Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Inflation remains the biggest headwind but most retail formats will see growth in 2023 with e-commerce expected to become the largest channel in the next 18 months.</li>
<li>Supermarkets are ripe for consolidation as new competitors emerge from the discount sector and online while convenience stores will consolidate further in a saturated sector.</li>
<li>Department stores will rebound further but only the leading firms will survive in a contracting sector.</li>
</ul>


Inflation remains the biggest headwind but most retail formats will see growth in 2023 with e-commerce expected to become the largest channel in the next 18 months.
Supermarkets are ripe for consolidation as new competitors emerge from the discount sector and online while convenience stores will consolidate further in a saturated sector.
Department stores will rebound further but only the leading firms will survive in a contracting sector.


<ul>
<li>Inbound tourism only got going again from October but the pent up demand to visit Japan has meant a surge in visitors. </li>
<li>Since many tourists also have stuffed wallets due to curtailed spending during the pandemic and the Yen is at very low levels, there is much higher spending. </li>
<li>Key beneficiaries are listed below among department stores, premium fashion stores and drugstores.</li>
</ul>


Inbound tourism only got going again from October but the pent up demand to visit Japan has meant a surge in visitors. 
Since many tourists also have stuffed wallets due to curtailed spending during the pandemic and the Yen is at very low levels, there is much higher spending. 
Key beneficiaries are listed below among department stores, premium fashion stores and drugstores.


Inbound Tourism up 50%, Spending Almost at 2019 Levels

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Two of the biggest department store chains in Japan, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h2o-retailing-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17562:1" rel="noopener">H2 O Retailing (8242 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP)</a> are set to disclose FQ3 earnings this week.</li>
<li>The ones with FQ3 ending in November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> surprised to the upside with 6% and 8% price gains on earnings.</li>
<li>Our analysis indicates that H2O Retailing &amp; Isetan Mitsukoshi could deliver stronger FQ3 results. Thus, we would look to trade Japanese Department Stores before earnings this week.</li>
</ul>


Two of the biggest department store chains in Japan, H2 O Retailing (8242 JP) &amp; Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP) are set to disclose FQ3 earnings this week.
The ones with FQ3 ending in November, J Front Retailing (3086 JP) and Takashimaya (8233 JP) surprised to the upside with 6% and 8% price gains on earnings.
Our analysis indicates that H2O Retailing &amp; Isetan Mitsukoshi could deliver stronger FQ3 results. Thus, we would look to trade Japanese Department Stores before earnings this week.


Japanese Department Stores: An Opportunity to Trade FQ3 Earnings This Week

<ul>
<li>JR Takashimaya is a newbie in the world of department store retailing but has grown to become the fourth highest selling store in the two decades since it opened. </li>
<li>As a result, it is increasingly regarded by brands as the Nagoyan version of Isetan Shinjuku in Tokyo and Hankyu Umeda in Osaka.</li>
<li>The store is an example of Takashimaya's successful strategy to surround its key stores with more shopping facilities to suit all population segments, so driving traffic to the main store.</li>
</ul>


JR Takashimaya is a newbie in the world of department store retailing but has grown to become the fourth highest selling store in the two decades since it opened. 
As a result, it is increasingly regarded by brands as the Nagoyan version of Isetan Shinjuku in Tokyo and Hankyu Umeda in Osaka.
The store is an example of Takashimaya's successful strategy to surround its key stores with more shopping facilities to suit all population segments, so driving traffic to the main store.


<ul>
<li>More evidence is emerging that department stores will rely increasingly on wealthy VIP account holders to maintain sales in the future. </li>
<li>The wealthy are also getting younger and department stores are adapting, using digital services which are also cheaper to run.</li>
<li>With luxury prices up and the inbound trade also coming back strongly, the outlook for the better stores is positive – even though the sector overall will continue to contract.</li>
</ul>


More evidence is emerging that department stores will rely increasingly on wealthy VIP account holders to maintain sales in the future. 
The wealthy are also getting younger and department stores are adapting, using digital services which are also cheaper to run.
With luxury prices up and the inbound trade also coming back strongly, the outlook for the better stores is positive – even though the sector overall will continue to contract.


Luxury Boost for Japan's Department Stores

Japan

J. FRONT RETAILING CO., Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Daimaru and Matsuzakaya.  J. FRONT RETAILING operates department stores and supermarkets. The Company also manages subsidiaries which operate in wholesale businesses.

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J Front Retailing (3086 JP)

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Inbound Tourism up 50%, Spending Almost at 2019 Levels

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Luxury Boost for Japan's Department Stores

Japan's department store decline is overshadowing some resurgence in sales and, above all, profit among the better managed firms. Strong brands and...

Michael Causton

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