Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Core service revenue rose 6.8% YoY to Bt43.6bn, driven by growth across all segments from continued subscriber expansion and a focus on quality customers, lifting ARPU.</li><li>EBITDA margin rose to 57.8% from 53.0% in 3Q24 and 54.0% in the previous quarter. The improvement was driven by higher core service margin after the 2100MHz network rental contract with NT expired in August 2025, along with strict SG&amp;A cost control.</li><li>ADVANC posted 3Q25 net profit of Bt12.0bn (+9.6% QoQ, +37.0% YoY), beating our and the market’s estimates by 13.0% and 8.5% due to better-than-expected profitability.</li></ul>

Core service revenue rose 6.8% YoY to Bt43.6bn, driven by growth across all segments from continued subscriber expansion and a focus on quality customers, lifting ARPU.EBITDA margin rose to 57.8% from 53.0% in 3Q24 and 54.0% in the previous quarter. The improvement was driven by higher core service margin after the 2100MHz network rental contract with NT expired in August 2025, along with strict SG&amp;A cost control.ADVANC posted 3Q25 net profit of Bt12.0bn (+9.6% QoQ, +37.0% YoY), beating our and the market’s estimates by 13.0% and 8.5% due to better-than-expected profitability.

Advanced Info Service Plc. (ADVANC): Upbeat 3Q25 Profit...

<ul><li>We reiterate our Outperform call on ADVANC, supported by an attractive fundamental valuation with around 15% upside to our revised fair value and very limited tactical downside risk.</li><li>2025E core profit is expected to grow 20% YoY, outpacing peers. However, this sets a high base, limiting EPS growth to just 6% CAGR over 2025–27E, compared with the industry average of +13%.</li><li>We revise our 12-month fair value to Bt337 (from Bt343), with the required return raised to 4.5% (from 4.3%). This revision reflects a higher market risk premium assumption of 5.74% (from 5.3%) under our updated house view.</li></ul>

We reiterate our Outperform call on ADVANC, supported by an attractive fundamental valuation with around 15% upside to our revised fair value and very limited tactical downside risk.2025E core profit is expected to grow 20% YoY, outpacing peers. However, this sets a high base, limiting EPS growth to just 6% CAGR over 2025–27E, compared with the industry average of +13%.We revise our 12-month fair value to Bt337 (from Bt343), with the required return raised to 4.5% (from 4.3%). This revision reflects a higher market risk premium assumption of 5.74% (from 5.3%) under our updated house view.

ADVANCED INFO SERVICE Plc. (ADVANC): 3Q25E Profit Momentum Continues To Accelerate YoY

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The market lacked new catalysts, while blue-chip stocks took turns leading the index.</li><li>At least the index attempted to rebound and consistently held above the 1,250-point level.</li><li>We maintain a positive view that the index can hold above its support level and rebound.</li></ul>

The market lacked new catalysts, while blue-chip stocks took turns leading the index.At least the index attempted to rebound and consistently held above the 1,250-point level.We maintain a positive view that the index can hold above its support level and rebound.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 22, 2025

<ul><li>The US 10-year bond yield edged up slightly from 4.12% to 4.15% after New York Fed President John Williams cautioned that the sharper-than-expected slowdown in November inflation may have been driven by practical data-collection factors, implying that the Fed does not need to rush into rate cuts.</li><li>The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy interest rate by 0.25% to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, and signaled further rate hikes in 2026, citing that real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) remain very low.</li><li>The passenger service charge (PSC) issue for AOT has returned as an overhang, after the Minister of Transport stated that although the Civil Aviation Board (CAB) has already approved the proposal, the process still requires the Transport Minister’s signature.</li></ul>

The US 10-year bond yield edged up slightly from 4.12% to 4.15% after New York Fed President John Williams cautioned that the sharper-than-expected slowdown in November inflation may have been driven by practical data-collection factors, implying that the Fed does not need to rush into rate cuts.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy interest rate by 0.25% to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, and signaled further rate hikes in 2026, citing that real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) remain very low.The passenger service charge (PSC) issue for AOT has returned as an overhang, after the Minister of Transport stated that although the Civil Aviation Board (CAB) has already approved the proposal, the process still requires the Transport Minister’s signature.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 22, 2025

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 19th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Bangchak, Ngern Tid Lor, CP Foods, Gulf Energy Development, Gulf Energy Development, Cp Foods, Bangchak.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 19th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.3bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Bangchak, Ngern Tid Lor, CP Foods, Gulf Energy Development, Gulf Energy Development, Cp Foods, Bangchak.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 19th): Intouch, Bangchak, Ngern Tid Lor, CP Foods

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

Advanced Info Service Plc. (ADVANC): Upbeat 3Q25 Profit...

Core service revenue rose 6.8% YoY to Bt43.6bn, driven by growth across all segments from continued subscriber expansion and a focus on quality...

Krungthai XSpring

ADVANCED INFO SERVICE Plc. (ADVANC): 3Q25E Profit Momentum Continues To Accelerate YoY

We reiterate our Outperform call on ADVANC, supported by an attractive fundamental valuation with around 15% upside to our revised fair value and...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 22, 2025

The market lacked new catalysts, while blue-chip stocks took turns leading the index. At least the index attempted to rebound and consistently held...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 22, 2025

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy interest rate by 0.25% to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, and signaled further rate hikes in 2026,...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 19th): Intouch, Bangchak, Ngern Tid Lor, CP Foods

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Intouch (INTUCH TB), Bangchak (BCP TB), Ngern Tid...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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