Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a blockbuster 2022 driven by lithium supercycle highs, Tianqi Lithium saw earnings swing into deep losses in 2024 amid price crashes.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, it plans to scale lithium chemical capacity to over 140,000 tons/year, deepen integration in China and Southeast Asia, and selectively invest in technologies like DLE.</li>
<li>While near-term profitability remains uncertain, current EV/EBITDA valuations below 5x suggest the downside may be priced in.</li>
</ul>


After a blockbuster 2022 driven by lithium supercycle highs, Tianqi Lithium saw earnings swing into deep losses in 2024 amid price crashes.
Looking ahead, it plans to scale lithium chemical capacity to over 140,000 tons/year, deepen integration in China and Southeast Asia, and selectively invest in technologies like DLE.
While near-term profitability remains uncertain, current EV/EBITDA valuations below 5x suggest the downside may be priced in.


Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ / 9696.HK): Rebuilding Via Expansion, Valuations Appear Reasonable

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iperionx-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30710:1" rel="noopener">IperionX Limited (IPX AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/patriot-battery-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36822:1" rel="noopener">Patriot Battery Metals (PMT CN)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a round-trip trade of US$48m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iperionx-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30710:1" rel="noopener">IperionX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iluka-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10105:1" rel="noopener">Iluka Resources</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle</a>, while the largest outflows will be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/patriot-battery-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36822:1" rel="noopener">Patriot Battery Metals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amg-critical-materials-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40462:1" rel="noopener">AMG Critical Materials</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenghe-resources-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17058:1" rel="noopener">Shenghe Resources</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-americas-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23860:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Americas</a>.</li>
</ul>



IperionX Limited (IPX AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) and Patriot Battery Metals (PMT CN) will be deleted.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a round-trip trade of US$48m.
The largest inflows will be in IperionX, Iluka Resources and Albemarle, while the largest outflows will be from Patriot Battery Metals, AMG Critical Materials, Shenghe Resources and Lithium Americas.


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Albemarle Corporation's first quarter of 2025 earnings report provides a measured perspective on the company's current standing and future prospects, presenting an amalgam of strengths and challenges faced by the company.</li><li>The corporation reported net sales of $1.1 billion, reflecting robust lithium production, particularly through their integrated conversion network.</li><li>This was a positive highlight in a period marked by broader volatility in lithium pricing.</li></ul>

Albemarle Corporation's first quarter of 2025 earnings report provides a measured perspective on the company's current standing and future prospects, presenting an amalgam of strengths and challenges faced by the company.The corporation reported net sales of $1.1 billion, reflecting robust lithium production, particularly through their integrated conversion network.This was a positive highlight in a period marked by broader volatility in lithium pricing.

Albemarle Corporation: An Analysis Of Its Lithium Contracting Strategy

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are no constituent changes for the index but there will be capping changes for a few stocks.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 10.8% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$208m. There are some stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The index has been in a secular downtrend over the last few years and there have been big redemptions from ETFs tracking the index.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are no constituent changes for the index but there will be capping changes for a few stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 10.8% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$208m. There are some stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The index has been in a secular downtrend over the last few years and there have been big redemptions from ETFs tracking the index.


Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38824:1" rel="noopener">Standard Lithium (SLI US)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> at the close of trading on 21 March.</li>
<li>The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% and in a round-trip trade of US$61m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle (ALB US)</a> while there will be outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mp-materials-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33108:1" rel="noopener">MP Materials (MP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp (LYC AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Standard Lithium (SLI US) will be deleted from the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close of trading on 21 March.
The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% and in a round-trip trade of US$61m.
The largest inflows will be in Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) and Albemarle (ALB US) while there will be outflows from MP Materials (MP US) and Lynas Corp (LYC AU).


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes

United States

Albemarle Corporation produces specialty and fine chemicals.  The Company's chemicals are additives to or intermediates for plastics, polymers and elastomers, cleaning products, agricultural compounds, pharmaceuticals, photographic chemicals, drilling compounds, and biocides.  Albemarle produces the majority of its products in the United States.

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Albemarle Corp (ALB US)

Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ / 9696.HK): Rebuilding Via Expansion, Valuations Appear Reasonable

Tianqi rallied ~15% as lithium futures rebounded ~17% from ¥60,000 to ¥70,500/ton after Zangge Mining halted production due to low prices. The...

Rahul Jain

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

The inclusion of IperionX, deletion of Patriot Battery Metals, float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a...

Brian Freitas

Albemarle Corporation: An Analysis Of Its Lithium Contracting Strategy

Albemarle Corporation's first quarter of 2025 earnings report provides a measured perspective on the company's current standing and future...

Baptista Research

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week

There are capping changes for the Global Lithium Index next week. Estimated one-way turnover is 10.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$208m....

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes

Standard Lithium is a delete. Estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% results in a round-trip trade of US$61m. Pilbara Minerals is a passive buy...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ / 9696.HK): Rebuilding Via Expansion, Valuations Appear Reasonable

Tianqi rallied ~15% as lithium futures rebounded ~17% from ¥60,000 to ¥70,500/ton after Zangge Mining halted production due to low prices. The...

Rahul Jain

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

The inclusion of IperionX, deletion of Patriot Battery Metals, float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a...

Brian Freitas

Albemarle Corporation: An Analysis Of Its Lithium Contracting Strategy

Albemarle Corporation's first quarter of 2025 earnings report provides a measured perspective on the company's current standing and future...

Baptista Research

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week

There are capping changes for the Global Lithium Index next week. Estimated one-way turnover is 10.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$208m....

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes

Standard Lithium is a delete. Estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% results in a round-trip trade of US$61m. Pilbara Minerals is a passive buy...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes