Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index / Technical Analysis

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is breaking out from a two-year base. Relative strength (vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US) depicts a similar pattern; after lagging since mid-2015, its RS trend has slowly rounded higher, resulting in the recent breakout. Combined, this warrants an overweight.Today’s report is a country by country review of leadership and actionable themes within the region, including stock recommendations.

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is breaking out from a two-year base. Relative strength (vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US) depicts a similar pattern; after lagging since mid-2015, its RS trend has slowly rounded higher, resulting in the recent breakout. Combined, this warrants an overweight.Today’s report is a country by country review of leadership and actionable themes within the region, including stock recommendations.

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Based on our research and checks, we estimate that the average daily revenue (ADR) in Macau gaming sector reached ~730 mn MOP during the period of Jul 1-20.  Furthermore, we estimate that VIP and mass segment grew ~43% and 10% MTD year-over-year, accelerating from 35% and 8% in Q2, respectively. According to Bloomberg on July 14, Macau’s largest junket, Sun City (~33% of VIP market by rolling volume), distributed a memo to its customers and staff saying that the Public Security Bureau recently…

Based on our research and checks, we estimate that the average daily revenue (ADR) in Macau gaming sector reached ~730 mn MOP during the period of Jul 1-20.  Furthermore, we estimate that VIP and mass segment grew ~43% and 10% MTD year-over-year, accelerating from 35% and 8% in Q2, respectively. According to Bloomberg on July 14, Macau’s largest junket, Sun City (~33% of VIP market by rolling volume), distributed a memo to its customers and staff saying that the Public Security Bureau recently…

Macau Jul Update: Daily GGR Rising 25+% YoY

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

The shambolic Republican healthcare reform effort is now dead – a vote to simply repeal Obamacare without any replacement looks unlikely as the focus turns to next year’s mid-term elections.A bipartisan effort to rein in healthcare costs (including medications) and hence surging insurance premiums is now feasible - the recent rally in US biotech would be cut short in that scenario.Although US data like retail sales remains soft, the removal of healthcare uncertainty should prove bullish over the…

The shambolic Republican healthcare reform effort is now dead – a vote to simply repeal Obamacare without any replacement looks unlikely as the focus turns to next year’s mid-term elections.A bipartisan effort to rein in healthcare costs (including medications) and hence surging insurance premiums is now feasible - the recent rally in US biotech would be cut short in that scenario.Although US data like retail sales remains soft, the removal of healthcare uncertainty should prove bullish over the…

Republican Healthcare Plan Implodes, as Quant Investing Boom Fails to Deliver...

<div class="content-highlight">
Outbound Flight Passengers Down 4% YoY 
South Korea Down 57%, Macau Up 38%
</div>The outbound flight passenger data in June continues to demonstrate strong visitations to Macau, up 38% year-over-year (Exhibit 1).  Forward-looking summer flight bookings to Macau also looks strong.  Coupling this trend with robust VIP rolling in Macau moth-to-date (July), we see ~27% overall GGR growth in July with daily GGR of ~730 mm MOP (Exhibit 2 and 3).On the other hand, there is no sign of recovery for Chinese…


Outbound Flight Passengers Down 4% YoY 
South Korea Down 57%, Macau Up 38%
The outbound flight passenger data in June continues to demonstrate strong visitations to Macau, up 38% year-over-year (Exhibit 1).  Forward-looking summer flight bookings to Macau also looks strong.  Coupling this trend with robust VIP rolling in Macau moth-to-date (July), we see ~27% overall GGR growth in July with daily GGR of ~730 mm MOP (Exhibit 2 and 3).On the other hand, there is no sign of recovery for Chinese…

Chinese Outbound Tourism Monthly Data June 2017 - Macau Strong; South Korean and Taiwan Slump

This week, the Macau gaming stocks were under pressure due to 1) a miss of the monthly GGR growth expectation in June (up 26% year-over-year vs. consensus 27%) and 2) the suspension of cash withdrawals via Unionpay cards on “non-KYC” ATM machines.  On July 3rd, the Unionpay Macau Monetary Authority announced that cash withdrawals via Unionpay cards at “non-KYC” ATMs without facial and ID recognition functions were to be suspended on July 4th and will only be reactivated when the cards are…

This week, the Macau gaming stocks were under pressure due to 1) a miss of the monthly GGR growth expectation in June (up 26% year-over-year vs. consensus 27%) and 2) the suspension of cash withdrawals via Unionpay cards on “non-KYC” ATM machines.  On July 3rd, the Unionpay Macau Monetary Authority announced that cash withdrawals via Unionpay cards at “non-KYC” ATMs without facial and ID recognition functions were to be suspended on July 4th and will only be reactivated when the cards are…

Macau Gaming Update: July GGR Off to a Strong Start

Hong Kong

Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited, through its subsidiary, operates casino, hotel and other entertainment facilities in Macau. The company also manufactures sells and distributes construction materials.

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Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)

Asia: Developing Leadership

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is...

Vermilion Research

Macau Jul Update: Daily GGR Rising 25+% YoY

Based on our research and checks, we estimate that the average daily revenue (ADR) in Macau gaming sector reached ~730 mn MOP during the period of...

JL Warren Capital

Republican Healthcare Plan Implodes, as Quant Investing Boom Fails to Deliver...

The shambolic Republican healthcare reform effort is now dead – a vote to simply repeal Obamacare without any replacement looks unlikely as the...

Sean Maher

Chinese Outbound Tourism Monthly Data June 2017 - Macau Strong; South Korean and Taiwan Slump

Outbound Flight Passengers Down 4% YoY South Korea Down 57%, Macau Up 38% The outbound flight passenger data in June continues to demonstrate...

JL Warren Capital

Macau Gaming Update: July GGR Off to a Strong Start

This week, the Macau gaming stocks were under pressure due to 1) a miss of the monthly GGR growth expectation in June (up 26% year-over-year vs....

JL Warren Capital

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