Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>"It is so much cheaper to do simulations than real experiments, so much more flexible in testing...we can even do things which cannot be done in any lab… So it’s inevitable this trend will continue for some time." - Richard Hamming, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Art-Doing-Science-Engineering-Learning/dp/1732265178" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Art of Doing Science and Engineering</a>.</li>
<li>Richard Hamming said this to the President of Bell Labs in the 1950s. And I think this insight rings more accurate than ever. Simulations of reality are much more flexible and cheaper than observing and interacting with reality.</li>
<li>I will assert that LLMs and “AI” are effectively the logical conclusion of this trend. A large language model is trained on the largest amount of data possible, often the entire crawlable Internet<a href="https://kili-technology.com/large-language-models-llms/9-open-sourced-datasets-for-training-large-language-models" target="_blank" rel="noopener">, all the books ever written, and so much more</a>.</li>
</ul>


"It is so much cheaper to do simulations than real experiments, so much more flexible in testing...we can even do things which cannot be done in any lab… So it’s inevitable this trend will continue for some time." - Richard Hamming, The Art of Doing Science and Engineering.
Richard Hamming said this to the President of Bell Labs in the 1950s. And I think this insight rings more accurate than ever. Simulations of reality are much more flexible and cheaper than observing and interacting with reality.
I will assert that LLMs and “AI” are effectively the logical conclusion of this trend. A large language model is trained on the largest amount of data possible, often the entire crawlable Internet, all the books ever written, and so much more.


Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The WiFi technology was dominated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-corp-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:999:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US)</a>, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F.</li>
<li>There are speculations that Apple might use MediaTek's WiFi 7 solution in 2024F or consider MediaTek as a potential chip provider.</li>
<li>MediaTek will be using 6nm technology for WiFi 7, replacing the current 28nm technology used for WiFi 6.</li>
</ul>


The WiFi technology was dominated by Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US), but Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F.
There are speculations that Apple might use MediaTek's WiFi 7 solution in 2024F or consider MediaTek as a potential chip provider.
MediaTek will be using 6nm technology for WiFi 7, replacing the current 28nm technology used for WiFi 6.


MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector</li>
<li>Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months</li>
<li>Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle</li>
</ul>


There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector
Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months
Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle


<ul><li>A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock space</li><li>Pretty much the entire index is going to receive inflows at the expense of the top 8 names.</li><li>Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Tesla will all be cut from the index weight and redistributed into smaller names on <a href="https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/237279/index-investors-beware-the-nasdaq-is-rebalancing-next-week.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">July 24, 2023</a>.</li></ul>

A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock spacePretty much the entire index is going to receive inflows at the expense of the top 8 names.Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Tesla will all be cut from the index weight and redistributed into smaller names on July 24, 2023.

Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>Another incredibly impressive quarterly performance for Crowdstrike. It crushed consensus and raised guidance by well more than the beat. The recent Gartner Magic Quadrant on endpoint protection shows Crowdstrike head and shoulders above the legacy competition. The high profile cyber attack backdrop doesn't hurt either. The only issue is...the market has caught up to Crowdstrike, and its a bit of a consensus long now. We stay long but recognize further gains are harder because of this dynamic. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </p></div>

Another incredibly impressive quarterly performance for Crowdstrike. It crushed consensus and raised guidance by well more than the beat. The recent Gartner Magic Quadrant on endpoint protection shows Crowdstrike head and shoulders above the legacy competition. The high profile cyber attack backdrop doesn't hurt either. The only issue is...the market has caught up to Crowdstrike, and its a bit of a consensus long now. We stay long but recognize further gains are harder because of this dynamic. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

United States

Broadcom Corporation provides integrated silicon solutions that enable broadband digital data transmission of voice, data, and video content to the home and within the business enterprise.  The Company designs, develops, and supplies integrated circuits for cable set-top boxes, cable modems, high-speed networking, direct satellite and digital broadcast, and digital subscriber line.

Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US)

Jensen's World: Compressing Reality

Nvidia is pursuing a strategy of broadening its software distribution on one of the largest installed bases in the world.

Fabricated Knowledge

MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...

Patrick Liao

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning

A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock space Pretty much the entire index is...

Fabricated Knowledge

Crowdstrike 1Q2022: The Best in the Biz

Incredibly strong quarter for Crowdstrike. The business is humming, clearly separating itself from its legacy peers. High profile ransomware...

Aaron Gabin

Jensen's World: Compressing Reality

Nvidia is pursuing a strategy of broadening its software distribution on one of the largest installed bases in the world.

Fabricated Knowledge

MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. ​In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...

Patrick Liao

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

​The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning

A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock space Pretty much the entire index is...

Fabricated Knowledge

Crowdstrike 1Q2022: The Best in the Biz

Incredibly strong quarter for Crowdstrike. The business is humming, clearly separating itself from its legacy peers. High profile ransomware...

Aaron Gabin

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...