Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearly 90% of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> in deletion zone.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> are potential replacements with sector balance likely to come into play.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade over 13 days of delivery volume on the potential index changes.</li>
</ul>


Nearly 90% of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) in deletion zone.

Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN), Coal India Ltd (COAL IN) and Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) are potential replacements with sector balance likely to come into play.
Passive trackers will need to trade over 13 days of delivery volume on the potential index changes.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Wipro Deletion to Bring Sector Balance into Play

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CIL revenue at Rs 37,410 Cr (down 2% YoY, up 3% QoQ) stood largely in line with our and consensus estimates.</li><li>Reported EBITDA at Rs 11,338 Cr (up 21% YoY, down 13% QoQ), beat the consensus by 11%, led by lower RM costs (due to inventory build-up ahead of the peak summer which drove the cost of RM down) and change in the accounting policy for the stripping activity.</li><li>Adj. EBITDA excluding stripping activity missed our estimate by 12% at Rs 9,844 Cr (up 14% YoY, down 18% QoQ), mainly driven by higher employee and contractual expenses. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CIL revenue at Rs 37,410 Cr (down 2% YoY, up 3% QoQ) stood largely in line with our and consensus estimates.Reported EBITDA at Rs 11,338 Cr (up 21% YoY, down 13% QoQ), beat the consensus by 11%, led by lower RM costs (due to inventory build-up ahead of the peak summer which drove the cost of RM down) and change in the accounting policy for the stripping activity.Adj. EBITDA excluding stripping activity missed our estimate by 12% at Rs 9,844 Cr (up 14% YoY, down 18% QoQ), mainly driven by higher employee and contractual expenses. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal India - E-Auction Volumes Recover; Premiums Better Than Expected

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 5.8% in Apr’24 against the 1.2% return posted by Nifty 50, thereby beating the benchmark by a wide margin of 4.6%.</li><li>Over the last one year, the basket has gained 49%. Moreover, it gives us immense joy to inform you that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 284% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 144% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period.</li><li>In light of this, we continue to believe in our thematic approach to Top Picks selection.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 5.8% in Apr’24 against the 1.2% return posted by Nifty 50, thereby beating the benchmark by a wide margin of 4.6%.Over the last one year, the basket has gained 49%. Moreover, it gives us immense joy to inform you that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 284% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 144% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period.In light of this, we continue to believe in our thematic approach to Top Picks selection.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 14 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 7 could see passive outflows in May.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 14 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 7 could see passive outflows in May.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in May

<ul><li>AxisTop Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 46% in FY24, against the 28.6% return posted by the benchmark Nifty 50, implying a commendable outperformance of 17.5% over the benchmark.</li><li>On a YTD basis, this basket advanced by 6% vs. the Nifty returns of 2.7% for the same period.</li><li>We are extremely happy to share that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an astounding return of 263% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 141% return delivered by NIFTY 50 over the same period. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AxisTop Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 46% in FY24, against the 28.6% return posted by the benchmark Nifty 50, implying a commendable outperformance of 17.5% over the benchmark.On a YTD basis, this basket advanced by 6% vs. the Nifty returns of 2.7% for the same period.We are extremely happy to share that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an astounding return of 263% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 141% return delivered by NIFTY 50 over the same period. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the Month of April 2024

India

Coal India Limited produces and markets coal and coal products, as well as provides related consulting services.

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Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Wipro Deletion to Bring Sector Balance into Play

The June changes for the SENSEX should be announced post market close today. Adani Enterprises is an expected inclusion and the stock has zoomed...

Brian Freitas

Coal India - E-Auction Volumes Recover; Premiums Better Than Expected

CIL revenue at Rs 37,410 Cr (down 2% YoY, up 3% QoQ) stood largely in line with our and consensus estimates. Reported EBITDA at Rs 11,338 Cr (up...

Axis Direct

Axis Top Picks - May 2024

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 5.8% in Apr’24 against the 1.2% return posted by Nifty 50, thereby beating the benchmark...

Axis Direct

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in May

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

Axis Top Picks for the Month of April 2024

AxisTop Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 46% in FY24, against the 28.6% return posted by the benchmark Nifty 50, implying a commendable...

Axis Direct

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)