European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

The Paint Has Dried on Nippon: Reassessing the Axalta Merger Spread

Akzo in Play: Can the Axalta Merger Beat Nippon Paint's €73 Cash?

Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong> EU clearance appears increasingly likely</strong> following reports of a proposed vehicle-refinish divestiture, although the scope of the remedy, disposal proceeds and impact on synergies remain undisclosed.</li>
<li>Our revised synergy DCF values the $600m annual savings programme at €3.61bn after a 25% execution-risk discount. Losing $50–100m of annual savings would reduce that valuation by €0.33–0.66bn.</li>
<li>AkzoNobel's Asian disposals have secured attractive multiples, but the merger spread is just 0.2%. We see insufficient compensation for the remaining risks and would not initiate an arbitrage position.</li>
</ul>



 EU clearance appears increasingly likely following reports of a proposed vehicle-refinish divestiture, although the scope of the remedy, disposal proceeds and impact on synergies remain undisclosed.
Our revised synergy DCF values the $600m annual savings programme at €3.61bn after a 25% execution-risk discount. Losing $50–100m of annual savings would reduce that valuation by €0.33–0.66bn.
AkzoNobel's Asian disposals have secured attractive multiples, but the merger spread is just 0.2%. We see insufficient compensation for the remaining risks and would not initiate an arbitrage position.


AkzoNobel / Axalta: EU Remedies Take Shape

Axalta Coating Systems

AkzoNobel / Axalta: EU Remedies Take Shape