New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>A solid 2H25 result from The a2 Milk Company (ATM) was the side event to the ‘a2 Pokeno’ acquisition.</li><li>ATM will acquire 100% of Yashili NZ for NZ$282m and has divested Mataura Valley Milk (MVM) for NZ$100m.</li><li>We view this as strategically and financially sound.</li></ul>

A solid 2H25 result from The a2 Milk Company (ATM) was the side event to the ‘a2 Pokeno’ acquisition.ATM will acquire 100% of Yashili NZ for NZ$282m and has divested Mataura Valley Milk (MVM) for NZ$100m.We view this as strategically and financially sound.

The A2 Milk Company FY25 Result—Milking The Margin

<ul><li>The a2 Milk Company’s (ATM) share price tends to be highly volatile on result days—positively and negatively—but we are hopeful this time is different.</li><li>Top-line momentum appears robust, which should support solid growth into FY26 (assuming SML’s issues aren’t too big of a drag).</li><li>Beyond core China infant formula (IF) growth, updates on: (1) Genesis HMO traction; (2) supply chain transformation; (3) other nutritionals performance; and (4) US/MVM, are of particular interest.</li></ul>

The a2 Milk Company’s (ATM) share price tends to be highly volatile on result days—positively and negatively—but we are hopeful this time is different.Top-line momentum appears robust, which should support solid growth into FY26 (assuming SML’s issues aren’t too big of a drag).Beyond core China infant formula (IF) growth, updates on: (1) Genesis HMO traction; (2) supply chain transformation; (3) other nutritionals performance; and (4) US/MVM, are of particular interest.

The A2 Milk Company FY25 Preview—A Smoother Ride?

<ul><li>Mixed is how we would describe our feelings heading into The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) FY25 result.</li><li>Looking to FY26, with (1) a strong 2H exit run-rate, and (2) larger impact of a2 Genesis HMO, our earnings are slightly ahead of consensus.</li><li>We think valuation is slightly elevated at current levels, but countering that we are comfortable with consensus' outlook and are balancing the possible near-term catalysts of (1) supply chain acquisition (which could be announced at any moment), and (2) capital management opportunities.</li></ul>

Mixed is how we would describe our feelings heading into The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) FY25 result.Looking to FY26, with (1) a strong 2H exit run-rate, and (2) larger impact of a2 Genesis HMO, our earnings are slightly ahead of consensus.We think valuation is slightly elevated at current levels, but countering that we are comfortable with consensus' outlook and are balancing the possible near-term catalysts of (1) supply chain acquisition (which could be announced at any moment), and (2) capital management opportunities.

The A2 Milk Company Wheying Up The Investment Case

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD23.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos, Goodman, Coles.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD23.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos, Goodman, Coles.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 11th): Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryman-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10590:1" rel="noopener">Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)</a> in the S&amp;P/NZX 10 Index at the close of trading on 21 March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 0.8x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> and will need to sell 1.2x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryman-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10590:1" rel="noopener">Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)</a>. </li>
<li>Importantly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> is a deletion from a global index at the close on 21 March and the selling from those passive trackers is far larger.</li>
</ul>



A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) will replace Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ) in the S&amp;P/NZX 10 Index at the close of trading on 21 March.
Passive trackers will need to buy 0.8x ADV in A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) and will need to sell 1.2x ADV in Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ). 
Importantly, A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a deletion from a global index at the close on 21 March and the selling from those passive trackers is far larger.


S&P/NZX 10 Index Rebalance: A2 Milk (ATM NZ) Replaces Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

New Zealand

a2 Milk Company Limited produces cow milk which is free of a protein called beta casein A1.  The Company offers its products in Australia and New Zealand.

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A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)

The A2 Milk Company FY25 Result—Milking The Margin

ATM will acquire 100% of Yashili NZ for NZ$282m and has divested Mataura Valley Milk (MVM) for NZ$100m. We view this as strategically and...

Forsyth Barr

The A2 Milk Company FY25 Preview—A Smoother Ride?

The a2 Milk Company’s (ATM) share price tends to be highly volatile on result days—positively and negatively—but we are hopeful this time is...

Forsyth Barr

The A2 Milk Company Wheying Up The Investment Case

Mixed is how we would describe our feelings heading into The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) FY25 result. Looking to FY26, with (1) a strong 2H exit run...

Forsyth Barr

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 11th): Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/NZX 10 Index Rebalance: A2 Milk (ATM NZ) Replaces Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

a2Milk replaces Ryman Healthcare in the NZX10 Index. Ryman has continued to slide following the NZ$1bn equity raise while a2 Milk is a deletion...

Brian Freitas

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