Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Shanghai Accord 2.0 is well underway</li>
<li>US Federal Reserve steps up its liquidity injections into US money markets</li>
<li>Attempts by other economies to weaken their currencies against the USD will reinforce Fed easing</li>
<li>Gold and cryptocurrencies favoured. Asian and Emerging Markets later</li>
</ul>


Shanghai Accord 2.0 is well underway
US Federal Reserve steps up its liquidity injections into US money markets
Attempts by other economies to weaken their currencies against the USD will reinforce Fed easing
Gold and cryptocurrencies favoured. Asian and Emerging Markets later


The US Fed Steps-Up the Pace – Updating The Shanghai Accord 2.0

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Commodities

Demand for safe-haven assets like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-gold-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US)</a>  should rise further
<ul>
<li>US real rates fall to just 34bps from nearly 100bps in January.</li>
<li>German 10-year yield below 0% and negative yielding assets totalling nearly US$13 trn.</li>
<li>Hedge fund positioning remains relatively neutral despite the recent rally, suggesting more buying potential.</li>
</ul>

Demand for safe-haven assets like Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US)  should rise further

US real rates fall to just 34bps from nearly 100bps in January.
German 10-year yield below 0% and negative yielding assets totalling nearly US$13 trn.
Hedge fund positioning remains relatively neutral despite the recent rally, suggesting more buying potential.


Gold Supported by Easy Money - Breakout to US$1,500 Looks Possible

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

We turned bullish gold in the 1,260-70 range (1,268) just above key trendline and price support given odds of the bull wedge breaking higher which is now unfolding. Our tactical target remains 1,350-70 where a stall is due to build steam to clear 1,370 that would open the way to reach for macro pivot resistance (old pivot support).A mushroom rally on a breakout would fit with our macro bull cycle structure.Gold shares offer a great leveraged play on gold. GDX is a buy on weakness and the stage is set for a bullish breakout.We expect a G20 failed trade agreement would ignite momentum to clear breakout resistance. SPX downside volatility into Q3 will also be gold supportive.

We turned bullish gold in the 1,260-70 range (1,268) just above key trendline and price support given odds of the bull wedge breaking higher which is now unfolding. Our tactical target remains 1,350-70 where a stall is due to build steam to clear 1,370 that would open the way to reach for macro pivot resistance (old pivot support).A mushroom rally on a breakout would fit with our macro bull cycle structure.Gold shares offer a great leveraged play on gold. GDX is a buy on weakness and the stage is set for a bullish breakout.We expect a G20 failed trade agreement would ignite momentum to clear breakout resistance. SPX downside volatility into Q3 will also be gold supportive. 

Central banks around the world have signaled their willingness to return back to the Easy Money Playbook in their quest to re-stimulate economic growth and inflation. This significant shift in market expectations has been the key factor driving the recent rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> prices, and it appears to have legs.  As such, we are closing our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8632" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US)</a> short.

Central banks around the world have signaled their willingness to return back to the Easy Money Playbook in their quest to re-stimulate economic growth and inflation. This significant shift in market expectations has been the key factor driving the recent rally in Gold (GOLD COMDTY) prices, and it appears to have legs.  As such, we are closing our Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US) short.

Gold: Dovish Central Banks May Sustain Rally; Closing Our GLD Short

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Wednesday's rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday's sell-off.  All the major averages remain in downtrends and there continues to be an absence of bottoming patterns. Concerns that we have highlighted over the past several months continue to lead us to our intact cautious outlook.  In this report we highlight important technical levels and indicators, and highlight a bright spot for investors within the Consumer Staples Sector.

Wednesday's rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday's sell-off.  All the major averages remain in downtrends and there continues to be an absence of bottoming patterns. Concerns that we have highlighted over the past several months continue to lead us to our intact cautious outlook.  In this report we highlight important technical levels and indicators, and highlight a bright spot for investors within the Consumer Staples Sector.

United States

SPDR Gold Shares is an investment fund incorporated in the USA.  The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. The Trust holds gold and is expected from time to time to issue Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and to distribute gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets.

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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)

The US Fed Steps-Up the Pace – Updating The Shanghai Accord 2.0

Shanghai Accord 2.0 is well underway US Federal Reserve steps up its liquidity injections into US money markets Attempts by other economies to...

Michael J. Howell

Gold Supported by Easy Money - Breakout to US$1,500 Looks Possible

Demand for safe-haven assets like Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US) should rise further US real rates fall to just 34bps from nearly 100bps in...

Charles Spencer

Macro Bullish Gold

We turned bullish gold in the 1,260-70 range (1,268) just above key trendline and price support given odds of the bull wedge breaking higher which...

Thomas Schroeder

Gold: Dovish Central Banks May Sustain Rally; Closing Our GLD Short

Central banks around the world have signaled their willingness to return back to the Easy Money Playbook in their quest to re-stimulate economic...

Charles Spencer

Bearish U.S. Outlook Intact

Wednesday's rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday's sell-off. All the major...

Vermilion Research

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