A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>IMAX Corp, listed on the NYSE, is a 71% shareholder of IMAX China, a HKEX listed subsidiary - in charge of the release of IMAX films in Greater China.</li><li>IMAX HK is rather illiquid - 7.15 HK is a mere $0.93 USD - with no investor presentations, no earnings calls - again, as is common with ideas in this blog, we are dealing with a company that is more or less “unownable” for most, flies under the radar, and therefore sports a, for a lack of a better word, shite valuation.</li><li>Whilst IMAX Corp, the parent company, trades at ~8x EBITDA, the “backwater” subsidiary IMAX HK, trades at a mere ~5x EBITDA, despite margins being more than 10 pts higher.</li></ul>

IMAX Corp, listed on the NYSE, is a 71% shareholder of IMAX China, a HKEX listed subsidiary - in charge of the release of IMAX films in Greater China.IMAX HK is rather illiquid - 7.15 HK is a mere $0.93 USD - with no investor presentations, no earnings calls - again, as is common with ideas in this blog, we are dealing with a company that is more or less “unownable” for most, flies under the radar, and therefore sports a, for a lack of a better word, shite valuation.Whilst IMAX Corp, the parent company, trades at ~8x EBITDA, the “backwater” subsidiary IMAX HK, trades at a mere ~5x EBITDA, despite margins being more than 10 pts higher.

Flagging a potentially interesting situation: IMAX China (HKG: 1970)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three for three. Three low-balled Hong Kong Offers, by way of Schemes, have now lapsed over the past ten weeks. </li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a> spectacularly failed back in May.</li>
<li>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dickson-concepts-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5052:1" rel="noopener">Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)</a> has followed suit. But the vote was (much) closer than it should have been.</li>
</ul>


Three for three. Three low-balled Hong Kong Offers, by way of Schemes, have now lapsed over the past ten weeks. 
Both Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) and Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) spectacularly failed back in May.
Now Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) has followed suit. But the vote was (much) closer than it should have been.


Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dickson-concepts-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5052:1" rel="noopener">Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)</a> shareholders have voted against Sir Poon’s HK$7.20 per share offer. The vote marginally failed the &lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders' rejection threshold.</li>
<li>While painful, this deal break was arguably the correct outcome as the offer was below the net cash and Dickson is cash generative on an underlying basis. </li>
<li>Unlike the last HK deal break (Soundwill), the price action over the last two days indicated a done deal. My estimated break price is HK$5.00 (30% downside to last close).</li>
</ul>



Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) shareholders have voted against Sir Poon’s HK$7.20 per share offer. The vote marginally failed the &lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders' rejection threshold.
While painful, this deal break was arguably the correct outcome as the offer was below the net cash and Dickson is cash generative on an underlying basis. 
Unlike the last HK deal break (Soundwill), the price action over the last two days indicated a done deal. My estimated break price is HK$5.00 (30% downside to last close).


Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion (533 HK)</a>'s spectacular Scheme fail, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill  (878 HK)</a> appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.</li>
<li>Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill's Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.</li>
<li>Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. </li>
</ul>


After Goldlion (533 HK)'s spectacular Scheme fail, Soundwill  (878 HK) appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.
Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill's Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.
Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. 


Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a> shareholders have voted against the Foo family’s HK$8.50 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably failed the value test.</li>
<li>Unlike the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> deal break, the price action over the last three days pointed to a deal break. Like previous deal breaks, this one offers hard lessons.</li>
<li>Soundwill has the fourth-highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$5.63, 13.2% below the last close.</li>
</ul>



Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) shareholders have voted against the Foo family’s HK$8.50 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably failed the value test.
Unlike the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break, the price action over the last three days pointed to a deal break. Like previous deal breaks, this one offers hard lessons.
Soundwill has the fourth-highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$5.63, 13.2% below the last close.


Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Hard Lessons from Another HK Arbageddon

Hong Kong

IMAX China Holding, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, broadcasts movies in theaters. IMAX China Holding serves customers in China.

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IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)

Flagging a potentially interesting situation: IMAX China (HKG: 1970)

Whilst IMAX Corp, the parent company, trades at ~8x EBITDA, the “backwater” subsidiary IMAX HK, trades at a mere ~5x EBITDA, despite margins being...

Acid Investments

Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

This is a consistently profitable company. The undisturbed price was $4.78. Yet the HSI is up ~12.8% since the Offer was announced, so perhaps...

David Blennerhassett

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon

While painful, this deal break was arguably the correct outcome as the offer was below the net cash. My estimated break price is HK$5.00 (30%...

Arun George

Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

The outcome for Soundwill was not a big surprise. However, expect current and future illiquid small-cap arbs to trade wide(r) if there is a whiff...

David Blennerhassett

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Hard Lessons from Another HK Arbageddon

Like previous deal breaks, this one offers hard lessons and suggests that HK merger arb is increasingly fraught with risk. My estimated deal-break...

Arun George

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