Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 / Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 (JNA COMDTY)

<ul>
<li>ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.</li>
<li>SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.</li>
<li>Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.</li>
</ul>


ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.
SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.
Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.


Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities fell after record highs as Middle East tensions pushed oil higher, triggering global risk-off sentiment and exposing Japan’s vulnerability as a major energy importer.</li>
<li>Oil shock hit energy-sensitive sectors: airlines, rubber and brokers fell, while mining and shipping gained; sell-off was broad with momentum reversal and defensives outperforming.</li>
<li>Stock moves diverged: SaaS firms rose on earnings stability, Rohm surged on takeover news, while Sumitomo Metal Mining and Sumitomo Rubber plunged on commodity and oil risks.</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities fell after record highs as Middle East tensions pushed oil higher, triggering global risk-off sentiment and exposing Japan’s vulnerability as a major energy importer.
Oil shock hit energy-sensitive sectors: airlines, rubber and brokers fell, while mining and shipping gained; sell-off was broad with momentum reversal and defensives outperforming.
Stock moves diverged: SaaS firms rose on earnings stability, Rohm surged on takeover news, while Sumitomo Metal Mining and Sumitomo Rubber plunged on commodity and oil risks.


Japan Strategy Weekly | Oil Shock Tests a Crowded Rally

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Oversold tech/SPE/AI surging after Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs on all but China, with the SOX up the most of all time.</li>
<li>Expect similar moves with oversold tech beta likely to open &gt;+10%.</li>
<li>Banks and life insurance  should continue to fare well given the persistently high yields, and names with high export ratios to the US.</li>
</ul>


Oversold tech/SPE/AI surging after Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs on all but China, with the SOX up the most of all time.
Expect similar moves with oversold tech beta likely to open &gt;+10%.
Banks and life insurance  should continue to fare well given the persistently high yields, and names with high export ratios to the US.


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Pulls off One of the Greatest Ruses of All Time

<ul>
<li>TSMC higher on news from the day before it is investing heavily in US fab capacity.</li>
<li>Continental AG -11.6% after earnings miss sets a poor tone for JP tire makers Bridgestone, Toyo, Yokohama and Sumitomo.</li>
<li>All eyes on Trumps speech to congress this morning, although markets should be firm off the open.</li>
</ul>


TSMC higher on news from the day before it is investing heavily in US fab capacity.
Continental AG -11.6% after earnings miss sets a poor tone for JP tire makers Bridgestone, Toyo, Yokohama and Sumitomo.
All eyes on Trumps speech to congress this morning, although markets should be firm off the open.


Japan Morning Connection: Volatile Session but Pointing Higher on Potential for a Tariff Flip-Flop

Rubber News Specialist, Helixtap

Vinod Nedumudy

Rubber News Specialist

Global Commodities Alternative Data and Insights

Helixtap

Helixtap collects, processes and distributes proprietary data, analyses and forecasts for the rubber, latex and automotive markets

<ul><li>Transaction valued at around US$701 million in cash proceeds</li><li>Goodyear to hold ground in Europe until the end of 2025</li><li>Goodyear joins Dutch research body TNO for crash mitigation</li></ul>

Transaction valued at around US$701 million in cash proceedsGoodyear to hold ground in Europe until the end of 2025Goodyear joins Dutch research body TNO for crash mitigation

Goodyear Tire To Divest Dunlop In Favor Of Sumitomo Rubber

Japan

Sumitomo Rubber Industries, Ltd. manufactures automobile and motorcycle tires, industrial rubber products and sports equipment.  The Company's products include golf balls, tennis rackets, rubber gloves, and artificial turf. Sumitomo Rubber sells its products under Dunlop brand around the world.

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Sumitomo Rubber Industries (5110 JP)

Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Weather may initiate supply tightening, but lower inventories and downstream demand determine whether tighter rubber conditions become investable.

Duncan Chan

Japan Strategy Weekly | Oil Shock Tests a Crowded Rally

Japanese equities fell due to record highs and Middle East tensions pushing oil prices higher, exposing vulnerability as a major energy importer.

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Pulls off One of the Greatest Ruses of All Time

Oversold Tech surging after delay on reciprocal tariffs, with SOX hitting record highs. Expect gains in oversold tech beta and strong performance...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Volatile Session but Pointing Higher on Potential for a Tariff Flip-Flop

TSMC rises on news of investment in US fab capacity, Continental AG drops after earnings miss sets poor tone for JP tire makers.

Andrew Jackson

Goodyear Tire To Divest Dunlop In Favor Of Sumitomo Rubber

In a significant development in the tire sector, the Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company has signed a definitive agreement to sell the Dunlop brand to...

Helixtap

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Weather may initiate supply tightening, but lower inventories and downstream demand determine whether tighter rubber conditions become investable.

Duncan Chan

Japan Strategy Weekly | Oil Shock Tests a Crowded Rally

​Japanese equities fell due to record highs and Middle East tensions pushing oil prices higher, exposing vulnerability as a major energy importer.

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Pulls off One of the Greatest Ruses of All Time

Oversold ​Tech surging after delay on reciprocal tariffs, with SOX hitting record highs. Expect gains in oversold tech beta and strong performance...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Volatile Session but Pointing Higher on Potential for a Tariff Flip-Flop

​TSMC rises on news of investment in US fab capacity, Continental AG drops after earnings miss sets poor tone for JP tire makers.

Andrew Jackson

Goodyear Tire To Divest Dunlop In Favor Of Sumitomo Rubber

In a significant development in the tire sector, the Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company has signed a definitive agreement to sell the Dunlop brand to...

Helixtap

Japanese equities fell due to record highs and Middle East tensions pushing oil prices higher, exposing vulnerability as a major energy importer.

Oversold Tech surging after delay on reciprocal tariffs, with SOX hitting record highs. Expect gains in oversold tech beta and strong performance...

TSMC rises on news of investment in US fab capacity, Continental AG drops after earnings miss sets poor tone for JP tire makers.