Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

ARCHION Corporation (543A JP) - The Orphaned Re-IPO Nobody Is Pricing

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1 underlying OP rose 32% YoY to ¥29.0bn, annualising ahead of ¥110bn guidance; the ¥233bn bargain purchase gain we flagged at initiation landed almost to the number.</li>
<li>We were right on the company, wrong on the entry: the July secondary cleared ¥260 — well below our ¥360 line — leaving the stock at ¥272, 0.80x book.</li>
<li>Reaffirm BULISH stance, TP reset to ¥370 (was ¥450), +36% upside; basis is a tight blend of 14.5x ex-gain earnings, 1.08x book and ~5.2x EV/EBITDA at Isuzu-parity.</li>
</ul>


Q1 underlying OP rose 32% YoY to ¥29.0bn, annualising ahead of ¥110bn guidance; the ¥233bn bargain purchase gain we flagged at initiation landed almost to the number.
We were right on the company, wrong on the entry: the July secondary cleared ¥260 — well below our ¥360 line — leaving the stock at ¥272, 0.80x book.
Reaffirm BULISH stance, TP reset to ¥370 (was ¥450), +36% upside; basis is a tight blend of 14.5x ex-gain earnings, 1.08x book and ~5.2x EV/EBITDA at Isuzu-parity.


ARCHION (543A JP): Right Thesis, Wrong Entry — Bargain Gain Lands, Reset TP to ¥370, Stay BULLISH

Archion

ARCHION (543A JP): Right Thesis, Wrong Entry — Bargain Gain Lands, Reset TP to ¥370, Stay BULLISH