Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.</li>
<li>Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.</li>
</ul>


Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.
Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.
We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.


First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

<ul>
<li>Both TSMC and UMC saw about 20% cut in automotive industry wafer sales in 3Q23, which was 20% worse than customers' guidance.</li>
<li>Reasons for discrepancies: 1. IDMs cut foundry orders but keep in house utilization higher; 2. Worse than expected US auto factories strike; 3. Rate hike results in worse car sales.</li>
<li>We suggest clients to be cautious on the investment of automotive supply chain for the next 3-6 months</li>
</ul>


Both TSMC and UMC saw about 20% cut in automotive industry wafer sales in 3Q23, which was 20% worse than customers' guidance.
Reasons for discrepancies: 1. IDMs cut foundry orders but keep in house utilization higher; 2. Worse than expected US auto factories strike; 3. Rate hike results in worse car sales.
We suggest clients to be cautious on the investment of automotive supply chain for the next 3-6 months


Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenues are hitting the bottom in 1Q25, most firms mention sequential growth in 2Q, sometimes YoY growth. Trends depend on specific firms, mentions of both Auto and Industrial recovering.</li>
<li>Gross / operating profit recovery could take a bit longer as inventory and price concessions could negate revenue growth for a couple of quarters.</li>
<li>2 categories of stocks: the cheap ones (NXP, Onsemi, Renesas, STMicro) and the expensive stocks (Analog Devices, Infineon, Microchip, Texas Instruments). I’d go with Renesas and Texas Instruments.</li>
</ul>


Revenues are hitting the bottom in 1Q25, most firms mention sequential growth in 2Q, sometimes YoY growth. Trends depend on specific firms, mentions of both Auto and Industrial recovering.
Gross / operating profit recovery could take a bit longer as inventory and price concessions could negate revenue growth for a couple of quarters.
2 categories of stocks: the cheap ones (NXP, Onsemi, Renesas, STMicro) and the expensive stocks (Analog Devices, Infineon, Microchip, Texas Instruments). I’d go with Renesas and Texas Instruments.


Automotive & Industrial Semiconductors Part 2: Is It the Bottom, Finally? Time to Buy?

Infineon Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Very large miss. Sept-24 (4Q FY24) EPS -30% below Consensus.  Dec-24 (1Q FY25) revenue guidance -16% below Consensus, operating profit at least -20% below Consensus.</li>
<li>End-Demand is slow, large inventory destocking will continue into 1H FY25, followed by “no hockey stick recovery” in 2H FY25. “Current visibility is very low”. </li>
<li>For FY25 (starting in Dec-24 quarter), Consensus assumes +17% revenue growth YoY, management guided for a slight decline. Adding some margins compression, FY25 Consensus Net Income  is ~25-30% too high.   </li>
</ul>


Very large miss. Sept-24 (4Q FY24) EPS -30% below Consensus.  Dec-24 (1Q FY25) revenue guidance -16% below Consensus, operating profit at least -20% below Consensus.
End-Demand is slow, large inventory destocking will continue into 1H FY25, followed by “no hockey stick recovery” in 2H FY25. “Current visibility is very low”. 
For FY25 (starting in Dec-24 quarter), Consensus assumes +17% revenue growth YoY, management guided for a slight decline. Adding some margins compression, FY25 Consensus Net Income  is ~25-30% too high.   


Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC June Sales Surge Higher Than Expectations; Apple Will Be Use TSMC's 2nm Node for Next Year's iPhone 17</li>
<li>Wiwynn GDR Offering - US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong </li>
<li>Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity. </li>
</ul>


TSMC June Sales Surge Higher Than Expectations; Apple Will Be Use TSMC's 2nm Node for Next Year's iPhone 17
Wiwynn GDR Offering - US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong 
Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Beat High Expectations; Wiwynn GDR Offering; IPhone 17 to Use 2nm

Netherlands

NXP Semiconductors NV operates as a global semiconductor company. The Company designs semiconductors and software for mobile communications, consumer electronics, security applications, in-car entertainment, and networking.  NXP offers its products to the automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, mobile, and computing applications.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Top foundries see worse than expected automotive wafer sales, implying more automotive supply chain members are going to miss earnings expectation...

Andrew Lu

Automotive & Industrial Semiconductors Part 2: Is It the Bottom, Finally? Time to Buy?

1Q25 revenues hitting bottom, firms see QoQ growth in 2Q. Auto and Industrial show signs of improvement. Profit recovery may lag (inventory, price...

Nicolas Baratte

Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

On Consensus before earnings release, the stock trades at 12.5x FY25. After Consensus adjustment, the stock should be trading at ~16-17x FY25 EPS.

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Beat High Expectations; Wiwynn GDR Offering; IPhone 17 to Use 2nm

TSMC's strong June sales exceed expectations, Apple to use TSMC's 2nm node for iPhone 17 next year. Wiwynn's US$1.45bn dilutive offering shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Top foundries see worse than expected automotive wafer sales, implying more automotive supply chain members are going to miss earnings expectation...

Andrew Lu

Automotive & Industrial Semiconductors Part 2: Is It the Bottom, Finally? Time to Buy?

​1Q25 revenues hitting bottom, firms see QoQ growth in 2Q. Auto and Industrial show signs of improvement. Profit recovery may lag (inventory, price...

Nicolas Baratte

Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

On Consensus before earnings release, the stock trades at 12.5x FY25. After Consensus adjustment, the stock should be trading at ~16-17x FY25 EPS.

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Beat High Expectations; Wiwynn GDR Offering; IPhone 17 to Use 2nm

​TSMC's strong June sales exceed expectations, Apple to use TSMC's 2nm node for iPhone 17 next year. Wiwynn's US$1.45bn dilutive offering shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

1Q25 revenues hitting bottom, firms see QoQ growth in 2Q. Auto and Industrial show signs of improvement. Profit recovery may lag (inventory, price...

TSMC's strong June sales exceed expectations, Apple to use TSMC's 2nm node for iPhone 17 next year. Wiwynn's US$1.45bn dilutive offering shows...