HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2024 results appear to be improving, but there’s no large-scale/sustainable new increment with high certainty in revenue end.Fosun Pharma would rely on reducing costs/selling loss-making projects to recover profit/cash flow.</li>
<li>Financial performance in 2025 could be under pressure due to VBP. Fosun Pharm is also mired in a huge guarantee quagmire. International business expansion is facing fierce market competition.</li>
<li>There could be a “valuation discount” for Fosun Pharma due to the concerns on its business model and undervaluation could be a norm. Our recommendation is to invest Henlius directly.</li>
</ul>


2024 results appear to be improving, but there’s no large-scale/sustainable new increment with high certainty in revenue end.Fosun Pharma would rely on reducing costs/selling loss-making projects to recover profit/cash flow.
Financial performance in 2025 could be under pressure due to VBP. Fosun Pharm is also mired in a huge guarantee quagmire. International business expansion is facing fierce market competition.
There could be a “valuation discount” for Fosun Pharma due to the concerns on its business model and undervaluation could be a norm. Our recommendation is to invest Henlius directly.


Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK/600196 CH) - The Concerns Behind 2024 Results and the Outlook

<ul>
<li>Given new policy recommendations, it is only a matter of time before HPV vaccination is included in the national immunization program, which is detrimental to HPV vaccine companies.</li>
<li>MNCs have seen a inflection point in performance growth in 2024 in China. Although VBP/NRDL negotiation are negative factors, is it also due to any consideration to withdraw from China?</li>
<li>Fosun Pharma has agreed to sell its entire stake in United Family Healthcare to Calcite Gem Investments Group for US$124.1 million. We shared our views about the deal.</li>
</ul>


Given new policy recommendations, it is only a matter of time before HPV vaccination is included in the national immunization program, which is detrimental to HPV vaccine companies.
MNCs have seen a inflection point in performance growth in 2024 in China. Although VBP/NRDL negotiation are negative factors, is it also due to any consideration to withdraw from China?
Fosun Pharma has agreed to sell its entire stake in United Family Healthcare to Calcite Gem Investments Group for US$124.1 million. We shared our views about the deal.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.23)-Fosun Pharma Sells United Family Healthcare, MNC's Inflection Point

Event-Driven

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Fosun Pharma is just “a platform” and its performance mainly relies on the contributions of subsidiaries. However, such investment-driven business model has led to the current performance difficulties.</li>
<li>Although the motivation/underlying logic for Fosun Pharma to privatize Henlius are solid, we don’t know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun's system.</li>
<li>If, for example, Fosun Pharma finds more important acquisitions/capital expenditures, the priority of Henlius’ privatization could fall. So, we think if it takes too long, there may be more uncertainties.</li>
</ul>


Fosun Pharma is just “a platform” and its performance mainly relies on the contributions of subsidiaries. However, such investment-driven business model has led to the current performance difficulties.
Although the motivation/underlying logic for Fosun Pharma to privatize Henlius are solid, we don’t know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun's system.
If, for example, Fosun Pharma finds more important acquisitions/capital expenditures, the priority of Henlius’ privatization could fall. So, we think if it takes too long, there may be more uncertainties.


Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

<ul>
<li>The past “infrastructure-driven demand model” in medical devices has become “an updated model”. The future reasonable demand for medical devices may fall back to a quarter of pre anti-corruption levels.</li>
<li>Top innovative pharmaceutical companies worth investing in need to meet certain conditions. Currently, there is still a gap between Chinese pharmaceutical companies and companies like Regeneron in various aspects.</li>
<li>Henlius is of great strategic significance for Fosun Pharma, which actually increases the privatization success rate. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be based on PE/VC firms not traditional pharma.</li>
</ul>


The past “infrastructure-driven demand model” in medical devices has become “an updated model”. The future reasonable demand for medical devices may fall back to a quarter of pre anti-corruption levels.
Top innovative pharmaceutical companies worth investing in need to meet certain conditions. Currently, there is still a gap between Chinese pharmaceutical companies and companies like Regeneron in various aspects.
Henlius is of great strategic significance for Fosun Pharma, which actually increases the privatization success rate. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be based on PE/VC firms not traditional pharma.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.8) - Fosun Pharma, Medical Device Outlook, Biotech Investment Criteria

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 155 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 72.7% as of Jun 13th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -5.0ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, energy, health care and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Tigermed, Bank Of Chongqing, Sinopec Oilfield Service, Livzon Pharmaceutical, COSCO Shipping Energy.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 155 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 72.7% as of Jun 13th.
The average A-H premium changed by -5.0ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, energy, health care and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Tigermed, Bank Of Chongqing, Sinopec Oilfield Service, Livzon Pharmaceutical, COSCO Shipping Energy.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 13th): Tigermed, Bank Of Chongqing, Sinopec Oilfield Service

China

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. is a pharmaceutical company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures genetic medicines, Chinese traditional medicines, diagnostic products, and medical instruments, provides technology, marketing, and advertising services, as well as invests in import and export trading.

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)

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Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK/600196 CH) - The Concerns Behind 2024 Results and the Outlook

Fosun Pharma's financial performance in 2025/2026 could be under pressure due to VBP. There could be “valuation discount” due to the concerns on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.23)-Fosun Pharma Sells United Family Healthcare, MNC's Inflection Point

National immunization program likely to include HPV vaccination. MNCs in China see an inflection point, potential withdrawal. Fosun Pharma sells...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.8) - Fosun Pharma, Medical Device Outlook, Biotech Investment Criteria

Business model of medical devices is shifting, leading to potential underperformance. There's a gap between Chinese Biotech and top players....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 13th): Tigermed, Bank Of Chongqing, Sinopec Oilfield Service

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Tigermed, Bank Of Chongqing, Sinopec Oilfield Service,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK/600196 CH) - The Concerns Behind 2024 Results and the Outlook

​Fosun Pharma's financial performance in 2025/2026 could be under pressure due to VBP. There could be “valuation discount” due to the concerns on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.23)-Fosun Pharma Sells United Family Healthcare, MNC's Inflection Point

​National immunization program likely to include HPV vaccination. MNCs in China see an inflection point, potential withdrawal. Fosun Pharma sells...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

​Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.8) - Fosun Pharma, Medical Device Outlook, Biotech Investment Criteria

Business model of medical devices is shifting, leading to potential underperformance. There's a gap between Chinese Biotech and top players....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 13th): Tigermed, Bank Of Chongqing, Sinopec Oilfield Service

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Tigermed, Bank Of Chongqing, Sinopec Oilfield Service,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Fosun Pharma's financial performance in 2025/2026 could be under pressure due to VBP. There could be “valuation discount” due to the concerns on...

National immunization program likely to include HPV vaccination. MNCs in China see an inflection point, potential withdrawal. Fosun Pharma sells...

Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...