IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Langham Hospitality Investments / Event-Driven

Langham Hospitality Investments (1270 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/langham-hospitality-inv-ss" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:760:1" rel="noopener">Langham Hospitality Inv Ss (1270 HK)</a> received a notice from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eagle-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:758:1" rel="noopener">Great Eagle Holdings (41 HK)</a>, the largest unitholder, that it intends to present a detailed proposal for scheme privatisation.</li>
<li>The privatisation interest is unsurprising, as the unit price has declined by 43% over the last twelve months. A tough 2023 did not help the declining sentiment.</li>
<li>Our methodology for triangulating the potential offer price results in a range of HK$0.63-1.76. Our best guess is an offer of around HK$0.85, a 47% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



Langham Hospitality Inv Ss (1270 HK) received a notice from Great Eagle Holdings (41 HK), the largest unitholder, that it intends to present a detailed proposal for scheme privatisation.
The privatisation interest is unsurprising, as the unit price has declined by 43% over the last twelve months. A tough 2023 did not help the declining sentiment.
Our methodology for triangulating the potential offer price results in a range of HK$0.63-1.76. Our best guess is an offer of around HK$0.85, a 47% premium to the last close.


Langham Hospitality Investments (1270 HK): Great Eagle (41 HK)’s Possible Scheme Privatisation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing / Index Rebalance

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

<ul>
<li>The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.</li>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a> and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.</li>
</ul>


The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.
The changes for the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.
Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>400+ days ago, the TCC Group bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a> at just over 1.05x NAV failed on a combination of vocal minority opposition and minority apathy.</li>
<li>FHT has dramatically outperformed plummeting peers over the last few months on hope TCC might re-up that bid, but weaker peers and CRE markets suggest financing could be tougher.</li>
<li>Nothing is impossible, but it might make more sense for TCC to up its stake by stealth here rather than brute force. Earnings are 7 November.</li>
</ul>


400+ days ago, the TCC Group bid for Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) at just over 1.05x NAV failed on a combination of vocal minority opposition and minority apathy.
FHT has dramatically outperformed plummeting peers over the last few months on hope TCC might re-up that bid, but weaker peers and CRE markets suggest financing could be tougher.
Nothing is impossible, but it might make more sense for TCC to up its stake by stealth here rather than brute force. Earnings are 7 November.


Frasers Hospitality - Will TCC Renew Its Takeover Offer? Market Prices Bet Yes Ahead of Earnings

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Shenzhen Exodus: Hong Kong's retail moat is dead. Weekend mainland visits hit 530,000, vaporizing Link's localized consumption base and driving severe negative rental reversions across its portfolio.</li>
<li>Valuation Freefall &amp; Cap Rate Crisis: The Greater China property collapse continues. Expanding cap rates have incinerated asset values, pushing net gearing to a dangerous 23.9% as property valuations bleed.</li>
<li>Yield Trap in a "Higher for Longer" Era: With US rates stuck, Link’s dividend yield spread offers zero compensation for structural decay. HK$200M cost-cut target cannot stop the NPI hemorrhage.</li>
</ul>


The Shenzhen Exodus: Hong Kong's retail moat is dead. Weekend mainland visits hit 530,000, vaporizing Link's localized consumption base and driving severe negative rental reversions across its portfolio.
Valuation Freefall &amp; Cap Rate Crisis: The Greater China property collapse continues. Expanding cap rates have incinerated asset values, pushing net gearing to a dangerous 23.9% as property valuations bleed.
Yield Trap in a "Higher for Longer" Era: With US rates stuck, Link’s dividend yield spread offers zero compensation for structural decay. HK$200M cost-cut target cannot stop the NPI hemorrhage.


The Suburban Mirage: Short Link REIT (0823.HK) As Shenzhen Leakage Triggers Structural Collapse

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the impact of rate hike to Asia real estate, with recent capital flow and underlying drivers.  We recommended SHORT NWD, LINK, and LONG JHR, Keppel DC and Embassy</li>
<li>Inflation-Hedged assets, including Japanese hospitality and supply-constrained sectors like Singapore data centers, remain the undisputed winners for institutional capital in this newly confirmed tightening cycle.</li>
<li>Distress is creating generational entry points, as rising base rates push over-leveraged legacy developers into insurmountable refinancing walls, perfectly positioning pristine balance sheets to capitalize.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the impact of rate hike to Asia real estate, with recent capital flow and underlying drivers.  We recommended SHORT NWD, LINK, and LONG JHR, Keppel DC and Embassy
Inflation-Hedged assets, including Japanese hospitality and supply-constrained sectors like Singapore data centers, remain the undisputed winners for institutional capital in this newly confirmed tightening cycle.
Distress is creating generational entry points, as rising base rates push over-leveraged legacy developers into insurmountable refinancing walls, perfectly positioning pristine balance sheets to capitalize.


The Rate Hike and Capital Flow: 5 Conviction Trades in Asian Real Estate

Hong Kong

Link REIT is Asia's largest real estate investment trust, managing a diversified portfolio of retail facilities, car parks, offices, and logistics assets across Hong Kong, Chinese Mainland, Australia, Singapore, and the UK. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Link REIT (823 HK)

Langham Hospitality Investments (1270 HK): Great Eagle (41 HK)’s Possible Scheme Privatisation

Our methodology for triangulating the potential offer price results in a range of HK$0.63-1.76. Our best guess is an offer of around HK$0.85, a 47%...

Arun George

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Frasers Hospitality - Will TCC Renew Its Takeover Offer? Market Prices Bet Yes Ahead of Earnings

Frasers Hospitality Trust is trading as if TCC might make another offer. But peers in Singapore/Asia are getting crushed, and globally CRE is in...

Travis Lundy

The Suburban Mirage: Short Link REIT (0823.HK) As Shenzhen Leakage Triggers Structural Collapse

Hong Kong's retail moat is dead. Weekend mainland visits hit 530,000, vaporizing Link's localized consumption base and driving severe negative...

Jacob Cheng

The Rate Hike and Capital Flow: 5 Conviction Trades in Asian Real Estate

We analyzed the impact of rate hike to Asia real estate, with recent capital flow and underlying drivers. We recommended SHORT NWD, LINK, and LONG...

Jacob Cheng

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