IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/china-mobile-explores-acquiring-hong-kong-telecom-firm-hkbn-sources-2023-04-18/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> is exploring a potential buyout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>. The shares surged 12.3% to HK$6.57, above I Squared’s rumoured HK$6.00 offer. </li>
<li>To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme offer of around HK$8.50 would likely be required.</li>
<li>PAG is also a rumoured bidder. The flurry of interest around HKBN suggests a good probability that one of the bidders will come through with a formal offer.</li>
</ul>



Reuters reported that China Mobile (600941 CH) is exploring a potential buyout of HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). The shares surged 12.3% to HK$6.57, above I Squared’s rumoured HK$6.00 offer. 
To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme offer of around HK$8.50 would likely be required.
PAG is also a rumoured bidder. The flurry of interest around HKBN suggests a good probability that one of the bidders will come through with a formal offer.


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-28/hong-kong-s-hkbn-is-said-to-get-1-billion-buyout-offer-from-hgc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> has received a takeover offer from HGC Global Communications at a valuation of more than US$1 billion (implies around HK$6 per share).</li>
<li>The shares rose 11.6% to HK$5.59 before entering a trading halt. The rumoured price is underwhelming compared to historical multiples and share prices. </li>
<li>HKBN has a relatively concentrated shareholder register which suggests that the rumoured takeover premium of around 20% is not going to cut it.</li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reportedHKBN Ltd (1310 HK) has received a takeover offer from HGC Global Communications at a valuation of more than US$1 billion (implies around HK$6 per share).
The shares rose 11.6% to HK$5.59 before entering a trading halt. The rumoured price is underwhelming compared to historical multiples and share prices. 
HKBN has a relatively concentrated shareholder register which suggests that the rumoured takeover premium of around 20% is not going to cut it.


HKBN (1310 HK): Trading Halt, HGC’s Rumoured Takeover Offer

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Administrative Court has dismissed the Thai Consumers Council petition to impose an injunction on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telenor-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22258:1" rel="noopener">Telenor ASA (TEL NO)</a> and CP Group are currently seeking clarification on certain NBTC conditions such as tariff adjustments and MVNOs network capacity. </li>
<li>Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks.</li>
</ul>


The Administrative Court has dismissed the Thai Consumers Council petition to impose an injunction on the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.

Telenor ASA (TEL NO) and CP Group are currently seeking clarification on certain NBTC conditions such as tariff adjustments and MVNOs network capacity. 
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks.


DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition

<ul>
<li>Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.</li>
<li>The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.</li>
<li>Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. </li>
</ul>


Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.
The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. 


DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

<ul>
<li>The NBTC Board approved the merger by acknowledging by a vote of 3-2 the intention for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> to merge. </li>
<li>The NBTC issued several conditions on the mergers, such as price ceilings, service quality, innovation and spectrum-sharing with MVNOs. The implementation of the conditions will be monitored for five years.</li>
<li>The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied swap ratio of 10.221x.</li>
</ul>


The NBTC Board approved the merger by acknowledging by a vote of 3-2 the intention for True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) to merge. 
The NBTC issued several conditions on the mergers, such as price ceilings, service quality, innovation and spectrum-sharing with MVNOs. The implementation of the conditions will be monitored for five years.
The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied swap ratio of 10.221x.


DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Clears the Deal with Conditions

Malaysia

Telekom Malaysia Berhad establishes, provides, and maintains telecommunication and related services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides payphone network, mobile telecommunication, public telephone, and leasing of optical fiber telecommunication system services. Telekom also manages and operates Kuala Lumpur Tower and provides intelligent security services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Telekom Malaysia (T MK)

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme...

Arun George

HKBN (1310 HK): Trading Halt, HGC’s Rumoured Takeover Offer

It will be tough to pull off privatisation at the rumoured valuation of more than US$1bn (around HK$6 per share). Nevertheless, the renewed...

Arun George

DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition

The Court ruling removes an impediment to the merger. Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of...

Arun George

DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

Merger completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and...

Arun George

DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Clears the Deal with Conditions

The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)