European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

The Paint Has Dried on Nippon: Reassessing the Axalta Merger Spread

Nippon Paint's €7.5bn Proposal Reprices the Akzo–Axalta Merger

AkzoNobel / Axalta: EU Remedies Take Shape

Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Akzo rejected a €73/share cash proposal from Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams despite a 45% premium. At 10.8x NTM EBITDA, the offer appears attractive but not obviously full value.</li>
<li>The disclosed approach shifts focus from Axalta merger arbitrage to strategic optionality. Akzo trades 10% below the rejected offer, while Axalta's adjusted merger spread has widened to 30%.</li>
<li>A probability-weighted scenario analysis suggests value of €71.8/share versus €65.66 today. Downside appears supported by strategic interest, while upside remains exposed to sweetened bids.</li>
</ul>


Akzo rejected a €73/share cash proposal from Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams despite a 45% premium. At 10.8x NTM EBITDA, the offer appears attractive but not obviously full value.
The disclosed approach shifts focus from Axalta merger arbitrage to strategic optionality. Akzo trades 10% below the rejected offer, while Axalta's adjusted merger spread has widened to 30%.
A probability-weighted scenario analysis suggests value of €71.8/share versus €65.66 today. Downside appears supported by strategic interest, while upside remains exposed to sweetened bids.


Akzo in Play: Can the Axalta Merger Beat Nippon Paint's €73 Cash?

Akzo Nobel NV

Akzo in Play: Can the Axalta Merger Beat Nippon Paint's €73 Cash?