Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The revenue growth rate rose to 14% in 1Q24, compared to the past four stagnant quarters.</li>
<li>All businesses continued to improve their margins, so that the general operating margin rose to 19% in 1Q24 versus 12% in 1Q23.</li>
<li>We believe the re-organization is successful and the stock price is overly impacted. Buy.</li>
</ul>


The revenue growth rate rose to 14% in 1Q24, compared to the past four stagnant quarters.
All businesses continued to improve their margins, so that the general operating margin rose to 19% in 1Q24 versus 12% in 1Q23.
We believe the re-organization is successful and the stock price is overly impacted. Buy.


Alibaba (9988 HK): 1Q24, Brilliant Result After Reorganization, 90% Upside

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Positive surprises in profitability during Q1 2023 failed to reverse the long-term decline of Chinese e-commerce, possibly due to market recognition of the temporary impact of cost-cutting and monetization efforts.</li>
<li>In our opinion, robust growth in GMV is fundamentally essential to reverse the long-term downward trend of the Chinese e-commerce sector.</li>
<li>Chinese e-commerce sector no longer discloses GMV, but Express delivery volume indicates a 20% decline in parcel volumes compared to 2021, potentially reflecting a decrease in GMV.</li>
</ul>


Positive surprises in profitability during Q1 2023 failed to reverse the long-term decline of Chinese e-commerce, possibly due to market recognition of the temporary impact of cost-cutting and monetization efforts.
In our opinion, robust growth in GMV is fundamentally essential to reverse the long-term downward trend of the Chinese e-commerce sector.
Chinese e-commerce sector no longer discloses GMV, but Express delivery volume indicates a 20% decline in parcel volumes compared to 2021, potentially reflecting a decrease in GMV.


Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April</li>
<li>April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)</li>
<li>Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins</li>
</ul>


Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April
April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)
Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins


Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 28th Mar 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.</li>
<li>Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.</li>
<li>Having looked at the past performance of its division, some appear more worthy than others of undertaking a listing in the next year or two.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba Group (9988 HK) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.
Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.
Having looked at the past performance of its division, some appear more worthy than others of undertaking a listing in the next year or two.


Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 1 - Six Mini-Alibabas - Some Are More Ready than Others to List

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will take a look at broker performance for HK IPOs from 2019-2022. </li>
<li>The following dataset includes all HK IPOs above US$100m for the period of Calendar Years 2019-2022, which amounted to a total of <strong>173 deals.  </strong>
</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on any of these IPOs.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will take a look at broker performance for HK IPOs from 2019-2022. 
The following dataset includes all HK IPOs above US$100m for the period of Calendar Years 2019-2022, which amounted to a total of 173 deals.  

The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on any of these IPOs.


Aequitas HK IPOs Sponsor + GC Performance (2019-2022)

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Alibaba (9988 HK): 1Q24, Brilliant Result After Reorganization, 90% Upside

The revenue growth rate rose to 14% in 1Q24, compared to the past four stagnant quarters. All businesses continued to improve their margins. We...

Ming Lu

China E-Commerce: Is Still a Dead Cat

Positive surprises in profitability in Q1 failed to reverse the long-term decline of Chinese e-commerce, possibly due to market recognition of the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

In April, express volume shot up 36% against easy Y/Y comps, but ASPs deepened their recent decline. We believe pricing will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 1 - Six Mini-Alibabas - Some Are More Ready than Others to List

Alibaba recently announced that it would adopt a new organizational structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments. In...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba (9988 HK): 1Q24, Brilliant Result After Reorganization, 90% Upside

The revenue growth rate rose to 14% in 1Q24, compared to the past four stagnant quarters. All businesses continued to improve their margins. We...

Ming Lu

China E-Commerce: Is Still a Dead Cat

Positive surprises in profitability in Q1 failed to reverse the long-term decline of Chinese e-commerce, possibly due to market recognition of the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

In April, express volume shot up 36% against easy Y/Y comps, but ASPs deepened their recent decline. We believe pricing will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 1 - Six Mini-Alibabas - Some Are More Ready than Others to List

Alibaba recently announced that it would adopt a new organizational structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments. In...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas HK IPOs Sponsor + GC Performance (2019-2022)

In this note, we will take a look at broker performance for HK IPOs from 2019-2022. The following dataset includes all HK IPOs above US$100m for...

Ethan Aw