Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Indian Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>COAL's production growth during Apr-Feb 25 has slowed to 1.5% yoy due to a high base effect and is unlikely to grow significantly in the near future</li>
<li>Regulated pricing mechanism means low correlation to international price movements. E-auction (10-12% of volumes) prices crash -25% yoy in line with international trends, impacting profitability</li>
<li>Single digit PE is in line with historic multiples. Wage renegotiations due in June 2026, rising coal production from captive producers, surge in renewable capacities are headwinds</li>
</ul>


COAL's production growth during Apr-Feb 25 has slowed to 1.5% yoy due to a high base effect and is unlikely to grow significantly in the near future
Regulated pricing mechanism means low correlation to international price movements. E-auction (10-12% of volumes) prices crash -25% yoy in line with international trends, impacting profitability
Single digit PE is in line with historic multiples. Wage renegotiations due in June 2026, rising coal production from captive producers, surge in renewable capacities are headwinds


Coal India Ltd

Coal India (COAL IN) Value Trap