPO of Archion (543A JP) likely prices today. This is 900mm new shares for ~US$1.6bn of which 40% (US$630mm) goes to internationals, 60% to domestics.
There's a bunch of index buying to do between now and end-October. More than I originally thought due to one recent data point.
The stock has NOT gotten crushed in the last two weeks despite indications the sellers wouldn't mind. That tells me this is priced except for print risk. 


[Japan Offering] ARCHION (543A) Prices Today (?) - Big Picture Growth Priced Cheaply

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
  <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/archion-corporation">Archion</a> is a newly formed holding company, operational since April 2026, created from the merger of Toyota-backed Hino Motors and Daimler Truck-backed Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus.</li>
  <li>The company is a major player in the Japanese and Southeast Asian commercial vehicle markets, manufacturing and selling trucks and buses under the FUSO and HINO brands.</li>
  <li>A large secondary offering of shares by parent companies Toyota and Daimler Truck is currently underway to increase the stock's free float and diversify the shareholder base, creating both potential overhang and a long-term buying opportunity.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  
Archion is a newly formed holding company, operational since April 2026, created from the merger of Toyota-backed Hino Motors and Daimler Truck-backed Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus.
  The company is a major player in the Japanese and Southeast Asian commercial vehicle markets, manufacturing and selling trucks and buses under the FUSO and HINO brands.
  A large secondary offering of shares by parent companies Toyota and Daimler Truck is currently underway to increase the stock's free float and diversify the shareholder base, creating both potential overhang and a long-term buying opportunity.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.7 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archion-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47577:1" rel="noopener">Archion (543A JP)</a>’s shares have declined 5.8% to the undisturbed price of JPY313 (3 July).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Archion's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.</li>
<li>The preliminary pricing range is JPY250 to JPY300 per share. The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.7 billion secondary offering, Archion (543A JP)’s shares have declined 5.8% to the undisturbed price of JPY313 (3 July).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Archion's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.
The preliminary pricing range is JPY250 to JPY300 per share. The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Japan

ARCHION Corporation offers professional services. The Company provides subsidiary company management and other related services. ARCHION conducts businesses in Japan.

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Archion (543A JP)

ARCHION (543A) - Q1 Results Positive, Seasonality VERY Positive

Archion reported Q1 results. They were quite salutary (even without the one-off non-cash gains). Sales were particularly good, but it is early days...

Travis Lundy

ARCHION (543A JP): Right Thesis, Wrong Entry — Bargain Gain Lands, Reset TP to ¥370, Stay BULLISH

A net-cash Japanese truck champion at 0.80x book, overhang cleared and guidance reaffirmed; validated numbers now 28% cheaper post-offering....

Mo Aziz

[Japan Offering] ARCHION (543A) Prices Today (?) - Big Picture Growth Priced Cheaply

Archion priced its offering WAY too low. The stock has underperformed Isuzu by 15% since the post-merger business plan was announced and nearly 10%...

Travis Lundy

Primer: Archion (543A JP) - Jul 2026

Archion is a newly formed holding company, operational since April 2026, created from the merger of Toyota-backed Hino Motors and Daimler...

αSK Primers

Archion (543A JP): The Current Playbook

The preliminary pricing range is JPY250 to JPY300 per share. The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. The average large Japanese placement...

Arun George

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