New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>There was little to fault in The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) 1H25 result.</li><li>English Label (EL) revenue—particularly CBEC—stole the show, driven by strong execution in lower-tier cities and early-stage products, along with an improving market backdrop.</li><li>Increased earnings guidance implies a 2H25 EBITDA margin of 15.0%–15.5%, marking the first genuine margin expansion since pre-COVID and likely strengthening confidence in the margin outlook. </li></ul>

There was little to fault in The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) 1H25 result.English Label (EL) revenue—particularly CBEC—stole the show, driven by strong execution in lower-tier cities and early-stage products, along with an improving market backdrop.Increased earnings guidance implies a 2H25 EBITDA margin of 15.0%–15.5%, marking the first genuine margin expansion since pre-COVID and likely strengthening confidence in the margin outlook. 

The A2 Milk Company - 1H25 Result—More than Baby Steps

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Santos, A2 Milk Company, Nextdc.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Santos, A2 Milk Company, Nextdc.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 14th): Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates

<ul><li>We head into The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) 1H25 result not expecting any surprises relative to consensus expectations or company guidance.</li><li>This is a brave ascertation to make given ATM's track record on result days, but the (still) pending supply chain acquisition/JV is the main area of possible surprise.</li><li>Key focus areas are: (1) supply chain updates, (2) China Label (CL) revenue, and (3) the English Label (EL) outlook in light of the new Genesis HMO product release.</li></ul>

We head into The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) 1H25 result not expecting any surprises relative to consensus expectations or company guidance.This is a brave ascertation to make given ATM's track record on result days, but the (still) pending supply chain acquisition/JV is the main area of possible surprise.Key focus areas are: (1) supply chain updates, (2) China Label (CL) revenue, and (3) the English Label (EL) outlook in light of the new Genesis HMO product release.

The A2 Milk Company -1H25 Preview—Supply Chain News?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.</li>
<li>The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.</li>
</ul>


There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.

A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.


S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

<ul><li>Kantar data for The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) 1H25 period is highlighting low-single-digit growth, with Q2 showing a solid sequential improvement in market share (primarily China Label [CL] driven).</li><li>This growth is slightly below 1H25 consensus infant formula revenue expectations.</li><li>However, given data volatility, ATM’s track record of exceeding Kantar's CL growth, and recent revenue gains in other areas (primarily MVM and Nutritionals), we don't anticipate material surprises in ATM's 1H25 result. </li></ul>

Kantar data for The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) 1H25 period is highlighting low-single-digit growth, with Q2 showing a solid sequential improvement in market share (primarily China Label [CL] driven).This growth is slightly below 1H25 consensus infant formula revenue expectations.However, given data volatility, ATM’s track record of exceeding Kantar's CL growth, and recent revenue gains in other areas (primarily MVM and Nutritionals), we don't anticipate material surprises in ATM's 1H25 result. 

The A2 Milk Company - Kantar Data—Looking for Improvement

Australia

a2 Milk Company Limited produces cow milk which is free of a protein called beta casein A1.  The Company 
offers its products in Australia and New Zealand.

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A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)

The A2 Milk Company - 1H25 Result—More than Baby Steps

English Label (EL) revenue—particularly CBEC—stole the show, driven by strong execution in lower-tier cities and early-stage products, along with...

Forsyth Barr

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 14th): Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The A2 Milk Company -1H25 Preview—Supply Chain News?

We head into The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) 1H25 result not expecting any surprises relative to consensus expectations or company guidance.

Forsyth Barr

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

There could be one change each for the NZX10 and NZX50 indices in March. Flows in the stocks are limited but impact is huge. A2Milk could have huge...

Brian Freitas

The A2 Milk Company - Kantar Data—Looking for Improvement

Kantar data for The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) 1H25 period is highlighting low-single-digit growth, with Q2 showing a solid sequential improvement in...

Forsyth Barr

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