Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We remain cautious as the number of bearish-leaning developments continue to pile up. As a result we continue to believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown. We recap important technical levels across markets and highlight Actionable Themes within Services, Consumer Staples, and Health Care. We also highlight attractive set ups in H&amp;M Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB Class B (HM.B-SE).

We remain cautious as the number of bearish-leaning developments continue to pile up. As a result we continue to believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown. We recap important technical levels across markets and highlight Actionable Themes within Services, Consumer Staples, and Health Care. We also highlight attractive set ups in H&amp;M Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB Class B (HM.B-SE).

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish-Leaning Developments Continue; Europe/UK Holding Above Support.

Equity analyst UK & Europe, UK Long Short

Peter Toeman

Equity analyst UK & Europe

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given political turmoil and the existential risk posed by Brexit but it seems that investors always anticipated that Parliament would veto the most damaging "No-deal" option. In this regard investors have been more far-sighted than right-wing Conservative politicians.So where to now for FTSE100 ? The index is back to the level of early 18Q4 which seems appropriate given the anticipated economic downturn recession failed to materialise. The old adage "Sell in May and go away" comes to mind. As strategy this has worked quite well. Over the 25 years the market has been lower at the at the end of the second quarter than at the beginning 42%  of the time, producing an average return of minus 0.4%.In terms of individual companies, Tesco (which we had in the long portfolio) is amongst the top ten performers year-to-date, and Centrica (in the short portfolio) is the second worst.

The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given political turmoil and the existential risk posed by Brexit but it seems that investors always anticipated that Parliament would veto the most damaging "No-deal" option. In this regard investors have been more far-sighted than right-wing Conservative politicians.So where to now for FTSE100 ? The index is back to the level of early 18Q4 which seems appropriate given the anticipated economic downturn recession failed to materialise. The old adage "Sell in May and go away" comes to mind. As strategy this has worked quite well. Over the 25 years the market has been lower at the at the end of the second quarter than at the beginning 42%  of the time, producing an average return of minus 0.4%.In terms of individual companies, Tesco (which we had in the long portfolio) is amongst the top ten performers year-to-date, and Centrica (in the short portfolio) is the second worst.

With just two weeks left before the UK is set to leave the EU, the shape of the arrangements with country's largest trading partners is still to be decided. Imminent political developments will determine whether Brexit is hard, soft, deferred, or aborted.
The UK's principal share index the FTSE 100 is virtually unchanged since we established our Long/Short portfolio a month ago. Results from Lloyds and Centrica have lead to useful outperformance and underperformance respectively. The M&amp;S joint venture with Ocado is judged by investors to have added a lot more value to the latter than the former. We have been wrong-footed by Melrose Industries, but heck, there is always one.
Remembering that no one ever got poor from taking  profits,  we have closed out our long position in Lloyds Banking.  
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<div class="content-caption">S&amp;P Capital IQ</div>
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With just two weeks left before the UK is set to leave the EU, the shape of the arrangements with country's largest trading partners is still to be decided. Imminent political developments will determine whether Brexit is hard, soft, deferred, or aborted.
The UK's principal share index the FTSE 100 is virtually unchanged since we established our Long/Short portfolio a month ago. Results from Lloyds and Centrica have lead to useful outperformance and underperformance respectively. The M&amp;S joint venture with Ocado is judged by investors to have added a lot more value to the latter than the former. We have been wrong-footed by Melrose Industries, but heck, there is always one.
Remembering that no one ever got poor from taking  profits,  we have closed out our long position in Lloyds Banking.  


S&amp;P Capital IQ


The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium
 In contrast with the lackluster performance of the stockmarket, nominal GDP of the UK economy almost doubled over the period
Relative to the domestic economy FTSE 100 looks marginally undervalued which may explain the rebound seen in the first month of this year
On the other hand, courtesy of the political decision to leave the European Union, the outlook has never been more uncertain
Major structural change involving tearing up a 40 year arrangement with the UK's largest trading partner is bound to have significant and unpredictable consequences 
We offer a long/short portfolio of UK stocks designed to exploit emerging themes

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium
 In contrast with the lackluster performance of the stockmarket, nominal GDP of the UK economy almost doubled over the period
Relative to the domestic economy FTSE 100 looks marginally undervalued which may explain the rebound seen in the first month of this year
On the other hand, courtesy of the political decision to leave the European Union, the outlook has never been more uncertain
Major structural change involving tearing up a 40 year arrangement with the UK's largest trading partner is bound to have significant and unpredictable consequences 
We offer a long/short portfolio of UK stocks designed to exploit emerging themes 

