European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong> EU clearance appears increasingly likely</strong> following reports of a proposed vehicle-refinish divestiture, although the scope of the remedy, disposal proceeds and impact on synergies remain undisclosed.</li>
<li>Our revised synergy DCF values the $600m annual savings programme at €3.61bn after a 25% execution-risk discount. Losing $50–100m of annual savings would reduce that valuation by €0.33–0.66bn.</li>
<li>AkzoNobel's Asian disposals have secured attractive multiples, but the merger spread is just 0.2%. We see insufficient compensation for the remaining risks and would not initiate an arbitrage position.</li>
</ul>



 EU clearance appears increasingly likely following reports of a proposed vehicle-refinish divestiture, although the scope of the remedy, disposal proceeds and impact on synergies remain undisclosed.
Our revised synergy DCF values the $600m annual savings programme at €3.61bn after a 25% execution-risk discount. Losing $50–100m of annual savings would reduce that valuation by €0.33–0.66bn.
AkzoNobel's Asian disposals have secured attractive multiples, but the merger spread is just 0.2%. We see insufficient compensation for the remaining risks and would not initiate an arbitrage position.


AkzoNobel / Axalta: EU Remedies Take Shape

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Axalta Coating Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | agreement to sell SE Asian Deco business to Nippon Paints • Ziggo Group | Antwerp court tightens rules around Telenet’s “fiber” marketing • Corporate agenda | week 41 - 46</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | agreement to sell SE Asian Deco business to Nippon Paints • Ziggo Group | Antwerp court tightens rules around Telenet’s “fiber” marketing • Corporate agenda | week 41 - 46

AXTA US - What's News in Amsterdam - 5 October (AkzoNobel | Ziggo Group | Corporate agenda)

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora: EUR 5.7bn in pension buy-outs so far this year • Unilever | sells Zwitsal to Royal Sanders • Dutch telcos | DELTA Fiber opens new growth avenue through Open Dutch Fiber • Allegro | post earnings call comment</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora: EUR 5.7bn in pension buy-outs so far this year • Unilever | sells Zwitsal to Royal Sanders • Dutch telcos | DELTA Fiber opens new growth avenue through Open Dutch Fiber • Allegro | post earnings call comment

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Axalta Coating Systems reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, reflecting a continuation of operational improvements and solid progress toward strategic milestones.</li><li>The company posted net sales of approximately $1.35 billion, up 3% year-over-year, marking the highest quarterly sales in two years.</li><li>Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $305 million, a 5% increase from the prior year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.7%, which is the highest for the second quarter in many years.</li></ul>

Axalta Coating Systems reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, reflecting a continuation of operational improvements and solid progress toward strategic milestones.The company posted net sales of approximately $1.35 billion, up 3% year-over-year, marking the highest quarterly sales in two years.Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $305 million, a 5% increase from the prior year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.7%, which is the highest for the second quarter in many years.

Axalta Coating Systems’ AkzoNobel Merger: Can $600 Million In Synergies Deliver?

<ul>
<li>The interloper process is over. With Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams gone, the market has reverted to pricing Akzo through the economics and completion probability of the Axalta merger.</li>
<li>Axalta's discount to adjusted deal value narrowed from 30.4% to 3.7%, indicating investors again view merger completion as the base case.</li>
<li>Completion appears likely, but risk/reward has deteriorated. Investors are risking roughly 13% downside to capture 3.7% upside, implying a 3.5x downside/upside ratio and limited valuation upside.</li>
</ul>


The interloper process is over. With Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams gone, the market has reverted to pricing Akzo through the economics and completion probability of the Axalta merger.
Axalta's discount to adjusted deal value narrowed from 30.4% to 3.7%, indicating investors again view merger completion as the base case.
Completion appears likely, but risk/reward has deteriorated. Investors are risking roughly 13% downside to capture 3.7% upside, implying a 3.5x downside/upside ratio and limited valuation upside.


The Paint Has Dried on Nippon: Reassessing the Axalta Merger Spread

United States

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. manufactures, markets and distributes coatings systems. The Company offers products and services which includes paint, color matching tools, application technologies, and customer  training and business management systems. Axalta Coating Systems serves automotive, transportation,  general industrial, and architectural and decorative sectors.

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Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA US)

AkzoNobel / Axalta: EU Remedies Take Shape

EU remedies are taking shape for AkzoNobel/Axalta. We revisit the value of expected synergies, assess recent asset disposals and examine whether...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AXTA US - What's News in Amsterdam - 5 October (AkzoNobel | Ziggo Group | Corporate agenda)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | agreement to sell SE Asian Deco business to Nippon Paints • Ziggo Group | Antwerp court tightens rules around...

The IDEA!

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora:...

The IDEA!

Axalta Coating Systems’ AkzoNobel Merger: Can $600 Million In Synergies Deliver?

Axalta Coating Systems reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, reflecting a continuation of operational improvements and...

Baptista Research

The Paint Has Dried on Nippon: Reassessing the Axalta Merger Spread

Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams have walked away. With the only alternative transaction gone, we reassess the Akzo–Axalta merger, spread and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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