Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong><em>*D-SIB Standards Released:</em></strong> The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) on December 3, 2020 released finalized standards for the country’s domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), and indicated that tighter regulations will be announced shortly; and</p><p><strong><em>* Aggressive Capital Raises Expected: </em></strong>In our view, the forthcoming regulations are likely to focus on: additional paid-in capital; leverage ratios; risk concentrations; corporate governance; disclosure levels; and mechanism to prevent systemic risk; and internal controls. The idea is to finally strengthen mainland Chinese bank balance sheets and improve their loss absorption capacity. Problem for equity raises is that P/BV must be over 1.0x for the raise and many of the potential D-SIBs are trading below book value. </p>

*D-SIB Standards Released: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) on December 3, 2020 released finalized standards for the country’s domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), and indicated that tighter regulations will be announced shortly; and* Aggressive Capital Raises Expected: In our view, the forthcoming regulations are likely to focus on: additional paid-in capital; leverage ratios; risk concentrations; corporate governance; disclosure levels; and mechanism to prevent systemic risk; and internal controls. The idea is to finally strengthen mainland Chinese bank balance sheets and improve their loss absorption capacity. Problem for equity raises is that P/BV must be over 1.0x for the raise and many of the potential D-SIBs are trading below book value. 

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29690:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holdings (LU US)</a> is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. Lufax has launched its IPO at a price range of $11.50-13.50 per ADS to raise net proceeds of $2,109 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Lufax will command a market cap of $30.5 billion which is around 20% lower than the 2018 Series C round valuation of $39 billion. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-ipo-initiation-lost-in-transition" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that while Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.</p></div></div></div>

Lufax Holdings (LU US) is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. Lufax has launched its IPO at a price range of $11.50-13.50 per ADS to raise net proceeds of $2,109 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Lufax will command a market cap of $30.5 billion which is around 20% lower than the 2018 Series C round valuation of $39 billion. In our initiation note, we stated that while Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29690:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holdings (LU US)</a> is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. In retail credit, Lufax is the second-largest non-traditional financial service providers in China as measured by outstanding balances of retail credit facilitated, according to Oliver Wyman. Lufax has filed for an NYSE IPO to raise an estimated $3 billion, according to press reports. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The Chinese consumer finance sector has gone through a corona-induced extreme stress test in 1H20. The sector has proved to be more often than not value destructive for public market investors and continues to remain hostage to regulatory change. While Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile.  </p></div>

Lufax Holdings (LU US) is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. In retail credit, Lufax is the second-largest non-traditional financial service providers in China as measured by outstanding balances of retail credit facilitated, according to Oliver Wyman. Lufax has filed for an NYSE IPO to raise an estimated $3 billion, according to press reports. The Chinese consumer finance sector has gone through a corona-induced extreme stress test in 1H20. The sector has proved to be more often than not value destructive for public market investors and continues to remain hostage to regulatory change. While Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile.  

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/360-finance-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27756:1" rel="noopener">360 Finance, Inc. (QFIN US)</a> is a leading online consumer lending platform and the finance partner of the 360 Group. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9f-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28238:1" rel="noopener">9F Inc (JFG US)</a>, a P2P lending platform, is the largest online consumer finance platform among the independent marketplace lending platforms in China, as measured by outstanding loan balance as of 31 December 2018.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The Chinese consumer finance sector has gone through a corona-induced extreme stress test in 1Q20. While the industry remains hostage to regulations, we believe that the long 360 Finance/short 9F is an attractive pair trade for investors keen on exposure to the Chinese online consumer finance industry. </p></div>

360 Finance, Inc. (QFIN US) is a leading online consumer lending platform and the finance partner of the 360 Group. 9F Inc (JFG US), a P2P lending platform, is the largest online consumer finance platform among the independent marketplace lending platforms in China, as measured by outstanding loan balance as of 31 December 2018.The Chinese consumer finance sector has gone through a corona-induced extreme stress test in 1Q20. While the industry remains hostage to regulations, we believe that the long 360 Finance/short 9F is an attractive pair trade for investors keen on exposure to the Chinese online consumer finance industry. 

China Consumer Finance Pair Trade: Long 360 Finance/Short 9F

Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<p>The strength of the US dollar is a concern that is unlikely to go away any time soon. Understandably. Global US dollar purchasing power has been eroded and Asian export performance, economic activity and corporate profitability adversely affected. 1H19 has been tough for Asian countries and companies alike. Despite this underlying fundamentals remain strong. Asian policymakers too have the flexibility to ease monetary and fiscal policy which they are doing. We remain cautiously optimistic that Asia has enough inbuilt resilience to ride out these uncertain times.</p>

The strength of the US dollar is a concern that is unlikely to go away any time soon. Understandably. Global US dollar purchasing power has been eroded and Asian export performance, economic activity and corporate profitability adversely affected. 1H19 has been tough for Asian countries and companies alike. Despite this underlying fundamentals remain strong. Asian policymakers too have the flexibility to ease monetary and fiscal policy which they are doing. We remain cautiously optimistic that Asia has enough inbuilt resilience to ride out these uncertain times.

China

9F Inc provides IT services. The Company offers digital financial accounting platform for integrating and personalizing solutions. 9F serves customers in China.

9F (JFU US)

China Banks – About Time

CHINA BANKS: PBOC and CBIRC Released Finalized D-SIB Standards and Indicated Tighter Regulations. Aggressive Capital Raises Are Expected.

Thomas J. Monaco

Lufax IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

Arun George

Lufax IPO Initiation: Lost in Transition

We find it hard to be enthused by the Lufax story as its heavily reliant on a sector that has repeatedly been subject to regulatory blows which led...

Arun George

China Consumer Finance Pair Trade: Long 360 Finance/Short 9F

360 Finance, Inc. (QFIN US) is a leading online consumer lending platform and the finance partner of the 360 Group. 9F Inc (JFG US), a P2P lending...

Arun George

Putting The Strong Dollar In Perspective

The strength of the US dollar is a concern that is unlikely to go away any time soon. Understandably. Global US dollar purchasing power has been...

Sharmila Whelan