Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

CENTEL could bid for KFC Franchises in Thailand, as Yum! Brands appears on the verge of selling some 244 stores it operates directly in the Kingdom. Currently, there are 586 stores in total, and CENTEL, the second largest restaurant operator in Thailand after MINT, already runs 212 of them. KFC is the biggest brand under CENTEL's umbrella in terms of both number of stores and revenues (other portfolio brands include Mister Donuts, Ootoya, Auntie Anne, and Pepper Lunch), so they are definitely…

CENTEL could bid for KFC Franchises in Thailand, as Yum! Brands appears on the verge of selling some 244 stores it operates directly in the Kingdom. Currently, there are 586 stores in total, and CENTEL, the second largest restaurant operator in Thailand after MINT, already runs 212 of them. KFC is the biggest brand under CENTEL's umbrella in terms of both number of stores and revenues (other portfolio brands include Mister Donuts, Ootoya, Auntie Anne, and Pepper Lunch), so they are definitely…

Snippets#6: CENTEL's KFC Bid, Trump's Flabby Dollar$

Coup'la years ago, the Goldman Sachs, the mightiest firm on Wall Street which already had a stake in Four Seasons, tried to buy the Regent in Thailand, but was defeated Bill Heinecke, but how did he do it? Heinecke is no master strategist like Sun Tzu. He's more like a Thai-American Richard Branson. Came down with Mama and decided to stay long term, and the rest is history. The former AMCHAM (American Chamber of Commerce) Chairman and first farang to hit our list, Heinecke loves go-karting, and his conglomerate seems messy and more Thai than you'd expect for a focussed American business.Today, he runs MINT (Minor International), Thailand's biggest hotel and restaurant chain. If you've eaten at Burger King, Sizzler, or the Pizza in Bangkok, you've just made him a little richer. His book The Enterprenuer is a bestseller; his eccentric story is legend. His scuffle with Goldman...hmm they rather keep that under the rug haha...so enjoy, folks! Oh he told me you guys should drink some Dairy Queen Moolata while you're at it; he sells those too Haha.

Coup'la years ago, the Goldman Sachs, the mightiest firm on Wall Street which already had a stake in Four Seasons, tried to buy the Regent in Thailand, but was defeated Bill Heinecke, but how did he do it? Heinecke is no master strategist like Sun Tzu. He's more like a Thai-American Richard Branson. Came down with Mama and decided to stay long term, and the rest is history. The former AMCHAM (American Chamber of Commerce) Chairman and first farang to hit our list, Heinecke loves go-karting, and his conglomerate seems messy and more Thai than you'd expect for a focussed American business.Today, he runs MINT (Minor International), Thailand's biggest hotel and restaurant chain. If you've eaten at Burger King, Sizzler, or the Pizza in Bangkok, you've just made him a little richer. His book The Enterprenuer is a bestseller; his eccentric story is legend. His scuffle with Goldman...hmm they rather keep that under the rug haha...so enjoy, folks! Oh he told me you guys should drink some Dairy Queen Moolata while you're at it; he sells those too Haha.

Amareos

Federico Bagiotti, CFA

Walt Disney (DIS.N) remains one of the least liked stocks we track but crowd negativity is abating. <img src="https://i2.wp.com/amareos.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/FN-160822-DIS-T.png?resize=624%2C100&amp;ssl=1" width="624" height="100" class="editor-image img-responsive">Sentiment and Optimism<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/012/153/original/FN%20160822%20DIS%20S%2BO%20SK.png?1472013800" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="12153"></figure>Walt Disney’s stock price has been on a gradual downtrend since last summer, a significant underperformance compared with the broader US equity indices which have just hit record highs.This relative weakness is especially surprising (according to Yahoo Finance, roughly half of analysts covering the stock have it as a BUY recommendation), because it has occurred despite good…

Walt Disney (DIS.N) remains one of the least liked stocks we track but crowd negativity is abating. Sentiment and OptimismWalt Disney’s stock price has been on a gradual downtrend since last summer, a significant underperformance compared with the broader US equity indices which have just hit record highs.This relative weakness is especially surprising (according to Yahoo Finance, roughly half of analysts covering the stock have it as a BUY recommendation), because it has occurred despite good…

Disney: Bottom Fishing - Sentiment After "Finding Dory"

