Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Broadcom's stock surged following its impressive fiscal first-quarter earnings, signaling resilience in the artificial intelligence trade despite recent market volatility.</li><li>The company reported revenue of $14.92 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s expectation of $14.62 billion, while adjusted earnings of $1.60 per share exceeded analysts’ estimates of $1.51.</li><li>Additionally, Broadcom projected $14.9 billion in revenue for the current quarter, above the consensus estimate of $14.71 billion.</li></ul>

Broadcom's stock surged following its impressive fiscal first-quarter earnings, signaling resilience in the artificial intelligence trade despite recent market volatility.The company reported revenue of $14.92 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s expectation of $14.62 billion, while adjusted earnings of $1.60 per share exceeded analysts’ estimates of $1.51.Additionally, Broadcom projected $14.9 billion in revenue for the current quarter, above the consensus estimate of $14.71 billion.

Broadcom's Future Looks Bright Despite NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's Claims! Here's What We Think!

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There is expected to be US$600m to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">Invesco S&amp;P500 Equal Weight</a> ETFs at the same time as the selling from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There is expected to be US$600m to sell in Broadcom from the Technology Select Sector and Invesco S&amp;P500 Equal Weight ETFs at the same time as the selling from VanEck Vectors Semiconductor.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

<ul><li>Broadcom Inc.'s financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 reveal a year marked by significant growth driven by strategic acquisitions and advancements in AI technologies.</li><li>The company's consolidated revenue for the fiscal year reached $51.6 billion, showcasing a 44% year-over-year increase.</li><li>This growth was bolstered not only by strong organic growth of over 9% but also by the strategic acquisition and integration of VMware, which contributed notably to Broadcom's financial achievements.</li></ul>

Broadcom Inc.'s financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 reveal a year marked by significant growth driven by strategic acquisitions and advancements in AI technologies.The company's consolidated revenue for the fiscal year reached $51.6 billion, showcasing a 44% year-over-year increase.This growth was bolstered not only by strong organic growth of over 9% but also by the strategic acquisition and integration of VMware, which contributed notably to Broadcom's financial achievements.

Broadcom Inc: These Are The 5 Major Hurdles That It Faces In 2025! - Major Drivers

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>There is over US$500m to trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management (APO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workday-inc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5660:1" rel="noopener">Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> swings from a small net buy to a large net sell following the rally in the stock last week.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.
There is over US$500m to trade in Broadcom (AVGO US), Tesla (TSLA US), Apollo Global Management (APO US), Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US). 

Broadcom (AVGO US) swings from a small net buy to a large net sell following the rally in the stock last week.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).</li>
<li>TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.</li>
<li>TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.</li>
</ul>


News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).
TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.
TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.


TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

Broadcom's Future Looks Bright Despite NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's Claims! Here's What We Think!

Broadcom's stock surged following its impressive fiscal first-quarter earnings, signaling resilience in the artificial intelligence trade despite...

Baptista Research

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

No constituent changes but big capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Broadcom will have...

Brian Freitas

Broadcom Inc: These Are The 5 Major Hurdles That It Faces In 2025! - Major Drivers

Broadcom Inc.'s financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 reveal a year marked by significant growth driven by strategic...

Baptista Research

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

Constituent changes to the SnP500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector and the SnP500 Equal...

Brian Freitas

TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Broadcom's Future Looks Bright Despite NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's Claims! Here's What We Think!

Broadcom's stock surged following its impressive fiscal first-quarter earnings, signaling resilience in the artificial intelligence trade despite...

Baptista Research

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

No constituent changes but big capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Broadcom will have...

Brian Freitas

Broadcom Inc: These Are The 5 Major Hurdles That It Faces In 2025! - Major Drivers

Broadcom Inc.'s financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 reveal a year marked by significant growth driven by strategic...

Baptista Research

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

Constituent changes to the SnP500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector and the SnP500 Equal...

Brian Freitas

TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

​Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...