Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

India Coal Sector Q1 FY26: Private Miners Surge, CIL Stumbles

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Coal India reported flat EBITDA YoY in FY25, with lower e-auction realizations offset by cost control; record-high volumes but profitability impacted by NSR pressures.</li>
<li>FY26 guidance implies 7–8% offtake growth but appears largely aspirational given historical shortfalls; management remains cautious on realizations with weaker e-auction pricing and only modest FSA escalations.</li>
<li>Valuations appear cheap at ~6.7x FY25 EPS but are justified by margin risks from the FY27 wage hike and limited operating leverage on an already high volume base.</li>
</ul>


Coal India reported flat EBITDA YoY in FY25, with lower e-auction realizations offset by cost control; record-high volumes but profitability impacted by NSR pressures.
FY26 guidance implies 7–8% offtake growth but appears largely aspirational given historical shortfalls; management remains cautious on realizations with weaker e-auction pricing and only modest FSA escalations.
Valuations appear cheap at ~6.7x FY25 EPS but are justified by margin risks from the FY27 wage hike and limited operating leverage on an already high volume base.


Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging

Coal India Ltd

Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging