Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

A few years ago I started this series, and I updated it last year. Since last year, it has been a top 10 insight in terms of views. I personally think it is important for investors of all types to understand WHO OWNS WHAT. Many fundamental investors are reticent to spend any time on this but there are many reasons why active investors in Japan should be interested in understanding the ownership and shareholder dynamics of passive investors in Japan.<div>Some of the places active investors will see their influence are:</div><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Stories intermittently published about the BOJ's presence in Japanese ETFs (especially the fact that it owns 85+% of the outstanding ETF market),</li>
<li>Relatively constant interest in Nikkei 225 rebalances like the one we saw in July 2020, which helped push up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> by 30+% from May to July, then helped it slide 13% in a week, or the changes in the Nikkei 225 review rules published earlier this year which may change what happens this September to a few large caps, and the announcement of the BOJ that it would no longer buy Nikkei 225 ETFs which started a long slide in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> shares against comps and the Nikkei itself. Long "held up" by 'market inventory' and Nikkei 225 ETF buying, when the BOJ stopped, it removed the cushion and existing inventory holders had to sell out. </li>
<li>Then if you look at the shareholder structure of Fast Retailing today, you will see that it is STILL fundamentally a serious problem for large foreign active investors who would actually wish to take an active (but not activist) position. Real World Float on the stock is, by my calculation, less than 15% of shares outstanding. </li>
<li>The relatively recent policy of increased stewardship regarding the passive management portion of the GPIF (the Government Pension Investment Fund) - an investing heavyweight in Japan.</li>
<li>The timing and quantum of after-event support or overhang on corporate actions such as buybacks, secondary offerings, primary offerings, mergers, etc. </li>
<li>Index inclusions mean big flows. If you follow the insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/collections/topix-inclusion/insights?item=54585" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusions</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> and myself, you will often see big moves. Sometimes these stocks move 50% between when we write about them and when they go into the index. If you own them and are considering an exit, you need to know when to take profits, and the dynamic of the liquidity. If you are thinking about getting in for fundamental reasons, it pays to know early so you can get ahead of the major flow.</li>
<li>The return of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> to the TSE First Section in Q1 this year changed the foreign shareholder percentage ownership, lowering it by 10%. Smartkarma readers knew this last year and in January, which prepared them for the June AGM when the shareholder category ownership was released.</li>
<li>The changes to the TSE's market structure, which will affect TOPIX membership, which will affect many companies' issuance, buyback, share cancellation, etc decisions over the next several months. They are doing this because of the TSE Prime listing rules which will effectively also determine whether or not they will be included in TOPIX in future, or whether they will fall out of TSE Prime and will see constant selling over late 2022 to early 2025. </li>
</ul>
Of course, TOPIX is just over half of the passive tracking AUM in Japan. There's more. 
Find out WHO OWNS WHAT in Japan Passive below the fold. 
</div>

A few years ago I started this series, and I updated it last year. Since last year, it has been a top 10 insight in terms of views. I personally think it is important for investors of all types to understand WHO OWNS WHAT. Many fundamental investors are reticent to spend any time on this but there are many reasons why active investors in Japan should be interested in understanding the ownership and shareholder dynamics of passive investors in Japan.Some of the places active investors will see their influence are:

Stories intermittently published about the BOJ's presence in Japanese ETFs (especially the fact that it owns 85+% of the outstanding ETF market),
Relatively constant interest in Nikkei 225 rebalances like the one we saw in July 2020, which helped push up Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) by 30+% from May to July, then helped it slide 13% in a week, or the changes in the Nikkei 225 review rules published earlier this year which may change what happens this September to a few large caps, and the announcement of the BOJ that it would no longer buy Nikkei 225 ETFs which started a long slide in Fast Retailing (9983 JP) shares against comps and the Nikkei itself. Long "held up" by 'market inventory' and Nikkei 225 ETF buying, when the BOJ stopped, it removed the cushion and existing inventory holders had to sell out. 
Then if you look at the shareholder structure of Fast Retailing today, you will see that it is STILL fundamentally a serious problem for large foreign active investors who would actually wish to take an active (but not activist) position. Real World Float on the stock is, by my calculation, less than 15% of shares outstanding. 
The relatively recent policy of increased stewardship regarding the passive management portion of the GPIF (the Government Pension Investment Fund) - an investing heavyweight in Japan.
The timing and quantum of after-event support or overhang on corporate actions such as buybacks, secondary offerings, primary offerings, mergers, etc. 
Index inclusions mean big flows. If you follow the insights on TOPIX Inclusions by Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA and myself, you will often see big moves. Sometimes these stocks move 50% between when we write about them and when they go into the index. If you own them and are considering an exit, you need to know when to take profits, and the dynamic of the liquidity. If you are thinking about getting in for fundamental reasons, it pays to know early so you can get ahead of the major flow.
The return of Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) to the TSE First Section in Q1 this year changed the foreign shareholder percentage ownership, lowering it by 10%. Smartkarma readers knew this last year and in January, which prepared them for the June AGM when the shareholder category ownership was released.
The changes to the TSE's market structure, which will affect TOPIX membership, which will affect many companies' issuance, buyback, share cancellation, etc decisions over the next several months. They are doing this because of the TSE Prime listing rules which will effectively also determine whether or not they will be included in TOPIX in future, or whether they will fall out of TSE Prime and will see constant selling over late 2022 to early 2025. 

Of course, TOPIX is just over half of the passive tracking AUM in Japan. There's more. 
Find out WHO OWNS WHAT in Japan Passive below the fold. 


Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

We spoke to Yaskawa on Wednesday to gauge regional trends and get a better understanding of some of the company’s new initiatives. Broadly, checkpoints in terms of regional demand trends are unlikely to surprise investors who have been following earnings but there are a few things worth noting.

We spoke to Yaskawa on Wednesday to gauge regional trends and get a better understanding of some of the company’s new initiatives. Broadly, checkpoints in terms of regional demand trends are unlikely to surprise investors who have been following earnings but there are a few things worth noting.

Yaskawa – Some Thoughts After Our Call With IR

Fanuc beat consensus with OP reaching ¥112.5bn (¥107.7bn consensus) on revenue of ¥551bn (¥535bn consensus). The 4.5% OP surprise on a revenue beat of 3.0% is actually on the small side and the details point to some minor concerns. The major concern though is the read through to Fanuc’s expectations for China in the second half.

Fanuc beat consensus with OP reaching ¥112.5bn (¥107.7bn consensus) on revenue of ¥551bn (¥535bn consensus). The 4.5% OP surprise on a revenue beat of 3.0% is actually on the small side and the details point to some minor concerns. The major concern though is the read through to Fanuc’s expectations for China in the second half.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

On January 10, we wrote that demand for semiconductor equipment could exceed SEMI's growth forecast for 2021, that Tokyo Electron's guidance for FY Mar-21 was probably conservative, and that Investors in Tokyo Electron (TEL)... should benefit, even if the shares appear to be overbought. (see<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tokyo-electron-8035-jp-semiconductor-shortage-points-to-stronger-year-ahead" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46893" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Semiconductor Shortage Points to Stronger Year Ahead </a> ).  Since then, TEL has raised guidance, Intel and TSMC have announced big new capital spending plans, SEMI has raised its forecast of semiconductor equipment demand, and TEL's share price has risen by 24%. How much more upside is there?The shares are now selling at 34x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-21 and 31x our estimate for FY Mar-22. These multiples are not high compared with those of other first-rate Japanese  precision manufacturing companies, but they are double what they were two or three years ago. It is tempting to say that valuations are extended in what remains a cyclical industry, but the greater risk to earnings growth, in our estimation, is high and rising depreciation and R&amp;D expenses as the company expands capacity and develops technology for the 2 nanometer node and beyond (See <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/screen-holdings-7735-jp-aiming-at-2nm-process-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49767" rel="noopener">Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Aiming at 2nm Process Technology</a> ).

On January 10, we wrote that demand for semiconductor equipment could exceed SEMI's growth forecast for 2021, that Tokyo Electron's guidance for FY Mar-21 was probably conservative, and that Investors in Tokyo Electron (TEL)... should benefit, even if the shares appear to be overbought. (seeTokyo Electron (8035 JP): Semiconductor Shortage Points to Stronger Year Ahead  ).  Since then, TEL has raised guidance, Intel and TSMC have announced big new capital spending plans, SEMI has raised its forecast of semiconductor equipment demand, and TEL's share price has risen by 24%. How much more upside is there?The shares are now selling at 34x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-21 and 31x our estimate for FY Mar-22. These multiples are not high compared with those of other first-rate Japanese  precision manufacturing companies, but they are double what they were two or three years ago. It is tempting to say that valuations are extended in what remains a cyclical industry, but the greater risk to earnings growth, in our estimation, is high and rising depreciation and R&amp;D expenses as the company expands capacity and develops technology for the 2 nanometer node and beyond (See Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Aiming at 2nm Process Technology ).

