Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> has been defying gravity, recently. It is up more than 30% from its most recent low.</li>
<li>In our previous, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hsi-to-find-strong-support-between-18-8k-and-17-5k-long-term-uptrend-set-to-restart" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jan. 11th insight</a> we highlighted very precisely the support zone (18.8k-17.5k) from where the index was poised to resume its rally (the bottom was printed at 18671).</li>
<li>
Our models are currently indicating a very overbought condition. Leveraging the information relayed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/gaudenz-schneider" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:66501" rel="noopener">Gaudenz Schneider</a> in a recent insight, we think a "HSI PUT" could make sense here. </li>
</ul>


The HSI INDEX has been defying gravity, recently. It is up more than 30% from its most recent low.
In our previous, Jan. 11th insight we highlighted very precisely the support zone (18.8k-17.5k) from where the index was poised to resume its rally (the bottom was printed at 18671).

Our models are currently indicating a very overbought condition. Leveraging the information relayed by Gaudenz Schneider in a recent insight, we think a "HSI PUT" could make sense here. 


The HSI PUT: Hedging Strategies for an Overextended Rally

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Zoomlion Heavy Industry H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong continues its secular bull market and has now reached its first significant resistance in the 24k to 25k.  Growth factor investing is leading in long-only investing.</li>
<li>Mainland buyers continue buying Hong Kong stocks at a historic rate with buying focused in the tech sector and specifically in AI-related companies.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)</a> has broken its double-top formation and is at a new high.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Holdings (303 HK)</a> broke out to a new high with improving momentum.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong continues its secular bull market and has now reached its first significant resistance in the 24k to 25k.  Growth factor investing is leading in long-only investing.
Mainland buyers continue buying Hong Kong stocks at a historic rate with buying focused in the tech sector and specifically in AI-related companies.

Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK) has broken its double-top formation and is at a new high.  Vtech Holdings (303 HK) broke out to a new high with improving momentum.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (March 6)

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> rallied, lower in-the-money calls were closed, realizing gains, while higher out-of-the-money strikes gained popularity.</li>
<li>The median strike price lagged the sharp increase in stock price. The median strike currently stands at 107.50.</li>
<li>With 81% of March calls currently in-the-money and higher strikes trading at premium implied volatility, active trading is expected in the 150-170 strike range.</li>
</ul>


While Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) rallied, lower in-the-money calls were closed, realizing gains, while higher out-of-the-money strikes gained popularity.
The median strike price lagged the sharp increase in stock price. The median strike currently stands at 107.50.
With 81% of March calls currently in-the-money and higher strikes trading at premium implied volatility, active trading is expected in the 150-170 strike range.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Trends in CALL Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts

<ul>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> rallied, put strike distribution remained largely unchanged with median strikes only rising from 80 to 85, pushing protection increasingly deep out-of-the-money.</li>
<li>With most puts now deep out-of-the-money, active trading is expected in the 120-140 strike range.</li>
<li>The deep out-of-the-money put strikes trade at a significant premium to at the money implied volatility. The 130 strikes trade below, offering an opportunity for an effective hedge.</li>
</ul>


As Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) rallied, put strike distribution remained largely unchanged with median strikes only rising from 80 to 85, pushing protection increasingly deep out-of-the-money.
With most puts now deep out-of-the-money, active trading is expected in the 120-140 strike range.
The deep out-of-the-money put strikes trade at a significant premium to at the money implied volatility. The 130 strikes trade below, offering an opportunity for an effective hedge.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Trends in PUT Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek's (DS) low-cost, high-performance open-source model fundamentally altered the AI landscape, but server overload of DS's chatbot caused poor user experience;</li>
<li>Among many Internet platforms that integrated DS into their products, Tencent stood to benefit the most. Through DS, Tencent LLM climbed 3 spots to unseat ByteDance to become the No.1;</li>
<li>What Tencent has done right including preprocessing, answer caching and building dedicated nodes. Now Manus is catching the imagination of AI monetization, Tencent can possible benefit more.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek's (DS) low-cost, high-performance open-source model fundamentally altered the AI landscape, but server overload of DS's chatbot caused poor user experience;
Among many Internet platforms that integrated DS into their products, Tencent stood to benefit the most. Through DS, Tencent LLM climbed 3 spots to unseat ByteDance to become the No.1;
What Tencent has done right including preprocessing, answer caching and building dedicated nodes. Now Manus is catching the imagination of AI monetization, Tencent can possible benefit more.


Surprise! The Biggest Beneficiary of Cloud DeepSeek Is Tencent...Will Manus Be the Same?

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

The HSI PUT: Hedging Strategies for an Overextended Rally

The HSI Index is defying gravity, up over 30% from its recent lows, but our models suggest it is very overbought, indicating a potential...

Nico Rosti

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (March 6)

Hong Kong continues its secular bull market outperforming global markets over the last year. After advancing more than 20% this year, the market...

David Mudd

Alibaba (9988 HK): Trends in CALL Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts

Alibaba stock rally prompts closure of lower in-the-money calls, while higher out-of-the-money strikes gain popularity. Active trading expected in...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK): Trends in PUT Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts

Alibaba's rally pushes put strikes deep out-of-the-money, creating opportunities in the 120-140 range for effective hedging.

Gaudenz Schneider

Surprise! The Biggest Beneficiary of Cloud DeepSeek Is Tencent...Will Manus Be the Same?

DeepSeek-R1's integration into Tencent's AI assistant "Yuanbao" improves user experience and boosts the latter users to 17 mn. Tencent also did a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The HSI PUT: Hedging Strategies for an Overextended Rally

​The HSI Index is defying gravity, up over 30% from its recent lows, but our models suggest it is very overbought, indicating a potential...

Nico Rosti

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (March 6)

Hong Kong continues its secular bull market outperforming global markets over the last year. After advancing more than 20% this year, the market...

David Mudd

Alibaba (9988 HK): Trends in CALL Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts

​Alibaba stock rally prompts closure of lower in-the-money calls, while higher out-of-the-money strikes gain popularity. Active trading expected in...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK): Trends in PUT Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts

​Alibaba's rally pushes put strikes deep out-of-the-money, creating opportunities in the 120-140 range for effective hedging.

Gaudenz Schneider

Surprise! The Biggest Beneficiary of Cloud DeepSeek Is Tencent...Will Manus Be the Same?

​DeepSeek-R1's integration into Tencent's AI assistant "Yuanbao" improves user experience and boosts the latter users to 17 mn. Tencent also did a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The HSI Index is defying gravity, up over 30% from its recent lows, but our models suggest it is very overbought, indicating a potential...

Alibaba stock rally prompts closure of lower in-the-money calls, while higher out-of-the-money strikes gain popularity. Active trading expected in...

Alibaba's rally pushes put strikes deep out-of-the-money, creating opportunities in the 120-140 range for effective hedging.

DeepSeek-R1's integration into Tencent's AI assistant "Yuanbao" improves user experience and boosts the latter users to 17 mn. Tencent also did a...