Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Yesterday's holdouts Screen +4.2% and TEL +3.2% likely next in line as AI derate spreads.</li>
<li>Softbank -8.3% yesterday as talks to raise $6bn margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake reportedly stall.</li>
<li>MLCC names Taiyo Yuden and Murata finally give up the ghost and likely to continue lower with the unlimited upside spell shattered.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday's holdouts Screen +4.2% and TEL +3.2% likely next in line as AI derate spreads.
Softbank -8.3% yesterday as talks to raise $6bn margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake reportedly stall.
MLCC names Taiyo Yuden and Murata finally give up the ghost and likely to continue lower with the unlimited upside spell shattered.


Japan Morning Connection: AI Derate Continues and Recent Intel Winners Face Capitulation

<ul>
<li>Kioxia +650% YTD, and the most crowded name on the TSE, likely to face sharp selling at the open.</li>
<li>Optical fiber names Furukawa, SEI and Fujikura all in the firing line along with MLCC plays Taiyo Yuden, Murata and TDK.</li>
<li>Expect a sharp rotation back to domestic defensives and the software plays.</li>
</ul>


Kioxia +650% YTD, and the most crowded name on the TSE, likely to face sharp selling at the open.
Optical fiber names Furukawa, SEI and Fujikura all in the firing line along with MLCC plays Taiyo Yuden, Murata and TDK.
Expect a sharp rotation back to domestic defensives and the software plays.


Japan Morning Connection: AI Rally Faces a Correction After SOX Has Biggest Drop in 6 Years

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Japan’s economy remained resilient, supported by easing inflation, stronger industrial activity and improving consumer sentiment </li>
<li>Equities reached fresh record highs as easing Middle East tensions and sustained AI-driven demand boosted confidence</li>
<li>Investor focus shifted towards AI infrastructure components, with MLCC, wafer and substrate suppliers leading gains</li>
</ul>


Japan’s economy remained resilient, supported by easing inflation, stronger industrial activity and improving consumer sentiment 
Equities reached fresh record highs as easing Middle East tensions and sustained AI-driven demand boosted confidence
Investor focus shifted towards AI infrastructure components, with MLCC, wafer and substrate suppliers leading gains


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD30,228m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Fujikura, Lasertec, Simplex, Furukawa Electric, Tokyo Electron, Nagoya Railroad, Taiyo Yuden, Toyota Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD30,228m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Fujikura, Lasertec, Simplex, Furukawa Electric, Tokyo Electron, Nagoya Railroad, Taiyo Yuden, Toyota Motor.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 2nd): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Fujikura, Lasertec

<ul>
<li>Kioxia set for a big open after a brief -4.6% correction yesterday with comment from UBS turning memory sentiment decisively bullish.</li>
<li>Xiaomi’s numbers yesterday should be a shot across the bow for smartphone related names. MLCC makers Taiyo Yuden, Murata and TDK looking increasingly stretched with big exposure to the market.</li>
<li>Software rotation bid evaporates as AI surges. Expect an underperformance today.</li>
</ul>


Kioxia set for a big open after a brief -4.6% correction yesterday with comment from UBS turning memory sentiment decisively bullish.
Xiaomi’s numbers yesterday should be a shot across the bow for smartphone related names. MLCC makers Taiyo Yuden, Murata and TDK looking increasingly stretched with big exposure to the market.
Software rotation bid evaporates as AI surges. Expect an underperformance today.


Japan Morning Connection: Kioxia Set for a Big Open as Memory Surges to New Records

Japan

Taiyo Yuden Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets electronic components such as, ceramic capacitors, inductors, hybrid integrated circuits (IC), and ferrite. The Company's products include power supplies, inverters, optical disks, filters, coils, and thermistors.

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Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: AI Derate Continues and Recent Intel Winners Face Capitulation

Another risk-off day for tech and AI as the market grapples with the deteriorating situation in Iran as well as uncertainty over what the SpaceX...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: AI Rally Faces a Correction After SOX Has Biggest Drop in 6 Years

SOX worst day in 6 years leaves Japan's AI names facing a tough open. Expect a sharp rotation back to domestic defensives and the software plays.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly: AI Rotation

Cooling geopolitical tensions, resilient domestic data and surging AI infrastructure demand propelled Japanese equities to fresh highs this week.

Mark Chadwick

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 2nd): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Fujikura, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Fujikura...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Morning Connection: Kioxia Set for a Big Open as Memory Surges to New Records

Memory sentiment bullish after UBS comment, setting up a big open for Kioxia after a brief -4.6% correction yesterday. Semi names offer buying...

Andrew Jackson

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