US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following the regulatory approval from the Government of Canada, Glencore's cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources (EVR) is expected to close on 11 July 2024.</li>
<li>The cash acquisition is forecasted not to cause any passive fund flows based on the deal structure.</li>
<li>The potential demerger introduces the risk for Glencore approaching the exit threshold of STOXX Europe 50. This is yet undetermined due to the long time horizon.</li>
</ul>


Following the regulatory approval from the Government of Canada, Glencore's cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources (EVR) is expected to close on 11 July 2024.
The cash acquisition is forecasted not to cause any passive fund flows based on the deal structure.
The potential demerger introduces the risk for Glencore approaching the exit threshold of STOXX Europe 50. This is yet undetermined due to the long time horizon.


Glencore (GLEN): Green Light from Canada for $6.9bn Acquisition of EVR. Demerger on the Table.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On 20 May, I wrote that Japanese activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki and relations/affiliates had gone from 5% to 20% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> in 5 trading days.</li>
<li>I wondered if it was real, or a pump &amp; dump, but they went to near 30% in following days. THEN they drifted off as Murakami-Fille sold while Murakami-Père bought. </li>
<li>The reasoning was not clear, but the story had real potential. Still does. Today, shareholders got more good news. </li>
</ul>


On 20 May, I wrote that Japanese activist MURAKAMI Yoshiaki and relations/affiliates had gone from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) in 5 trading days.
I wondered if it was real, or a pump &amp; dump, but they went to near 30% in following days. THEN they drifted off as Murakami-Fille sold while Murakami-Père bought. 
The reasoning was not clear, but the story had real potential. Still does. Today, shareholders got more good news. 


JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 4 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">MMG (1208 HK)</a> announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.</li>
<li>Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. </li>
<li>MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.</li>
</ul>


On 4 June, MMG (1208 HK) announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.
Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. 
MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">Mmg Ltd (1208 HK)</a> will raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every 5 existing shares rights offering. The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP.</li>
<li>The rights proceeds will be used to repay existing debt, which will allow it to use other funds to better support the ongoing development of the operating mines.</li>
<li>MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights date. The shares go ex-rights on 11 June, and the rights start trading from 24 June to 2 July (inclusive).</li>
</ul>



Mmg Ltd (1208 HK) will raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every 5 existing shares rights offering. The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP.
The rights proceeds will be used to repay existing debt, which will allow it to use other funds to better support the ongoing development of the operating mines.
MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights date. The shares go ex-rights on 11 June, and the rights start trading from 24 June to 2 July (inclusive).


MMG (1208 HK): US$1.2bn Highly Dilutive Rights Issue

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals needed in South Africa. PUSU extended 29 May.</li>
<li>I update my SOTP to 2938p. Copper Fair Value, in my opinion, is £17.70 per share. This contrasts with BHP's current offer of £21.32/share for the entirety of Anglo's rump.</li>
<li>There is now a ~20.1% difference between the implied value of BHP's offer and the share price of Anglo. The market assumes a lower likelihood of an agreed deal</li>
</ul>


On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals needed in South Africa. PUSU extended 29 May.
I update my SOTP to 2938p. Copper Fair Value, in my opinion, is £17.70 per share. This contrasts with BHP's current offer of £21.32/share for the entirety of Anglo's rump.
There is now a ~20.1% difference between the implied value of BHP's offer and the share price of Anglo. The market assumes a lower likelihood of an agreed deal


Anglo American Rejects BHP's Increased and Final Offer

Switzerland

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

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Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)

Glencore (GLEN): Green Light from Canada for $6.9bn Acquisition of EVR. Demerger on the Table.

Glencore's $6.9bn cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources is expected to be followed by a demerger which increases the risk...

Dimitris Ioannidis

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up

Mitsui Matsushima today announced that it had agreed to sell its rights to the residual Liddell Mine asset with provision. That is a boost to BVPS...

Travis Lundy

MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

The rights start trading on 24 June. We expect MMG shares to claw back some losses over the rights trading period, particularly towards the end.

Arun George

MMG (1208 HK): US$1.2bn Highly Dilutive Rights Issue

The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP. Precedents suggest that MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights...

Arun George

Anglo American Rejects BHP's Increased and Final Offer

On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Glencore (GLEN): Green Light from Canada for $6.9bn Acquisition of EVR. Demerger on the Table.

​Glencore's $6.9bn cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources is expected to be followed by a demerger which increases the risk...

Dimitris Ioannidis

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima Cleans Up

Mitsui Matsushima today announced that it had agreed to sell its rights to the residual Liddell Mine asset with provision. That is a boost to BVPS...

Travis Lundy

MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

The rights start trading on 24 June. We expect MMG shares to claw back some losses over the rights trading period, particularly towards the end.

Arun George

MMG (1208 HK): US$1.2bn Highly Dilutive Rights Issue

The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP. Precedents suggest that MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights...

Arun George

Anglo American Rejects BHP's Increased and Final Offer

On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Glencore's $6.9bn cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources is expected to be followed by a demerger which increases the risk...