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Getting Ahead of Itself

On February 2, we wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/misumi-group-9962-jp-upward-revision-ahead-after-strong-3q-results" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47529" rel="noopener">Misumi Group (9962 JP): Upward Revision Ahead After Strong 3Q Results</a> . This was realized on March 25, when management raided sales guidance for FY Mar-21 by 3.0%, operating profit guidance by 29.2% and net profit guidance by 7.4%. The upward revision was based on strong sales in China and efficiency gains at the operating level, with the gain in net profit reduced by impairment charges. The share price also peaked on February 2, at ¥3,655. It then dropped by 16% to ¥3,075 on March 11 before rebounding. On Friday, March 26, it was up 2.1% to ¥3,335.As Campbell Gunn wrote in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-revisions-03-25-misumi-j-front-retailing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49676" rel="noopener">🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions 03/​​​​​​25 &gt; Misumi &amp; J. Front Retailing</a> , the market reaction to this announcement could well be muted, particularly given the very modest revision to net income relative to the TTM results. It was.Misumi Group should continue to benefit from a recovery in demand for factory automation equipment, but with the shares selling at 59x management's new EPS guidance for FY Mar-21, this prospect is largely in the price.Rather than hope for multiple expansion in a rising interest rate environment, we favor Mio Kato's pair trade: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yaskawa-overvalued-but-is-it-time-to-long-yaskawa-short-fanuc-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47187" rel="noopener">Yaskawa – Overvalued, But Is It Time to Long Yaskawa, Short Fanuc Again?</a>

On February 2, we wrote Misumi Group (9962 JP): Upward Revision Ahead After Strong 3Q Results . This was realized on March 25, when management raided sales guidance for FY Mar-21 by 3.0%, operating profit guidance by 29.2% and net profit guidance by 7.4%. The upward revision was based on strong sales in China and efficiency gains at the operating level, with the gain in net profit reduced by impairment charges. The share price also peaked on February 2, at ¥3,655. It then dropped by 16% to ¥3,075 on March 11 before rebounding. On Friday, March 26, it was up 2.1% to ¥3,335.As Campbell Gunn wrote in 🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions 03/​​​​​​25 &gt; Misumi &amp; J. Front Retailing , the market reaction to this announcement could well be muted, particularly given the very modest revision to net income relative to the TTM results. It was.Misumi Group should continue to benefit from a recovery in demand for factory automation equipment, but with the shares selling at 59x management's new EPS guidance for FY Mar-21, this prospect is largely in the price.Rather than hope for multiple expansion in a rising interest rate environment, we favor Mio Kato's pair trade: Yaskawa – Overvalued, But Is It Time to Long Yaskawa, Short Fanuc Again? 

Misumi Group (9962): Muted Response to Upward Revision

Japan

FANUC CORPORATION manufactures factory automation (FA) systems and equipments, and robots. The Company's products include computerized numerically-controlled (CNC) equipment, servo motors, laser systems, industrial robots, wire-cut electric discharge machines, and CNC drill.  Fanuc participates in a joint venture with General Electric in the FA field.

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Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2021?

This is the 2021 Version of Who Owns What in Japan Passive. It tries to present a relatively comprehensive idea of how much money/float tracks the...

Travis Lundy

Yaskawa – Some Thoughts After Our Call With IR

Speaking to Yaskawa after earnings provided us with some interesting insights on trends in China, its Sigma-X series, profitability for its Robots...

Mio Kato

Fanuc – Early Warning Signs in China

While Fanuc's results beat, sales guidance missed and even ignoring Fanuc's unrealistically conservative margin assumptions, prospects for a demand...

Mio Kato

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Getting Ahead of Itself

The shared are up 33% so far this year, discounting record semiconductor capital spending and an upward revision to guidance. Peak earnings...

Scott Foster

Misumi Group (9962): Muted Response to Upward Revision

As expected, management raised FY Mar-21 guidance. But the market response was muted, probably due to excessive valuations. In factory automation,...

Scott Foster

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