Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$16+bn a day this past 5-day week. A comedown from the previous week. Net buying OK at just over +US$550mm/day. One-third of the previous week.</li>
<li>Last week's reco was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> up 9.8% on the week, and H/A spread contracted 6.2%.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$16+bn a day this past 5-day week. A comedown from the previous week. Net buying OK at just over +US$550mm/day. One-third of the previous week.
Last week's reco was Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) up 9.8% on the week, and H/A spread contracted 6.2%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, Inida ECM flows continued unabated with more deals being launched.</li>
<li>On the placements front as well, India saw over US$2bn worth of deals during the week.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Inida ECM flows continued unabated with more deals being launched.
On the placements front as well, India saw over US$2bn worth of deals during the week.


ECM Weekly (11 August 2025)-Bharti, Eternal, Paytm, LG CNS, Guming, JSW, Bluestone, SICC, Roborock

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will go to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.</li>
<li>There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).</li>
</ul>


There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.
The largest inflows will go to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.
There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 8th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, Meituan, Li Auto, China Mobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 8th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, Meituan, Li Auto, China Mobile.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 8th): Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, Meituan, Li Auto, China Mobile

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>After a hesitant start, the shares are now trading well above the listing price, leaving its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors well in the money.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their lockup soon.
After a hesitant start, the shares are now trading well above the listing price, leaving its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors well in the money.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry - US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH

SOUTHBOUND net flows continue positive. Gross flows down ~20%wow, NET flows -65%wow. ETFs sold bigly, rotation into Tech (whether INFO TECH or...

Travis Lundy

ECM Weekly (11 August 2025)-Bharti, Eternal, Paytm, LG CNS, Guming, JSW, Bluestone, SICC, Roborock

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There could be 3 constituent changes in Sep. A big FAF increase is forecast for Horizon Robotics. Plenty of capping changes. Put together, that...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 8th): Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, Meituan, Li Auto, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, Meituan, Li Auto, China Mobile.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry - US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their...

Sumeet Singh

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