Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>It is a paradox US President wanted to make the US the number one semiconductor manufacturing country but is very likely unable to change the existing environment in the US.</li>
<li>Another paradox is that a foreign company must obtain approval from the relevant US authorities before transferring control of the specific US company, which may not be feasible.</li>
<li>It raises the third paradox that a Taiwanese company would need to operate an existing US entity with their company's expertise under different cost conditions.  </li>
</ul>


It is a paradox US President wanted to make the US the number one semiconductor manufacturing country but is very likely unable to change the existing environment in the US.
Another paradox is that a foreign company must obtain approval from the relevant US authorities before transferring control of the specific US company, which may not be feasible.
It raises the third paradox that a Taiwanese company would need to operate an existing US entity with their company's expertise under different cost conditions.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes...

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation.  China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.</li>
<li>DeepSeek's announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.</li>
<li>Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump's hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market. </li>
</ul>


Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation.  China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.
DeepSeek's announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.
Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump's hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market. 


The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and the immense growth spurt happened all right.</li><li>This last year was the year of AI through and through.</li><li>There’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.</li></ul>

Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and the immense growth spurt happened all right.This last year was the year of AI through and through.There’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a>'s 4Q24 outlook to be a seasonal uptrend with a slight increase quarter-over-quarter.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener"> NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will become the top client at KYEC, and Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is expected to become the second-largest client in the outlook for 2025.   </a></li>
<li>The focus will primarily be on currently available sources, particularly KYEC for production.  </li>
</ul>


We expect King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)'s 4Q24 outlook to be a seasonal uptrend with a slight increase quarter-over-quarter.
 NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will become the top client at KYEC, and Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is expected to become the second-largest client in the outlook for 2025.   
The focus will primarily be on currently available sources, particularly KYEC for production.  


KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>We anticipate that the upcoming 4Q24 will likely see a ~10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) upside.</li>
<li>Among TSMC's top clients are companies from the US, Taiwan, and Japan.</li>
<li>Recently, we have heard that TSMC is reducing wafer quotations by about ~10% for 28nm and below, in order to adapt to the current environment.</li>
</ul>


We anticipate that the upcoming 4Q24 will likely see a ~10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) upside.
Among TSMC's top clients are companies from the US, Taiwan, and Japan.
Recently, we have heard that TSMC is reducing wafer quotations by about ~10% for 28nm and below, in order to adapt to the current environment.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

United States

Broadcom Corporation provides integrated silicon solutions that enable broadband digital data transmission of voice, data, and video content to the home and within the business enterprise.  The Company designs, develops, and supplies integrated circuits for cable set-top boxes, cable modems, high-speed networking, direct satellite and digital broadcast, and digital subscriber line.

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Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes...

US President's goal of making the US the top semiconductor manufacturing country faces paradoxes due to existing environment, approval...

Patrick Liao

The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

Trump's tariff actions against China have resulted in a muted response from Xi in retaliatory tariffs. Instead Xi has targeted the US tech sector...

David Mudd

2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and...

Fabricated Knowledge

KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025

Expect seasonal uptrend in 4Q24 outlook for King Yuan Electronics Co, with NVIDIA Corp as top client and Mediatek Inc as second-largest in 2025....

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

Anticipating 10% QoQ growth in 4Q24 for TSMC, who is adjusting wafer quotations to meet current demands from US, Taiwan, and Japan clients.

Patrick Liao

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes...

​US President's goal of making the US the top semiconductor manufacturing country faces paradoxes due to existing environment, approval...

Patrick Liao

The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

Trump's tariff actions against China have resulted in a muted response from Xi in retaliatory tariffs. Instead Xi has targeted the US tech sector...

David Mudd

2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and...

Fabricated Knowledge

KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025

​Expect seasonal uptrend in 4Q24 outlook for King Yuan Electronics Co, with NVIDIA Corp as top client and Mediatek Inc as second-largest in 2025....

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

​Anticipating 10% QoQ growth in 4Q24 for TSMC, who is adjusting wafer quotations to meet current demands from US, Taiwan, and Japan clients.

Patrick Liao

US President's goal of making the US the top semiconductor manufacturing country faces paradoxes due to existing environment, approval...

Expect seasonal uptrend in 4Q24 outlook for King Yuan Electronics Co, with NVIDIA Corp as top client and Mediatek Inc as second-largest in 2025....

Anticipating 10% QoQ growth in 4Q24 for TSMC, who is adjusting wafer quotations to meet current demands from US, Taiwan, and Japan clients.