FTSE 100: Twenty Years of Going Nowhere (Almost)

Diversified Industries

Avi Dalfen

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Highlights of significant recent happenings include:
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<ol>
<li>
Feeding the Dragon - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5380" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5380:1">Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP)</a> buying into massive Chile copper project; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20799" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2332" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2332:1">Tokyo Gas (9531 JP)</a> announced plans to be long-term buyers of Mexican LNG.</li>
<li> Local News on Global Companies – <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8231" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8231:1">Huawei Technology (40978Z CH)</a>'s to do "whatever is required" to meet Canada's 5G security standards; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24240" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1">Ant Financial (1051260D CH)</a>’s Sesame Credit be used to apply for Canadian visas;  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/665" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> offered data to  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20451" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20451:1">Netflix Inc (NFLX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/586" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:586:1">Royal Bank Of Canada (RY CN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25472" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25472:1">BlackBerry Ltd (BB CN)</a>'s high-security reputation increasingly valuable; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14577" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14577:1">Fedex Corp (FDX US)</a> and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19984" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19984:1">United Parcel Service Cl B (UPS US)</a> deny negative impact from  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/409" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>'s Amazon Air operations; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/864" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:864:1">Anheuser Busch Inbev Sa (Adr) (BUD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27402" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27402:1">Tilray Inc (TLRY US)</a> are doing "joint" product development.</li>
<li>
Trade Deals &amp; No Deals – <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6537" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6537:1">Bosideng Intl Hldgs (3998 HK)</a> got an unexpected boost, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25616" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25616:1">Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS CN)</a> took an unexpected hit as a consequence of the U.S.A. Government's problems with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8231" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8231:1">Huawei Technology (40978Z CH)</a> . </li>
<li>
Outliers - Another "silver lining" to global warming?  The Warming Arctic Opens the Northwest Passage as a Potential Maritime Superhighway</li>
</ol>
</div>

Highlights of significant recent happenings include:



Feeding the Dragon - Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) buying into massive Chile copper project; Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) and Tokyo Gas (9531 JP) announced plans to be long-term buyers of Mexican LNG.
 Local News on Global Companies – Huawei Technology (40978Z CH)'s to do "whatever is required" to meet Canada's 5G security standards; Ant Financial (1051260D CH)’s Sesame Credit be used to apply for Canadian visas;  Facebook Inc A (FB US) offered data to  Netflix Inc (NFLX US) and Royal Bank Of Canada (RY CN); BlackBerry Ltd (BB CN)'s high-security reputation increasingly valuable; Fedex Corp (FDX US) and  United Parcel Service Cl B (UPS US) deny negative impact from  Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)'s Amazon Air operations; and Anheuser Busch Inbev Sa (Adr) (BUD US) and Tilray Inc (TLRY US) are doing "joint" product development.

Trade Deals &amp; No Deals – Bosideng Intl Hldgs (3998 HK) got an unexpected boost, while Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS CN) took an unexpected hit as a consequence of the U.S.A. Government's problems with Huawei Technology (40978Z CH) . 

Outliers - Another "silver lining" to global warming?  The Warming Arctic Opens the Northwest Passage as a Potential Maritime Superhighway



Business Happenings in the Americas that May Be “Below the Radar” - Week Ending December 22, 2018

United Kingdom

Diageo is a British multinational alcoholic beverage company that produces, markets, and distributes spirits, beer, and wine. Its extensive portfolio includes well-known brands such as Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, Tanqueray, Baileys, Captain Morgan, Don Julio, and Casamigos. The company is headquartered in London, England, and was formed in 1997.

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Diageo (DGE LN)

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish-Leaning Developments Continue; Europe/UK Holding Above Support.

We remain cautious as the number of bearish-leaning developments continue to pile up. As a result we continue to believe global equities are...

Vermilion Research

FTSE 100 Long/Short: No 2 No Deal

The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given...

Boost Research

FTSE 100 Long/Short: Beginner's Luck

With just two weeks left before the UK is set to leave the EU, the shape of the arrangements with country's largest trading partners is still to be...

Boost Research

FTSE 100: Twenty Years of Going Nowhere (Almost)

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium In contrast with the lackluster...

Boost Research

Business Happenings in the Americas that May Be “Below the Radar” - Week Ending December 22, 2018

Highlights of significant recent happenings include: Feeding the Dragon - Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) buying into massive Chile copper...

Avi Dalfen

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