Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Non-Controversial changes in asset allocation will provide a big boost to earnings.</li>
<li>Demand problems brewing in the JGB market may provide the catalyst</li>
<li>The path is clear to enter new businesses after parent lowers  stake below 50%</li>
</ul>


Non-Controversial changes in asset allocation will provide a big boost to earnings.
Demand problems brewing in the JGB market may provide the catalyst
The path is clear to enter new businesses after parent lowers  stake below 50%


Japan Post Bank: From Stagnation to Opportunity

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, we had a look at a few of the upcoming listings in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>On the placements front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> managed to do better than its last deal while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> didn't do too well.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we had a look at a few of the upcoming listings in Hong Kong.
On the placements front, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) managed to do better than its last deal while Austal Ltd (ASB AU) didn't do too well.


ECM Weekly (17th Mar 2025) -JPB, Recruit, Austal, BoB, Chifeng, Guarantee, Anjoy, Softcare, AvePoint

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Offering of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> is not taking place the way "the right pattern" would suggest, but last time was kind of special. This time is different.</li>
<li>Last time was a "second IPO" and coincided with a US regional bank crisis. This time the offering is smaller outright, and much smaller as a portion of float. </li>
<li>Pricing is Monday. It hasn't moved much vs JPH. It needs to move more to be attractive. And there is still a bit of overhang to come.</li>
</ul>


The Offering of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is not taking place the way "the right pattern" would suggest, but last time was kind of special. This time is different.
Last time was a "second IPO" and coincided with a US regional bank crisis. This time the offering is smaller outright, and much smaller as a portion of float. 
Pricing is Monday. It hasn't moved much vs JPH. It needs to move more to be attractive. And there is still a bit of overhang to come.


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) - Not Cheap Enough Vs Others, or Holdings

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Since the offer announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>/JPB’s shares have declined by 2.5%. On 3 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 13.3 million shares for JPY20 billion.</li>
<li>To understand JPB's trading pattern, it is instructive to examine its 2023 offering, <a target="_blank">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a>/JPI’s 2019 offering, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/ JPH’s 2021 offering.</li>
<li>JPB’s shares follow the trading pattern playbook of its 2023 and JPH’s 2021 offerings, in which investors buying the offer were rewarded with positive returns at the payment date.</li>
</ul>


Since the offer announcement, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)/JPB’s shares have declined by 2.5%. On 3 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 13.3 million shares for JPY20 billion.
To understand JPB's trading pattern, it is instructive to examine its 2023 offering, Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)/JPI’s 2019 offering, and Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ JPH’s 2021 offering.
JPB’s shares follow the trading pattern playbook of its 2023 and JPH’s 2021 offerings, in which investors buying the offer were rewarded with positive returns at the payment date.


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.</li>
<li>JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.</li>
<li>We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about updates and look at discounts vs performance for past secondary deals.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about updates and look at discounts vs performance for past secondary deals.


Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates - Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Japan Post Bank: From Stagnation to Opportunity

Non-controversial changes in asset allocation can boost earnings, with a potential catalyst from demand problems in JGB market. Clear path to...

Rikki Malik

ECM Weekly (17th Mar 2025) -JPB, Recruit, Austal, BoB, Chifeng, Guarantee, Anjoy, Softcare, AvePoint

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh