Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Our overall assessment of the new reorganization plan by the Doosan Group continues to be Negative, because Doosan has not given up trying to eventually merge Bobcat and Robotics.</li>
<li>Doosan Group's new reorganization plan is the opposite of KISS strategy, involving several moving parts and complicated deal structure.</li>
<li>We have also provided three main recommendations on how to raise the valuation of Doosan Bobcat without rushing to merge Bobcat and Robotics.</li>
</ul>


Our overall assessment of the new reorganization plan by the Doosan Group continues to be Negative, because Doosan has not given up trying to eventually merge Bobcat and Robotics.
Doosan Group's new reorganization plan is the opposite of KISS strategy, involving several moving parts and complicated deal structure.
We have also provided three main recommendations on how to raise the valuation of Doosan Bobcat without rushing to merge Bobcat and Robotics.


New Reorganization Plan Increases Overhang Risk for Doosan Bobcat

<ul>
<li>In the process of transferring Doosan Bobcat shares held by Doosan Enerbility to Doosan Robotics, there are increasing concerns about negatively impacting minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility. </li>
<li>This current restructuring structure could potentially benefit the Park family/relatives which is the largest shareholder group of Doosan Corp but could negatively impact minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility. </li>
<li>On 25 September, Doosan Enerbility announced that 10 October will be the shareholder confirmation date (shareholder register closing date) for the spin-off NEWCO merger agreement with Doosan Robotics.</li>
</ul>


In the process of transferring Doosan Bobcat shares held by Doosan Enerbility to Doosan Robotics, there are increasing concerns about negatively impacting minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility. 
This current restructuring structure could potentially benefit the Park family/relatives which is the largest shareholder group of Doosan Corp but could negatively impact minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility. 
On 25 September, Doosan Enerbility announced that 10 October will be the shareholder confirmation date (shareholder register closing date) for the spin-off NEWCO merger agreement with Doosan Robotics.


Concerns About Transferring Doosan Bobcat Shares Held by Doosan Enerbility to Doosan Robotics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2024.</li>
<li>Volatility has been high in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks resulting in some interesting widening of some gaps among numerous holdcos and opcos in Korea. </li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 19 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and the other 19 opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2024.
Volatility has been high in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks resulting in some interesting widening of some gaps among numerous holdcos and opcos in Korea. 
Of the 38 pair trades, 19 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and the other 19 opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period. 


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2024

<ul>
<li>On 6 August, the Doosan Group announced a revised merger report. Despite some changes in the merger report, there was no change the merger ratios. </li>
<li>Many minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Bobcat are likely to oppose this merger. The net result is an increasing probability that this merger gets cancelled, in our view.</li>
<li>Doosan Enerbility has set aside about 600 billion won for exercise of appraisal rights and if it exceeds this amount, the merger may be cancelled. </li>
</ul>


On 6 August, the Doosan Group announced a revised merger report. Despite some changes in the merger report, there was no change the merger ratios. 
Many minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Bobcat are likely to oppose this merger. The net result is an increasing probability that this merger gets cancelled, in our view.
Doosan Enerbility has set aside about 600 billion won for exercise of appraisal rights and if it exceeds this amount, the merger may be cancelled. 


Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.</li>
<li>We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that are expected to have passive flows from global and local index trackers over the next few months and that will add to the impact.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
There are a few stocks that are expected to have passive flows from global and local index trackers over the next few months and that will add to the impact.


KOSPI Size Indices: Outperformance Slows on Momentum Stalls

South Korea

Doosan Co., Ltd operates as a diversified manufacturing and service company. The Company conducts electronic components production, logistics equipment manufacturing, information technology consulting, and other businesses. Doosan provides services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Doosan Corp (000150 KS)

New Reorganization Plan Increases Overhang Risk for Doosan Bobcat

Doosan Group's new reorganization plan is the opposite of KISS strategy, involving several moving parts and complicated deal structure.

Douglas Kim

Concerns About Transferring Doosan Bobcat Shares Held by Doosan Enerbility to Doosan Robotics

In this insight, we discuss the continued controversy on the ongoing restructuring of the Doosan Group companies, specifically involving Doosan...

Douglas Kim

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2024

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled

Lee Bok-Hyun (FSS head) stated today that "In reality, the market prices [of Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Robotics] may not properly reflect their fair...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Indices: Outperformance Slows on Momentum Stalls

There could be 41 stocks migrating between size segments in September. The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations but the...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)