Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:794:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:794:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP)</a> targets an 8% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP) vs. Nissan Motor (7201 JP) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Going long Nissan Motor (7201 JP) and short Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP) targets an 8% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Nissan (7201 JP) Vs Mitsubishi (7211 JP): Alliance Partners, Diverging Shares

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After rejecting SG Fleet's $3.60/share NBIO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/element-fleet-management-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24511:1" rel="noopener">Element Fleet (EFN CN)</a> tabled a A$3.80/share NBIO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fleetpartners-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:339:1" rel="noopener">FleetPartners (FPR AU)</a>, increasing to A$4.00/share with exclusive DD. FleetPartners has now rejected that exclusivity.</li>
<li>SG Fleet has returned with a revised A$4/share NBIO (no exclusivity). And now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">ORIX (8591 JP)</a> has thrown its hat into the ring with a A$3.80/share NBIO (also no exclusivity).</li>
<li>FleetPartners is mulling all three proposals. A$4/share is looking full. And fair. </li>
</ul>


After rejecting SG Fleet's $3.60/share NBIO, Element Fleet (EFN CN) tabled a A$3.80/share NBIO for FleetPartners (FPR AU), increasing to A$4.00/share with exclusive DD. FleetPartners has now rejected that exclusivity.
SG Fleet has returned with a revised A$4/share NBIO (no exclusivity). And now ORIX (8591 JP) has thrown its hat into the ring with a A$3.80/share NBIO (also no exclusivity).
FleetPartners is mulling all three proposals. A$4/share is looking full. And fair. 


FleetPartners (FPR AU) Dings Element's Exclusivity. SG Fleet Returns. ORIX Joins The Party

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Market: The broader Topix Index ended the week 59 points, or -2.6%,</li>
<li>
Movers: Kusuri No Aoki Holdings shares rose sharply this week after the Japanese drugstore operator's first-quarter profit climbed (+49% yoy)</li>
<li>
Activist Watch: Dalton have also taken significant positions in Rinnai and Nitta</li>
</ul>



Market: The broader Topix Index ended the week 59 points, or -2.6%,

Movers: Kusuri No Aoki Holdings shares rose sharply this week after the Japanese drugstore operator's first-quarter profit climbed (+49% yoy)

Activist Watch: Dalton have also taken significant positions in Rinnai and Nitta


Japan Weekly | Kusuri No Aoki, Inpex, Mit Motors, Rinnai

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Japan

MITSUBISHI MOTORS CORPORATION develops and manufactures passenger cars and its related parts.  The Company has production facilities in Japan, the US, and Thailand.  Mitsubishi Motors Corp provides vehicle-related financing and leasing service through its subsidiary.

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Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP)

Nissan (7201 JP) Vs Mitsubishi (7211 JP): Alliance Partners, Diverging Shares

8% target return as alliance partners Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors diverge, creating a fresh pair trade opportunity. Essential for quantitative...

Gaudenz Schneider

FleetPartners (FPR AU) Dings Element's Exclusivity. SG Fleet Returns. ORIX Joins The Party

The Australian had the inside track that Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) may join the bidding process. FleetPartners announced this morning Sumitomo,...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Weekly | Kusuri No Aoki, Inpex, Mit Motors, Rinnai

Japanese market declines as Topix Index falls 2.6%, while Kusuri No Aoki Holdings sees profit rise and Dalton takes positions in Rinnai and Nitta.

Mark Chadwick

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nissan (7201 JP) Vs Mitsubishi (7211 JP): Alliance Partners, Diverging Shares

8% target return as alliance partners Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors diverge, creating a fresh pair trade opportunity. Essential for quantitative...

Gaudenz Schneider

FleetPartners (FPR AU) Dings Element's Exclusivity. SG Fleet Returns. ORIX Joins The Party

The Australian had the inside track that Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) may join the bidding process. FleetPartners announced this morning Sumitomo,...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Weekly | Kusuri No Aoki, Inpex, Mit Motors, Rinnai

​Japanese market declines as Topix Index falls 2.6%, while Kusuri No Aoki Holdings sees profit rise and Dalton takes positions in Rinnai and Nitta.

Mark Chadwick

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Japanese market declines as Topix Index falls 2.6%, while Kusuri No Aoki Holdings sees profit rise and Dalton takes positions in Rinnai and Nitta.