Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Fed has reiterated its tightening path, despite pleas from EM central bankers and warnings from Ben Bernanke that the US economy is heading ‘over a cliff’ in 2020.</li>
<li>The ECB’s new forecasts are tilting toward stagflation and a single rate hike in H2 next year - nonetheless, the end of asset purchases added to Fed QT further tightens global liquidity.</li>
<li>A rising political risk premium and scramble for offshore USD funding is hitting LatAm hardest so far, with local equities lagging Asia by 14ppts…</li>
</ul>


The Fed has reiterated its tightening path, despite pleas from EM central bankers and warnings from Ben Bernanke that the US economy is heading ‘over a cliff’ in 2020.
The ECB’s new forecasts are tilting toward stagflation and a single rate hike in H2 next year - nonetheless, the end of asset purchases added to Fed QT further tightens global liquidity.
A rising political risk premium and scramble for offshore USD funding is hitting LatAm hardest so far, with local equities lagging Asia by 14ppts…


Fed Ignores EM Pain, as Dollar Rally Accelerates…

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have been covered in recent notes.</li>
<li>The deep junk issue last week from WeWork with its ‘community adjusted EBITDA’ metric as well as the lending scandal in Australia engulfing AMP are classic late credit cycle warning signals.</li>
<li>Real housing prices in Scandinavia and Australia/Canada as well as HK are dangerously above long-term trend and vulnerable to a global…</li>
</ul>


A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have been covered in recent notes.
The deep junk issue last week from WeWork with its ‘community adjusted EBITDA’ metric as well as the lending scandal in Australia engulfing AMP are classic late credit cycle warning signals.
Real housing prices in Scandinavia and Australia/Canada as well as HK are dangerously above long-term trend and vulnerable to a global…


Beware Deep Junk and Liar Loans, as Netflix Reinvents Media Sector…

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

<ul><li>Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networks</li><li>We have increased the weighting of this theme as an earnings driver for the TV broadcasting sector from 5% four years ago to 45% today.</li><li>Expect profit warnings from Disney related to its TV networks business</li><li>Sell Disney shares</li><li>Underweight the global TV broadcasting sector</li></ul>

Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networksWe have increased the weighting of this theme as an earnings driver for the TV broadcasting sector from 5% four years ago to 45% today.Expect profit warnings from Disney related to its TV networks businessSell Disney sharesUnderweight the global TV broadcasting sector

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

In this review, we look at the evolution of digital music and online piracy, borrowing from our own everyday experience in Thailand (reckoned as the world's top three piracy markets) and the Steven Witt's book How Music Got Free. As free-lancers develop the mp3 platform and made CDs obsolete through peer-to-peer sharing, some pioneers like Napsters became casualty, while others, such as Spotify and Pandora, come into fortune. Those who stick with the old format and try to protect their turf, eg Grammy, have found the task virtually impossible. Yet, others in Thailand, such as Onpa and RS, have evolved into entirely line of business (cosmetics), taking a page of the reinvention thesis we first introduced in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/turnarounds-finding-a-phoenix-in-the-land-of-the-dead" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8194">Turnarounds: Finding A Phoenix In the Land of the Dead</a>.WARNING: This is probably our longest review ever.

In this review, we look at the evolution of digital music and online piracy, borrowing from our own everyday experience in Thailand (reckoned as the world's top three piracy markets) and the Steven Witt's book How Music Got Free. As free-lancers develop the mp3 platform and made CDs obsolete through peer-to-peer sharing, some pioneers like Napsters became casualty, while others, such as Spotify and Pandora, come into fortune. Those who stick with the old format and try to protect their turf, eg Grammy, have found the task virtually impossible. Yet, others in Thailand, such as Onpa and RS, have evolved into entirely line of business (cosmetics), taking a page of the reinvention thesis we first introduced in Turnarounds: Finding A Phoenix In the Land of the Dead.WARNING: This is probably our longest review ever.

Silicon Stories E: The Sound of Digital Music

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Pop-up shop format works well in the licensing industry. They can act as billboards for the franchise, enabling licensors to communicate the brand story directly with consumers. Recently, increasing number of business have been experimenting with the model by opening outlets at cinemas and live shows using it to communicate their lifestyle license image with fans. There has even been an example of a rather unusual permanent pop-up shop launch thanks to a new collaboration with the world’s largest licensor and an electronics retailer, as unlikely as that may sound to many.

Pop-up shop format works well in the licensing industry. They can act as billboards for the franchise, enabling licensors to communicate the brand story directly with consumers. Recently, increasing number of business have been experimenting with the model by opening outlets at cinemas and live shows using it to communicate their lifestyle license image with fans. There has even been an example of a rather unusual permanent pop-up shop launch thanks to a new collaboration with the world’s largest licensor and an electronics retailer, as unlikely as that may sound to many.

Licensors and Retailers Increasingly Experiment with the "Pop-Up" Store Model in Licensing

United States

Time Warner Inc. is a media and entertainment company. The Company's businesses include cable television networks that provide programming, feature films, television and home video production and distribution, and magazine publishing.

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Time Warner Inc (TWX US)

Fed Ignores EM Pain, as Dollar Rally Accelerates…

The Fed has reiterated its tightening path, despite pleas from EM central bankers and warnings from Ben Bernanke that the US economy is heading...

Sean Maher

Beware Deep Junk and Liar Loans, as Netflix Reinvents Media Sector…

A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have...

Sean Maher

Sell Disney; Underweight TV Broadcasters

Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networks We have increased the weighting of this...

CM Research

Silicon Stories E: The Sound of Digital Music

In this review, we look at the evolution of digital music and online piracy, borrowing from our own everyday experience in Thailand (reckoned as...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Licensors and Retailers Increasingly Experiment with the "Pop-Up" Store Model in Licensing

Pop-up shop format works well in the licensing industry. They can act as billboards for the franchise, enabling licensors to communicate the brand...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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