Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from their lockup soon.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kadokawa-dwango-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4152:1" rel="noopener">Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP)</a> shares rose 16% after <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/sony-talks-buy-media-powerhouse-behind-elden-ring-sources-say-2024-11-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. </li>
<li>The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.</li>
<li>The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.</li>
</ul>



Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP) shares rose 16% after Reuters reported that Sony Corp (6758 JP) is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. 
The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.
The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.


Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a>  reported 4Q and full-year FY09/2024 results yesterday. 4Q revenues beat guidance but reported OP fell below consensus due to a one-time loss of Winticket.</li>
<li>All three business segments have seen strong improvement but guidance for FY09/2025E is weak which we think was too conservative.</li>
<li>The newly launched Abema Premium with Ads plan and newly launched game IPs should drive growth and we expect CA to upgrade its guidance going forward.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)  reported 4Q and full-year FY09/2024 results yesterday. 4Q revenues beat guidance but reported OP fell below consensus due to a one-time loss of Winticket.
All three business segments have seen strong improvement but guidance for FY09/2025E is weak which we think was too conservative.
The newly launched Abema Premium with Ads plan and newly launched game IPs should drive growth and we expect CA to upgrade its guidance going forward.


High Conviction - CyberAgent: Market Overreacts to Conservative Guidance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a>  reported 3QFY09/24 results yesterday. Both revenue and OP grew YoY, while revenue beat consensus marginally, OP beat consensus by a huge margin.</li>
<li>All three business segments showed strong recovery with notable improvement in gaming business as newly released titles perform well including the newly released UMA MUSUME: Pretty Derby movie.</li>
<li>Media business reported OP for the second consecutive quarter and the company has plans to further strengthen monetisation around AbemaTV.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)  reported 3QFY09/24 results yesterday. Both revenue and OP grew YoY, while revenue beat consensus marginally, OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
All three business segments showed strong recovery with notable improvement in gaming business as newly released titles perform well including the newly released UMA MUSUME: Pretty Derby movie.
Media business reported OP for the second consecutive quarter and the company has plans to further strengthen monetisation around AbemaTV.


High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery Across All Three Business Segments

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for Shift Up which starts trading on 11 July. Shift Up is one of the most anticipated IPOs in Korea this year.</li>
<li>Our base case (6 months - 1 year) target price of Shift Up is 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the IPO price.</li>
<li><em><strong>We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by 100% or more from the IPO price on the first day. </strong></em></li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for Shift Up which starts trading on 11 July. Shift Up is one of the most anticipated IPOs in Korea this year.
Our base case (6 months - 1 year) target price of Shift Up is 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the IPO price.
We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by 100% or more from the IPO price on the first day. 


Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO

Japan

CyberAgent, Inc. operates blog media website, Ameba.  The Company also operates internet advertising agency, foreign exchange trading website, and creates PC and mobile contents such as advertisements and games. CyberAgent invests in companies with internet related business.

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CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)

Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from...

Sumeet Singh

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

While an acquisition has a strong strategic rationale, the upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a...

Arun George

High Conviction - CyberAgent: Market Overreacts to Conservative Guidance

CA's FY09/2025E guidance seems too conservative. Newly launched Abema Premium with Ads plan similar to Netflix (in 2022) should drive user and...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery Across All Three Business Segments

CyberAgent Inc reported strong 3QFY09/24 results with revenue and OP beating consensus. New game titles continue to perform well while Media...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO

Shift Up starts trading on 11 July. We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from...

Sumeet Singh

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

While an acquisition has a strong strategic rationale, the upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a...

Arun George

High Conviction - CyberAgent: Market Overreacts to Conservative Guidance

CA's FY09/2025E guidance seems too conservative. Newly launched Abema Premium with Ads plan similar to Netflix (in 2022) should drive user and...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery Across All Three Business Segments

​CyberAgent Inc reported strong 3QFY09/24 results with revenue and OP beating consensus. New game titles continue to perform well while Media...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO

Shift Up starts trading on 11 July. We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by...

Douglas Kim

CyberAgent Inc reported strong 3QFY09/24 results with revenue and OP beating consensus. New game titles continue to perform well while Media...