Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Preliminary consumption and tourism data from the Chinese New Year started to come out last Sunday.  While growth rates clearly weakened compared to previous years, they are in line with the “soft-landing” expectation.

Preliminary consumption and tourism data from the Chinese New Year started to come out last Sunday.  While growth rates clearly weakened compared to previous years, they are in line with the “soft-landing” expectation. 

CNY 2019 Consumption/Tourism Preliminary Data: Decelerating But Better Than Many Feared

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their respective downtrends. Additionally, cyclical Sectors Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing exhibit early signs of price and RS bottoms throughout Europe, Japan, and EM.  In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable opportunities within these cyclical Sectors, and provide a technical appraisal of major global indexes.

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their respective downtrends. Additionally, cyclical Sectors Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing exhibit early signs of price and RS bottoms throughout Europe, Japan, and EM.  In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable opportunities within these cyclical Sectors, and provide a technical appraisal of major global indexes.

Global Equity Strategy: Global Outlook Improving

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Galaxy Entertainment Group / Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/806" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> exhibits some valid chart support in the form of a key low at 61.8% retracement and physical price support at the 40 level. This low should stay in place for 2019.Price and RSI wedge formations are building steam for an upside breakout. MACD bull divergence and the triangle breakout back in November will provide forward upside energy. MACD triangles are some of the most powerful chart set ups.Currently at an attractive risk to reward support zone for an entry with a reasonably tight stop.

Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) exhibits some valid chart support in the form of a key low at 61.8% retracement and physical price support at the 40 level. This low should stay in place for 2019.Price and RSI wedge formations are building steam for an upside breakout. MACD bull divergence and the triangle breakout back in November will provide forward upside energy. MACD triangles are some of the most powerful chart set ups.Currently at an attractive risk to reward support zone for an entry with a reasonably tight stop.

Galaxy Entertainment Bullish Set up for a Breakout

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Since autumn of 2014, the HK-Shanghai Connect, and later the HK-Shenzhen Connect mechanisms have provided means for mainland investors to buy Hong Kong-listed stocks. We have been tracking the H/A relationships and the Southbound flows per name on a weekly basis and occasionally writing commentary about it since late 2016. This report provides a brief synopsis of the SOUTHBOUND flows into Hong Kong-listed stocks over the course of 2018, by sector, by average percentage change in mainland ownership of HK shares outstanding subject to the Connect mechanisms, and the top and bottom five names per sector per quarter.

Since autumn of 2014, the HK-Shanghai Connect, and later the HK-Shenzhen Connect mechanisms have provided means for mainland investors to buy Hong Kong-listed stocks. We have been tracking the H/A relationships and the Southbound flows per name on a weekly basis and occasionally writing commentary about it since late 2016. This report provides a brief synopsis of the SOUTHBOUND flows into Hong Kong-listed stocks over the course of 2018, by sector, by average percentage change in mainland ownership of HK shares outstanding subject to the Connect mechanisms, and the top and bottom five names per sector per quarter.

In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays.  Change in M1 typically led VIP growth by 2-3 quarters. Change in VIP GGR growth led Mass GGR by 1 month.  M1 growth in China peaked at 33.2% in Q4 2009, driven by Beijing’s stimulus program to fend off the slowdown from the global financial crisis started in the US in 2008 spreading to Europe in 2009. VIP GGR growth peaked at 99% YoY in Q2 2010 and Mass up 37% immediately after.  The latest credit cycle in China peaked in Q3 2016, with M1 up 25%, 3 quarters ahead of VIP growth peaking at 35%. (Exhibit 1)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/438/original/1.jpg?1547412238" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75438"></figure>

In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays.  Change in M1 typically led VIP growth by 2-3 quarters. Change in VIP GGR growth led Mass GGR by 1 month.  M1 growth in China peaked at 33.2% in Q4 2009, driven by Beijing’s stimulus program to fend off the slowdown from the global financial crisis started in the US in 2008 spreading to Europe in 2009. VIP GGR growth peaked at 99% YoY in Q2 2010 and Mass up 37% immediately after.  The latest credit cycle in China peaked in Q3 2016, with M1 up 25%, 3 quarters ahead of VIP growth peaking at 35%. (Exhibit 1)

Macau Gaming - Historical Correlation B/T Gaming GGR and M1

Hong Kong

Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited, through its subsidiary, operates casino, hotel and other entertainment facilities in Macau. The company also manufactures sells and distributes construction materials.

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Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)

CNY 2019 Consumption/Tourism Preliminary Data: Decelerating But Better Than Many Feared

Preliminary consumption and tourism data from the Chinese New Year started to come out last Sunday. While growth rates clearly weakened compared...

JL Warren Capital

Global Equity Strategy: Global Outlook Improving

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their...

Vermilion Research

Galaxy Entertainment Bullish Set up for a Breakout

Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) exhibits some valid chart support in the form of a key low at 61.8% retracement and physical price support at...

Thomas Schroeder

2018 HK-Connect SouthBound In a Nutshell

Since autumn of 2014, the HK-Shanghai Connect, and later the HK-Shenzhen Connect mechanisms have provided means for mainland investors to buy Hong...

Travis Lundy

Macau Gaming - Historical Correlation B/T Gaming GGR and M1

In previous credit cycles managed by Beijing, VIP and Mass GGR demonstrated a close correlation to M1 albeit with delays. Change in M1 typically...

JL Warren Capital

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