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David Riedel

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YUM China SSS Could Disappoint in 2H16 -  Set to Pick Up In Early 2017<ul><li>Yum’s China Same Store Sales (SSS) are very sensitive to Chinese consumer demand. We have found that Employment Expectations from the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey offer a very good proxy for consumer demand.</li><li>When adjusting for the impact of food safety scares (which impacted sales from the 4Q12 to 2Q13 and then again from the 3Q14 to the 2Q15) we find that two inputs (Employment Expectations and regional differences in the CSI) explain 65% of the variation in Yum’s China SSS.</li><li>In the absence of another food safety scare Employment Expectations indicate that Yum’s China SSS can be expected to fluctuate around annual growth rates of 2% YoY through the 4Q16 before picking up to growth rates around 5% YoY in the 1Q17.</li><li>This is considerably below some estimates for the 2H16 and could disappoint the market as they are announced.</li></ul>

YUM China SSS Could Disappoint in 2H16 -  Set to Pick Up In Early 2017Yum’s China Same Store Sales (SSS) are very sensitive to Chinese consumer demand. We have found that Employment Expectations from the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey offer a very good proxy for consumer demand.When adjusting for the impact of food safety scares (which impacted sales from the 4Q12 to 2Q13 and then again from the 3Q14 to the 2Q15) we find that two inputs (Employment Expectations and regional differences in the CSI) explain 65% of the variation in Yum’s China SSS.In the absence of another food safety scare Employment Expectations indicate that Yum’s China SSS can be expected to fluctuate around annual growth rates of 2% YoY through the 4Q16 before picking up to growth rates around 5% YoY in the 1Q17.This is considerably below some estimates for the 2H16 and could disappoint the market as they are announced.

Outlook for YUM! Brands SSS in China Ahead of Corporate Split

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

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<ul><li class="p1">Although rivalry among quick-service restaurants is on the rise&nbsp;worldwide, we believe Yum Brands offers one of the more&nbsp;compelling global growth stories in our consumer coverage&nbsp;universe.</li><li class="p1">Although Yum China's recovery has been slower than expected&nbsp;because of a softening macro picture, an evolving competitive set,&nbsp;and executional missteps, we still remain optimistic about Yum&nbsp;China's longer-term opportunities given a fragmented restaurant&nbsp;industry, a growing China middle class, ongoing urbanization&nbsp;trends, and the market becoming conducive to franchising.</li><li class="p1">With roughly 40% of Yum's operating income coming from China,&nbsp;the stock is tied to market perceptions of macro and consumer&nbsp;trends in the region. &nbsp;However, we view Yum as more than a China&nbsp;story and encourage investors to evaluate its other divisions.</li></ul>Analyst: R.J. HottovyFull report below the fold...

Although rivalry among quick-service restaurants is on the rise&nbsp;worldwide, we believe Yum Brands offers one of the more&nbsp;compelling global growth stories in our consumer coverage&nbsp;universe.Although Yum China's recovery has been slower than expected&nbsp;because of a softening macro picture, an evolving competitive set,&nbsp;and executional missteps, we still remain optimistic about Yum&nbsp;China's longer-term opportunities given a fragmented restaurant&nbsp;industry, a growing China middle class, ongoing urbanization&nbsp;trends, and the market becoming conducive to franchising.With roughly 40% of Yum's operating income coming from China,&nbsp;the stock is tied to market perceptions of macro and consumer&nbsp;trends in the region. &nbsp;However, we view Yum as more than a China&nbsp;story and encourage investors to evaluate its other divisions.Analyst: R.J. HottovyFull report below the fold...

China concerns legitimate, but Yum still offers a compelling long-term global cash flow story.

United States

Yum! Brands, Inc, owns and franchises quick-service restaurants worldwide.  The Company develops, operates, franchises and licenses a worldwide system of restaurants which prepare, package and sell a menu of food items.

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Yum! Brands Inc (YUM US)

Snippets#6: CENTEL's KFC Bid, Trump's Flabby Dollar$

CENTEL could bid for KFC Franchises in Thailand, as Yum! Brands appears on the verge of selling some 244 stores it operates directly in the...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thai-Coons Ep. 9: Beating Goldman Sachs

Coup'la years ago, the Goldman Sachs, the mightiest firm on Wall Street which already had a stake in Four Seasons, tried to buy the Regent in...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Disney: Bottom Fishing - Sentiment After "Finding Dory"

Walt Disney (DIS.N) remains one of the least liked stocks we track but crowd negativity is abating. Sentiment and OptimismWalt Disney’s stock price...

Amareos

Outlook for YUM! Brands SSS in China Ahead of Corporate Split

YUM China SSS Could Disappoint in 2H16 - Set to Pick Up In Early 2017 Yum’s China Same Store Sales (SSS) are very sensitive to Chinese consumer...

David Riedel

China concerns legitimate, but Yum still offers a compelling long-term global cash flow story.

Although rivalry among quick-service restaurants is on the rise worldwide, we believe Yum Brands offers one of the more compelling global growth...

Morningstar, Inc.

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