IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)</a> scored an own goal by failing to provide an update on the balance sheet in the update on 13 February. The results are next week.   </li>
<li>There is a whirlwind of uncertainty surrounding potential fines and Star is in desperate need to recapitalise its balance sheet to avoid breaching covenants. </li>
<li>Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the details of its equity raise are disclosed.</li>
</ul>



Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) scored an own goal by failing to provide an update on the balance sheet in the update on 13 February. The results are next week.   
There is a whirlwind of uncertainty surrounding potential fines and Star is in desperate need to recapitalise its balance sheet to avoid breaching covenants. 
Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the details of its equity raise are disclosed.


Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Entertaining Known Unknowns

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Star Entertainment Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In its earnings update, troubled Aussie casino operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment (SGR AU)</a> said revenue was down 1% on pre-COVID levels, and expects FY23 EBITDA of $330mn-$360mn vs A$525mn in FY19.</li>
<li>But the big news was the possible $400mn to $1.6bn non-cash impairment charge in relation to disciplinary fines from regulators and new casino duties. </li>
<li>Shares tanked and are currently trading around a lifetime low. One for the brave or one to ignore?</li>
</ul>


In its earnings update, troubled Aussie casino operator Star Entertainment (SGR AU) said revenue was down 1% on pre-COVID levels, and expects FY23 EBITDA of $330mn-$360mn vs A$525mn in FY19.
But the big news was the possible $400mn to $1.6bn non-cash impairment charge in relation to disciplinary fines from regulators and new casino duties. 
Shares tanked and are currently trading around a lifetime low. One for the brave or one to ignore?


Star Entertainment: Imminent Fund Raising?

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg is reporting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1" rel="noopener">Genting Singapore (GENS SP)</a> has been attracting suitors, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-resorts-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16227:1" rel="noopener">MGM Resorts International (MGM US)</a>.</li>
<li>With Macau all-but emulating a Shanghai-style lockdown, including the recent shuttering of all casinos, large global casino operators will be looking to diversify their revenue base. </li>
<li>But with Singapore potentially emerging as Asia's go-to gaming destination going forward, it's unlikely the Lim family will exit their Genting flagship.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg is reporting Genting Singapore (GENS SP) has been attracting suitors, including MGM Resorts International (MGM US).
With Macau all-but emulating a Shanghai-style lockdown, including the recent shuttering of all casinos, large global casino operators will be looking to diversify their revenue base. 
But with Singapore potentially emerging as Asia's go-to gaming destination going forward, it's unlikely the Lim family will exit their Genting flagship.


Punters Take A Gamble on Genting Singapore

<ul>
<li>There are 46 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals this week: Cooke's rejected Offer for Tasmanian salmon producer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a>
</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net (LINK IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>
</li>
</ul>


There are 46 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals this week: Cooke's rejected Offer for Tasmanian salmon producer Tassal (TGR AU)

Key updates took place for: Link Administration (LNK AU), Link Net (LINK IJ), and Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)



Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tassal, Toshiba, Link Admin, Link Net

<ul>
<li>For the month of June, 12 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in June was ~32%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of June, 12 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in June was ~32%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


Australia

Crown Resorts Ltd. operates and manages gaming and entertainment facilities, bars, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas and retail outlets. The Company also develops hotels and conference centre facilities.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Crown Resorts (CWN AU)

Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Entertaining Known Unknowns

Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the...

Arun George

Star Entertainment: Imminent Fund Raising?

On balance, I think (most of) the bad news is baked in. The wild card is the impact of any new NSW tax regime. This is one investment for the brave.

David Blennerhassett

Punters Take A Gamble on Genting Singapore

I'd be buying here. Not on account of a possible takeover; but because Singapore's travel/gaming trajectory has greater clarity than that of Macau.

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tassal, Toshiba, Link Admin, Link Net

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: June 2022 Roundup

For the month of June, 12 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$12bn. The...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)