Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BHP’s bid for Anglo American highlights the value currently in the mining sector</li>
<li>Chinese material stocks outperforming and the world is following suit</li>
<li>Speculative buying exhaustion may prompt a correction in copper and provide a good entry point.</li>
</ul>


BHP’s bid for Anglo American highlights the value currently in the mining sector
Chinese material stocks outperforming and the world is following suit
Speculative buying exhaustion may prompt a correction in copper and provide a good entry point.


"There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills" – Value in the Diversified Mining Sector

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 27th July, gold/copper exploration play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carnaby-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4197:1" rel="noopener">Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)</a> entered into a Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Evolution offered  0.0682 new shares for each Carnaby share, or an indicative Offer price of A$0.77/share, a 60.4% premium. Post merger, Carnaby shareholders would hold ~0.9% in the enlarged entity.</li>
<li>Carnaby's board unanimously support terms. Directors hold 7.3%. Retail pushback should be limited: scrip terms are now up ~41% since the Offer was announced.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 27th July, gold/copper exploration play Carnaby Resources (CNB AU) entered into a Scheme with Evolution Mining (EVN AU).
Evolution offered  0.0682 new shares for each Carnaby share, or an indicative Offer price of A$0.77/share, a 60.4% premium. Post merger, Carnaby shareholders would hold ~0.9% in the enlarged entity.
Carnaby's board unanimously support terms. Directors hold 7.3%. Retail pushback should be limited: scrip terms are now up ~41% since the Offer was announced.


Retail Pushback Not Large/Loud Enough To Threaten Evolution's Offer For Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>2023 was the year of Uranium. Both the underlying commodity and most uranium equity-linked stories performed strongly.</li>
<li>2024 will be the story about copper and supply side issues becoming front and center as the "energy transition" benefits copper usage.</li>
<li>Buy a basket of junior copper companies with high M&amp;A likelihood such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/los-andes-copper-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35434:1" rel="noopener">Los Andes Copper Ltd (LA CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solaris-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40176:1" rel="noopener">Solaris Resources (SLS CN),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arras-minerals-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40384" rel="noopener">Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


2023 was the year of Uranium. Both the underlying commodity and most uranium equity-linked stories performed strongly.
2024 will be the story about copper and supply side issues becoming front and center as the "energy transition" benefits copper usage.
Buy a basket of junior copper companies with high M&amp;A likelihood such as Los Andes Copper Ltd (LA CN), Solaris Resources (SLS CN), Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY), and Entree Resources (ETG CN). 


2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 27 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carnaby-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4197:1" rel="noopener">Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)</a> entered a scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a> at 0.0682 EVN shares per CNB share, a 60.4% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>Regulatory approvals (ACCC) are low-risk. The exchange ratio is broadly in line with the 3-year average price ratio. </li>
<li>Despite retail opposition, the scheme vote should pass, particularly as Evolution's share price strength has increased the implied deal value by 33% from A$0.77 (deal announcement) to A$1.03 (last close). </li>
</ul>


On 27 July, Carnaby Resources (CNB AU) entered a scheme with Evolution Mining (EVN AU) at 0.0682 EVN shares per CNB share, a 60.4% premium to the last close.
Regulatory approvals (ACCC) are low-risk. The exchange ratio is broadly in line with the 3-year average price ratio. 
Despite retail opposition, the scheme vote should pass, particularly as Evolution's share price strength has increased the implied deal value by 33% from A$0.77 (deal announcement) to A$1.03 (last close). 


Carnaby Resources (CNB AU): Evolution’s All-Scrip Scheme Offer

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>Recent and pending supply-chain deforestation regulations represent a new and ever-growing source of transition risks – financially-material risks with far-reaching ramifications.</li>
<li>Significant developments regarding the European Union's pending forest-risk commodity laws (e.g., inclusion of natural rubber, addition of banks to its purview) inspired this Insight.</li>
<li>This Insight briefly summarises EU and U.K. deforestation regulations, then analyses potential risks and implications for issuers involved in related forest-risk commodity supply chains.</li>
</ul>


Recent and pending supply-chain deforestation regulations represent a new and ever-growing source of transition risks – financially-material risks with far-reaching ramifications.
Significant developments regarding the European Union's pending forest-risk commodity laws (e.g., inclusion of natural rubber, addition of banks to its purview) inspired this Insight.
This Insight briefly summarises EU and U.K. deforestation regulations, then analyses potential risks and implications for issuers involved in related forest-risk commodity supply chains.


Supply-Chain Deforestation Laws as a New and Growing Source of Transition Risk

Switzerland

Glencore is one of the world's largest globally diversified natural resource companies. It produces, sources, markets, and recycles a wide range of raw materials including metals, minerals, and energy products essential for everyday life and the transition to a low-carbon economy. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.

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Glencore (GLEN LN)

"There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills" – Value in the Diversified Mining Sector

BHP bid for Anglo highlights value in the mining sector. The long-term underperformance of the sector is in the process of being reversed and has...

Rikki Malik

Retail Pushback Not Large/Loud Enough To Threaten Evolution's Offer For Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)

A clean merger. I don't see retail investors disrupting the deal. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 4.6%/22.7%, assuming mid-Nov completion....

David Blennerhassett

2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners

2023 was a strong year for uranium in 2024 it could be copper's time to shine due to supply issues and the "energy transition." Consider investing...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Carnaby Resources (CNB AU): Evolution’s All-Scrip Scheme Offer

Despite retail opposition, the scheme vote should pass, particularly as EVN's share price strength has increased the implied deal value by 33% from...

Arun George

Supply-Chain Deforestation Laws as a New and Growing Source of Transition Risk

New deforestation and forest-risk commodity regulations are poppoing up around the world, and they are unlike any prior climate regulations. Big...

Kyle Rudden

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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"There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills" – Value in the Diversified Mining Sector

​BHP bid for Anglo highlights value in the mining sector. The long-term underperformance of the sector is in the process of being reversed and has...

Rikki Malik

Retail Pushback Not Large/Loud Enough To Threaten Evolution's Offer For Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)

A clean merger. I don't see retail investors disrupting the deal. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 4.6%/22.7%, assuming mid-Nov completion....

David Blennerhassett

2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners

​2023 was a strong year for uranium in 2024 it could be copper's time to shine due to supply issues and the "energy transition." Consider investing...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Carnaby Resources (CNB AU): Evolution’s All-Scrip Scheme Offer

Despite retail opposition, the scheme vote should pass, particularly as EVN's share price strength has increased the implied deal value by 33% from...

Arun George

Supply-Chain Deforestation Laws as a New and Growing Source of Transition Risk

New deforestation and forest-risk commodity regulations are poppoing up around the world, and they are unlike any prior climate regulations. Big...

Kyle Rudden

BHP bid for Anglo highlights value in the mining sector. The long-term underperformance of the sector is in the process of being reversed and has...

2023 was a strong year for uranium in 2024 it could be copper's time to shine due to supply issues and the "energy transition." Consider investing...