HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auntea-jenny-shanghai-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40891:1" rel="noopener">Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)</a>'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. </li>
<li>At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a>, but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. </li>
<li>Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.</li>
</ul>



Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. 
At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Guming Holdings (1364 HK), but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. 
Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.


Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's tea sector has attracted increased interest, but the share prices are volatile. Overall valuations do not look cheap, and the key is stock picking.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auntea-jenny-shanghai-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40891:1" rel="noopener">Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)</a> nd <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> are expensive on both PEG and P/B vs. ROE perspectives.</li>
<li>In two years, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)</a> will turn even cheaper.</li>
</ul>


China's tea sector has attracted increased interest, but the share prices are volatile. Overall valuations do not look cheap, and the key is stock picking.

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK) nd Mixue Group (2097 HK) are expensive on both PEG and P/B vs. ROE perspectives.
In two years, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK), Chagee Holdings (CHA US), and Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) will turn even cheaper.


Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>1347 HK/ACMR US: Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II begins tool move-in (+/+)</li>
<li>1810 HK/BIDU US/0175 HK: “Xiaomi criticized for selling cars at a loss” goes viral (+/-/-)</li>
<li>2150 HK:Nayuki's First Overseas Flagship Store Opens in Thailand (+)</li>
</ul>


1347 HK/ACMR US: Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II begins tool move-in (+/+)
1810 HK/BIDU US/0175 HK: “Xiaomi criticized for selling cars at a loss” goes viral (+/-/-)
2150 HK:Nayuki's First Overseas Flagship Store Opens in Thailand (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1347HK/ACMR/1810HK/BIDU/175HK/1211HK/NIO/XPEV/TSLA/LI/2150HK/1519HK/ZTO/1810HK

<ul>
<li>1211 HK: BYD and Uber reach agreement to launch 100,000 vehicles globally (/)</li>
<li>AAPL US: Huawei double-hinge folding device has begun production (-)</li>
<li>Macro News Update: The State Council Releases the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of Service Consumption," Primarily Focusing on Supply-Side Improvement.(+)</li>
</ul>


1211 HK: BYD and Uber reach agreement to launch 100,000 vehicles globally (/)
AAPL US: Huawei double-hinge folding device has begun production (-)
Macro News Update: The State Council Releases the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of Service Consumption," Primarily Focusing on Supply-Side Improvement.(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/AAPL US/2150 HK/Macro News Update/Consumer Industry Update

<ul>
<li>1211 HK/LI US /1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US: In the 26th week of 2024 (6/24-6/30), new energy vehicles strengthened across the board, mainly due to consumption subsidies（/////////）</li>
<li>MNSO US: Indonesia Plans to Impose 100%-200% Tariffs on Chinese Imports (-)</li>
<li>Macro News Update: Expectations Rise for Consumption Tax Reform (+)</li>
</ul>


1211 HK/LI US /1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US: In the 26th week of 2024 (6/24-6/30), new energy vehicles strengthened across the board, mainly due to consumption subsidies（/////////）
MNSO US: Indonesia Plans to Impose 100%-200% Tariffs on Chinese Imports (-)
Macro News Update: Expectations Rise for Consumption Tax Reform (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US /1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/MNSO US/981 HK/BEKE US/2150 HK

China

Naisnow, formerly Nayuki Holdings Ltd., is an investment holding company that operates a chain of teahouses in the People's Republic of China. It sells freshly made tea drinks, baked goods, and other products under its flagship brand Nayuki and sub-brand Tai Gai. The company also provides store operations management, supply chain management, and franchise operations. Nayuki Holdings Limited was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

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Naisnow (2150 HK)

Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tea Sector: What to Buy and Sell?

China's tea sector is attracting interest, but stock picking is key. Auntea Jenny and Mixue Group are expensive, while Chabaidao, Chagee, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1347HK/ACMR/1810HK/BIDU/175HK/1211HK/NIO/XPEV/TSLA/LI/2150HK/1519HK/ZTO/1810HK

Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II starts tool move-in, Xiaomi faces backlash for selling cars at a loss, Nayuki opens first overseas store in Thailand.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/AAPL US/2150 HK/Macro News Update/Consumer Industry Update

BYD and Uber partner to deploy 100,000 vehicles worldwide, Huawei starts production on double-hinge folding device, China's State Council...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US /1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/MNSO US/981 HK/BEKE US/2150 HK

New energy vehicles see growth in 26th week of 2024 due to consumption subsidies; Indonesia plans high tariffs on Chinese imports; expectations...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

​Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tea Sector: What to Buy and Sell?

​China's tea sector is attracting interest, but stock picking is key. Auntea Jenny and Mixue Group are expensive, while Chabaidao, Chagee, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1347HK/ACMR/1810HK/BIDU/175HK/1211HK/NIO/XPEV/TSLA/LI/2150HK/1519HK/ZTO/1810HK

​Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II starts tool move-in, Xiaomi faces backlash for selling cars at a loss, Nayuki opens first overseas store in Thailand.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/AAPL US/2150 HK/Macro News Update/Consumer Industry Update

​BYD and Uber partner to deploy 100,000 vehicles worldwide, Huawei starts production on double-hinge folding device, China's State Council...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US /1810 HK/NIO US/XPEV US/MNSO US/981 HK/BEKE US/2150 HK

​New energy vehicles see growth in 26th week of 2024 due to consumption subsidies; Indonesia plans high tariffs on Chinese imports; expectations...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

China's tea sector is attracting interest, but stock picking is key. Auntea Jenny and Mixue Group are expensive, while Chabaidao, Chagee, and...

Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II starts tool move-in, Xiaomi faces backlash for selling cars at a loss, Nayuki opens first overseas store in Thailand.

BYD and Uber partner to deploy 100,000 vehicles worldwide, Huawei starts production on double-hinge folding device, China's State Council...

New energy vehicles see growth in 26th week of 2024 due to consumption subsidies; Indonesia plans high tariffs on Chinese imports; expectations...