Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 106.3% as of May 17th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -7.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, real estate, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, Sinopec, PetroChina, China Telecom, CICC, GWM.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 106.3% as of May 17th.
The average A-H premium changed by -7.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, real estate, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, Sinopec, PetroChina, China Telecom, CICC, GWM.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 17th): 44 Stocks at 52 Week High

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

China Everbright Bank Co A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Based on the close of 8 January, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shaanxi-coal-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11254:1" rel="noopener">Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-bank-co-ltd-675cb9b4-f4fb-4317-9df7-75e3849a2f5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:885:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Bank Co A (601818 CH)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-ningbo-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4452:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Ningbo Co Ltd A (002142 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aier-eye-hospital-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1103:1" rel="noopener">Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the inclusions compared to the deletions. Then there are cash and carry positions that will be rebalanced, adding to flow.</li>
</ul>


Based on the close of 8 January, there could be two changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) in March.

Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH) and China Everbright Bank Co A (601818 CH) could replace Bank Of Ningbo Co Ltd A (002142 CH) and Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH). 
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the inclusions compared to the deletions. Then there are cash and carry positions that will be rebalanced, adding to flow.


Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Expected in March

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/213/768/original/image_768460236451623962508577.png?1623962508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="213768"></figure>

Source: Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Related Insights
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-consumers-remain-on-the-sidelines-as-their-home-equity-grows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53210" rel="noopener">China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/glut-and-famine-we-might-see-snow-in-china-this-summer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52840" rel="noopener">Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-ppi-peaks-while-cpi-eases-tightening-fears" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52778" rel="noopener">China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-exports-disappoint-but-it-s-still-early-in-the-game" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52728" rel="noopener">China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/glut-and-famine-china-s-monetary-conditions-a-notch-tighter-in-may" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51799" rel="noopener">Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/icbc-the-bond-identity-a-zero-growth-dividend-discount-story" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51463" rel="noopener">ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boc-aviation-2588-hk-the-stars-don-t-look-bigger-but-they-do-look-brighter" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52283" rel="noopener">BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter</a>

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).



Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook





Source: Our analysis




Related Insights
China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 
Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 
China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 
China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 
Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May 
ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 
BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

China International Capital Corporation / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND's buy streak was interrupted again this past week, but they still net bought, as did NORTHBOUND. HK stocks continued bouncing VERY hard. Hs outperformed As very strongly.</li>
<li>As had a chance to catch up. Did not. Liquid Hs outperformed their As by 4.8% from 30-April through 10-May. Wide premia narrowed more than narrow premia.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND's buy streak was interrupted again this past week, but they still net bought, as did NORTHBOUND. HK stocks continued bouncing VERY hard. Hs outperformed As very strongly.
As had a chance to catch up. Did not. Liquid Hs outperformed their As by 4.8% from 30-April through 10-May. Wide premia narrowed more than narrow premia.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 May 2024):  Excellent Quiddity Portfolio Gains as Hs Rally Huge Vs As

<ul>
<li>There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.</li>
<li>Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.
There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.
Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

China

China Everbright Bank Company Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, domestic settlement, currency trading, and other services. China Everbright Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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China Everbright Bank Co A (601818 CH)

A-H Premium Weekly (May 17th): 44 Stocks at 52 Week High

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Shenhua, Sinopec, PetroChina, China Telecom, CICC, GWM.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Expected in March

There could be two changes for the 2823HK/2822HK ETFs in March. There is bunching among some of the adds; that needs to be monitored. Impact on one...

Brian Freitas

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Our Silver Linings Playbook outlines our views on the China financials names that are most likely to remain resilient in the face of macro...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

A/H Premium Tracker (To 10 May 2024): Excellent Quiddity Portfolio Gains as Hs Rally Huge Vs As

AH Premia narrowed significantly. As an average, they are down near 52wk lows, with most of the move having taken place in the last 3 weeks. Some...

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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