Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> will report FY 2025 results on Thursday, 9 October 2025. Gain insight into earnings-day price history, volatility dynamics, and signals from the options market.</li>
<li>
Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven moves between 2–9%, with announcement-day beta vs. the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> more than doubling. Despite illiquidity, options imply a ±4.7% swing — in line with history.</li>
<li>
Portfolio Impact: As an 8% Nikkei 225 heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will report FY 2025 results on Thursday, 9 October 2025. Gain insight into earnings-day price history, volatility dynamics, and signals from the options market.

Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven moves between 2–9%, with announcement-day beta vs. the Nikkei 225 more than doubling. Despite illiquidity, options imply a ±4.7% swing — in line with history.

Portfolio Impact: As an 8% Nikkei 225 heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing

<ul>
<li>
Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.</li>
<li>
Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.

Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>In our previous <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fast-retailing-9983-jp-tactical-outlook-turning-oversold-potential-buy-ahead-of-sep-25-rebalance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we identified a potential BUY opportunity</a> ahead of the September 25 rebalance, but the rally failed to materialize. </li>
<li>
The stock at the moment is oversold, according to our quantitative model, so we would like to review its tactical outlook in this insight.</li>
<li>
Right now, the stock is the most oversold of all the Asian stocks we track, probability of WEEKLY reversal stands at 72%, after last week's Close.</li>
</ul>


In our previous Fast Retailing (9983 JP) insight we identified a potential BUY opportunity ahead of the September 25 rebalance, but the rally failed to materialize. 

The stock at the moment is oversold, according to our quantitative model, so we would like to review its tactical outlook in this insight.

Right now, the stock is the most oversold of all the Asian stocks we track, probability of WEEKLY reversal stands at 72%, after last week's Close.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Waiting for A Rally

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.</li>
<li>It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. </li>
<li>Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.
It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. 
Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.


Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

<ul>
<li>In his recent insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> stated that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s CPAF will stay the same at the September 25 Nikkei 225 Index rebalance.</li>
<li>The stock is turning oversold—not yet extreme, but notable. Historically, this short-term downtrend pattern often reversed after two weeks of declines; we are now in the second consecutive week lower.</li>
<li>Monitor the 47150 support level: the stock is trading at 47810 at the moment of writing, if it goes at or below 47150 it will start to be clearly oversold.
</li>
</ul>


In his recent insight, Brian Freitas stated that Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s CPAF will stay the same at the September 25 Nikkei 225 Index rebalance.
The stock is turning oversold—not yet extreme, but notable. Historically, this short-term downtrend pattern often reversed after two weeks of declines; we are now in the second consecutive week lower.
Monitor the 47150 support level: the stock is trading at 47810 at the moment of writing, if it goes at or below 47150 it will start to be clearly oversold.



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)