Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

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Equity Capital Markets

YUM China SSS Could Disappoint in 2H16 -  Set to Pick Up In Early 2017<ul><li>Yum’s China Same Store Sales (SSS) are very sensitive to Chinese consumer demand. We have found that Employment Expectations from the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey offer a very good proxy for consumer demand.</li><li>When adjusting for the impact of food safety scares (which impacted sales from the 4Q12 to 2Q13 and then again from the 3Q14 to the 2Q15) we find that two inputs (Employment Expectations and regional differences in the CSI) explain 65% of the variation in Yum’s China SSS.</li><li>In the absence of another food safety scare Employment Expectations indicate that Yum’s China SSS can be expected to fluctuate around annual growth rates of 2% YoY through the 4Q16 before picking up to growth rates around 5% YoY in the 1Q17.</li><li>This is considerably below some estimates for the 2H16 and could disappoint the market as they are announced.</li></ul>

YUM China SSS Could Disappoint in 2H16 -  Set to Pick Up In Early 2017Yum’s China Same Store Sales (SSS) are very sensitive to Chinese consumer demand. We have found that Employment Expectations from the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey offer a very good proxy for consumer demand.When adjusting for the impact of food safety scares (which impacted sales from the 4Q12 to 2Q13 and then again from the 3Q14 to the 2Q15) we find that two inputs (Employment Expectations and regional differences in the CSI) explain 65% of the variation in Yum’s China SSS.In the absence of another food safety scare Employment Expectations indicate that Yum’s China SSS can be expected to fluctuate around annual growth rates of 2% YoY through the 4Q16 before picking up to growth rates around 5% YoY in the 1Q17.This is considerably below some estimates for the 2H16 and could disappoint the market as they are announced.

Outlook for YUM! Brands SSS in China Ahead of Corporate Split

Senior Investment Analyst, Black Crane Investment Mgmt Ltd

Perry Tan, CFA, CAIA, FRM

Senior Investment Analyst

Black Crane Investment Mgmt Ltd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>Jet.com was a $600m company last year before further fund raising.</div><div>It is now valued at $3.3bn after Wal-Mart's cash and stock acquisition announced earlier.</div><div>Jet.com charges a $49.99 per month annual fee to its customers and promises the lowest prices (they priced below Amazon and other competitors).</div><div>Their strategy backfired and suffered losses because they did not sign up with enough partner merchants and as a result, Jet.com employees had to sometimes buy from competing merchants at a loss, in…</div>

Jet.com was a $600m company last year before further fund raising.It is now valued at $3.3bn after Wal-Mart's cash and stock acquisition announced earlier.Jet.com charges a $49.99 per month annual fee to its customers and promises the lowest prices (they priced below Amazon and other competitors).Their strategy backfired and suffered losses because they did not sign up with enough partner merchants and as a result, Jet.com employees had to sometimes buy from competing merchants at a loss, in…

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Pokémon GO and the world of container shipping as we knew it<blockquote> “Dad, have you heard of Pokémon Go, can kids play it, when can I download it”, “Dad, for this birthday can you download for me the Lego Marvel's Avengers game”, “ Mom, can you please download this character for me”. </blockquote>That is my 9-year-old son asking for his reward after he has done his homework. A portion of his pocket money is now spent on the iTunes app store, that is the share lost by traditional retailers. He does love Lego and buys…

Pokémon GO and the world of container shipping as we knew it “Dad, have you heard of Pokémon Go, can kids play it, when can I download it”, “Dad, for this birthday can you download for me the Lego Marvel's Avengers game”, “ Mom, can you please download this character for me”. That is my 9-year-old son asking for his reward after he has done his homework. A portion of his pocket money is now spent on the iTunes app store, that is the share lost by traditional retailers. He does love Lego and buys…

DMER Shorts: Pokémon GO and the World of Container Shipping as We Knew It

Economic Data Out of US and China Do Not Address Key ConcernsThis week investors attention turned away from the risks a Brexit poses to the global economy as China’s foreign exchange reserves unexpectedly increased and the US Jobs report came in well above expectations.Due to the better than expected key data releases in the US and China global equity markets have surged to record highs. Economic Data Out of US and China Do Not Address Key ConcernsWhile data out of the US and China is encouraging the data does not address key issues and has not changed the near term outlook for the global economy.

Economic Data Out of US and China Do Not Address Key ConcernsThis week investors attention turned away from the risks a Brexit poses to the global economy as China’s foreign exchange reserves unexpectedly increased and the US Jobs report came in well above expectations.Due to the better than expected key data releases in the US and China global equity markets have surged to record highs. Economic Data Out of US and China Do Not Address Key ConcernsWhile data out of the US and China is encouraging the data does not address key issues and has not changed the near term outlook for the global economy.

RRG Call For This Week: US Jobs Report Distracts Investors From Real Concerns

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Non-farm payroll employment came in much higher than market expectations with 287,000 jobs being added in June 2016 compared to an average addition of 148,400 jobs in the first five months of 2016. Over the past 3 months (April-June 2016), job gains have averaged 147,000 per month. The payrolls number for May 2016 was revised down from 38,000 to 11,000 and the number for April 2016 was revised up from 123,000 to 144,000.The unemployment rate increased to 4.9% in June 2016, up from 4.7% in May…

Non-farm payroll employment came in much higher than market expectations with 287,000 jobs being added in June 2016 compared to an average addition of 148,400 jobs in the first five months of 2016. Over the past 3 months (April-June 2016), job gains have averaged 147,000 per month. The payrolls number for May 2016 was revised down from 38,000 to 11,000 and the number for April 2016 was revised up from 123,000 to 144,000.The unemployment rate increased to 4.9% in June 2016, up from 4.7% in May…

US: Non-Farm Payrolls Surge, Beating Market Expectations

United States

Yum! Brands, Inc, owns and franchises quick-service restaurants worldwide.  The Company develops, operates, franchises and licenses a worldwide system of restaurants which prepare, package and sell a menu of food items.

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Yum! Brands Inc (YUM US)

Outlook for YUM! Brands SSS in China Ahead of Corporate Split

YUM China SSS Could Disappoint in 2H16 - Set to Pick Up In Early 2017 Yum’s China Same Store Sales (SSS) are very sensitive to Chinese consumer...

David Riedel

Wal-Mart's Acquisition of Jet.com

Jet.com was a $600m company last year before further fund raising.It is now valued at $3.3bn after Wal-Mart's cash and stock acquisition announced...

Perry Tan, CFA, CAIA, FRM

DMER Shorts: Pokémon GO and the World of Container Shipping as We Knew It

Pokémon GO and the world of container shipping as we knew it “Dad, have you heard of Pokémon Go, can kids play it, when can I download it”, “Dad,...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

RRG Call For This Week: US Jobs Report Distracts Investors From Real Concerns

Economic Data Out of US and China Do Not Address Key ConcernsThis week investors attention turned away from the risks a Brexit poses to the global...

David Riedel

US: Non-Farm Payrolls Surge, Beating Market Expectations

Non-farm payroll employment came in much higher than market expectations with 287,000 jobs being added in June 2016 compared to an average addition...

Rajan Govil

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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