Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Axalta Coating Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AkzoNobel: Evaluating Strategic Options in a Consolidating Industry AkzoNobel’s boards have unanimously rejected a conditional cash proposal from Nippon Paint Holdings.</li><li>At the same time, management continues to recommend the proposed merger of equals with Axalta, citing stronger long-term industrial benefits.</li><li> The situation reflects broader consolidation themes in the global coatings sector, with additional interest from Sherwin-Williams in select businesses forming part of the backdrop.</li></ul>

AkzoNobel: Evaluating Strategic Options in a Consolidating Industry AkzoNobel’s boards have unanimously rejected a conditional cash proposal from Nippon Paint Holdings.At the same time, management continues to recommend the proposed merger of equals with Axalta, citing stronger long-term industrial benefits. The situation reflects broader consolidation themes in the global coatings sector, with additional interest from Sherwin-Williams in select businesses forming part of the backdrop.

In-depth report: AkzoNobel | The Axalta deal just lost its gloss

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | new remuneration proposals provoke criticism; Axalta rejected offer too • PostNL | FY25 net loss on the USO at EUR 35m is higher than initially expected • PostNL | new tariffs for urgent (D+1) deliveries after migration to D+2 for USO mail • Bnode | agreement on new CLA for bpost • E-commerce & Logistics | EC imposes EUR 200m fine on Temu</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | new remuneration proposals provoke criticism; Axalta rejected offer too • PostNL | FY25 net loss on the USO at EUR 35m is higher than initially expected • PostNL | new tariffs for urgent (D+1) deliveries after migration to D+2 for USO mail • Bnode | agreement on new CLA for bpost • E-commerce & Logistics | EC imposes EUR 200m fine on Temu

AXTA US - What's News in Amsterdam - 29 May (AkzoNobel | PostNL | Bnode | E-commerce & Logistics)

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Axalta Coating Systems reported first quarter 2026 results reflecting modest top-line pressure alongside operational improvements and cash generation records.</li><li>Net sales declined slightly by 1% year-over-year to $1.25 billion, mainly due to reduced volumes in Performance Coatings, particularly in North America, partially offset by favorable foreign currency effects and acquisitions.</li><li>Adjusted EBITDA stood at $259 million with a margin of 20.6%, down compared to the previous year but above expectations, supported by effective cost containment and lower variable expenses.</li></ul>

Axalta Coating Systems reported first quarter 2026 results reflecting modest top-line pressure alongside operational improvements and cash generation records.Net sales declined slightly by 1% year-over-year to $1.25 billion, mainly due to reduced volumes in Performance Coatings, particularly in North America, partially offset by favorable foreign currency effects and acquisitions.Adjusted EBITDA stood at $259 million with a margin of 20.6%, down compared to the previous year but above expectations, supported by effective cost containment and lower variable expenses.

Axalta Coating Systems: The $600 Million Synergy Test Behind The AkzoNobel Merger!

<ul><li>Axalta Coating Systems reported a fourth quarter and full year marked by strong margin discipline, record cash generation, and continued exposure to macro-driven volume pressure across several end markets.</li><li>The company delivered fourth quarter net sales of approximately $1.3 billion with growth in three of four regions, offset by weakness in North America tied largely to distributor destocking and softer industrial demand.</li><li>Adjusted EBITDA of $272 million translated into a margin of 21.5 percent, extending a multi-quarter trend of margins at or above internal targets despite lower volumes.</li></ul>

Axalta Coating Systems reported a fourth quarter and full year marked by strong margin discipline, record cash generation, and continued exposure to macro-driven volume pressure across several end markets.The company delivered fourth quarter net sales of approximately $1.3 billion with growth in three of four regions, offset by weakness in North America tied largely to distributor destocking and softer industrial demand.Adjusted EBITDA of $272 million translated into a margin of 21.5 percent, extending a multi-quarter trend of margins at or above internal targets despite lower volumes.

Inside Axalta’s Cost Reset: Procurement, Footprint Optimization, and a New Earnings Baseline!

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.</li>
<li>Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.</li>
<li>At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.</li>
</ul>


The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.
Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.
At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.


Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

United States

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. manufactures, markets and distributes coatings systems. The Company offers products and services which includes paint, color matching tools, application technologies, and customer  training and business management systems. Axalta Coating Systems serves automotive, transportation,  general industrial, and architectural and decorative sectors.

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Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA US)

In-depth report: AkzoNobel | The Axalta deal just lost its gloss

AkzoNobel: Evaluating Strategic Options in a Consolidating Industry AkzoNobel’s boards have unanimously rejected a conditional cash proposal from...

The IDEA!

AXTA US - What's News in Amsterdam - 29 May (AkzoNobel | PostNL | Bnode | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | new remuneration proposals provoke criticism; Axalta rejected offer too • PostNL | FY25 net loss on the USO at EUR...

The IDEA!

Axalta Coating Systems: The $600 Million Synergy Test Behind The AkzoNobel Merger!

Axalta Coating Systems reported first quarter 2026 results reflecting modest top-line pressure alongside operational improvements and cash...

Baptista Research

Inside Axalta’s Cost Reset: Procurement, Footprint Optimization, and a New Earnings Baseline!

Axalta Coating Systems reported a fourth quarter and full year marked by strong margin discipline, record cash generation, and continued exposure...

Baptista Research

Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

Akzo–Axalta combines strong industrial logic with sizable synergies, but value skews to Akzo. Axalta trades above deal terms, implying a bump....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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