Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CIL reports 8.5% drop in June output, while private and captive mines post double-digit growth</li>
<li>Unusual monsoon, logistics bottlenecks, and subsidiary underperformance drag PSU volumes</li>
<li>Unless execution improves in Q2 and beyond, outlook on CIL remains cautious amid structural market shifts.</li>
</ul>


CIL reports 8.5% drop in June output, while private and captive mines post double-digit growth
Unusual monsoon, logistics bottlenecks, and subsidiary underperformance drag PSU volumes
Unless execution improves in Q2 and beyond, outlook on CIL remains cautious amid structural market shifts.


India Coal Sector Q1 FY26: Private Miners Surge, CIL Stumbles

<ul>
<li>Coal India reported flat EBITDA YoY in FY25, with lower e-auction realizations offset by cost control; record-high volumes but profitability impacted by NSR pressures.</li>
<li>FY26 guidance implies 7–8% offtake growth but appears largely aspirational given historical shortfalls; management remains cautious on realizations with weaker e-auction pricing and only modest FSA escalations.</li>
<li>Valuations appear cheap at ~6.7x FY25 EPS but are justified by margin risks from the FY27 wage hike and limited operating leverage on an already high volume base.</li>
</ul>


Coal India reported flat EBITDA YoY in FY25, with lower e-auction realizations offset by cost control; record-high volumes but profitability impacted by NSR pressures.
FY26 guidance implies 7–8% offtake growth but appears largely aspirational given historical shortfalls; management remains cautious on realizations with weaker e-auction pricing and only modest FSA escalations.
Valuations appear cheap at ~6.7x FY25 EPS but are justified by margin risks from the FY27 wage hike and limited operating leverage on an already high volume base.


Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging

<ul>
<li>COAL's production growth during Apr-Feb 25 has slowed to 1.5% yoy due to a high base effect and is unlikely to grow significantly in the near future</li>
<li>Regulated pricing mechanism means low correlation to international price movements. E-auction (10-12% of volumes) prices crash -25% yoy in line with international trends, impacting profitability</li>
<li>Single digit PE is in line with historic multiples. Wage renegotiations due in June 2026, rising coal production from captive producers, surge in renewable capacities are headwinds</li>
</ul>


COAL's production growth during Apr-Feb 25 has slowed to 1.5% yoy due to a high base effect and is unlikely to grow significantly in the near future
Regulated pricing mechanism means low correlation to international price movements. E-auction (10-12% of volumes) prices crash -25% yoy in line with international trends, impacting profitability
Single digit PE is in line with historic multiples. Wage renegotiations due in June 2026, rising coal production from captive producers, surge in renewable capacities are headwinds


Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Increased demand from power plants under construction outside  G-7 countries</li>
<li>There is constrained supply as with many other fossil fuels</li>
<li>We look at a basket of coal stocks with good balance sheets and increasing production</li>
</ul>


Increased demand from power plants under construction outside  G-7 countries
There is constrained supply as with many other fossil fuels
We look at a basket of coal stocks with good balance sheets and increasing production


Coal Is Back - The Real Inconvenient Truth

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meesho-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35872:1" rel="noopener">Meesho (1546271D IN)</a> raised around US$606m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Meesho is an e-commerce marketplace, offering a wide assortment of products ranging from low cost unbranded products, regional and national brands at affordable prices to consumers.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Meesho (1546271D IN) raised around US$606m in its India IPO.
Meesho is an e-commerce marketplace, offering a wide assortment of products ranging from low cost unbranded products, regional and national brands at affordable prices to consumers.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Meesho Ltd IPO Trading - Robust Overall Demand

India

Coal India Limited produces and markets coal and coal products, as well as provides related consulting services.

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Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)

India Coal Sector Q1 FY26: Private Miners Surge, CIL Stumbles

CIL's June output drops 8.5% due to monsoon, logistics issues, and underperforming subsidiaries, while private mines see growth. Outlook cautious...

Rahul Jain

Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging

Coal India's flat EBITDA in FY25 due to lower e-auction prices and NSR pressures, with FY26 guidance seen as aspirational and valuations justified...

Rahul Jain

Coal India (COAL IN) Value Trap

Coal production growth in India has slowed to 1.5% yoy, unlikely to see significant growth due to high base effect and other factors like wage...

Rahul Jain

Coal Is Back - The Real Inconvenient Truth

Growing demand for coal outside of G-7 countries is putting pressure on already limited supply, leading to opportunities in coal stocks with...

Rikki Malik

Meesho Ltd IPO Trading - Robust Overall Demand

Meesho Ltd (ML) raised around US$606m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the demand and the trading dynamics.

Akshat Shah

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India Coal Sector Q1 FY26: Private Miners Surge, CIL Stumbles

​CIL's June output drops 8.5% due to monsoon, logistics issues, and underperforming subsidiaries, while private mines see growth. Outlook cautious...

Rahul Jain

Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging

​Coal India's flat EBITDA in FY25 due to lower e-auction prices and NSR pressures, with FY26 guidance seen as aspirational and valuations justified...

Rahul Jain

Coal India (COAL IN) Value Trap

​Coal production growth in India has slowed to 1.5% yoy, unlikely to see significant growth due to high base effect and other factors like wage...

Rahul Jain

Coal Is Back - The Real Inconvenient Truth

​Growing demand for coal outside of G-7 countries is putting pressure on already limited supply, leading to opportunities in coal stocks with...

Rikki Malik

Meesho Ltd IPO Trading - Robust Overall Demand

Meesho Ltd (ML) raised around US$606m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the demand and the trading dynamics.

Akshat Shah

CIL's June output drops 8.5% due to monsoon, logistics issues, and underperforming subsidiaries, while private mines see growth. Outlook cautious...

Coal India's flat EBITDA in FY25 due to lower e-auction prices and NSR pressures, with FY26 guidance seen as aspirational and valuations justified...

Coal production growth in India has slowed to 1.5% yoy, unlikely to see significant growth due to high base effect and other factors like wage...

Growing demand for coal outside of G-7 countries is putting pressure on already limited supply, leading to opportunities in coal stocks with...