Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A number of developments in the past week were a stark reminder that&nbsp;Australia&rsquo;s exports to China&nbsp;are undergoing a revolution thanks to inexorable&nbsp;rise of China's middle class.&nbsp;&nbsp;At a time when BHP dropped to a decade low, the news-flow in Australia focussed on &nbsp;the growing shortage on supermarket shelves of Bellamy&rsquo;s baby formula, while overseas arrivals from China continue to surge.&nbsp;</li><li>Chinese demand for&nbsp;Australia's agri-food products, vitamins, wine, tourism, higher education and other non-commodity goods and&nbsp;services&nbsp;will continue to grow strongly and help diversify our export basket.&nbsp; In an environment where the aggregate supply of growth in Australia is low, the rise of China's middle class is a powerful and seductive investment theme that offers strong growth prospects to Australia's non-commodity exporters.</li><li>The key macro announcement in Australia in the past week was the stronger than expected employment print for the month of October.&nbsp; Expectations of a December rate cut have consequently diminished.&nbsp; Evidente has been of the view that given the spare capacity in the economy and labour market, the RBA should deliver more monetary stimulus.&nbsp; One strong monthly employment outcome is not sufficient to alter my view that labour market conditions are slack and that another rate cut is necessary.</li></ul>

A number of developments in the past week were a stark reminder that&nbsp;Australia&rsquo;s exports to China&nbsp;are undergoing a revolution thanks to inexorable&nbsp;rise of China's middle class.&nbsp;&nbsp;At a time when BHP dropped to a decade low, the news-flow in Australia focussed on &nbsp;the growing shortage on supermarket shelves of Bellamy&rsquo;s baby formula, while overseas arrivals from China continue to surge.&nbsp;Chinese demand for&nbsp;Australia's agri-food products, vitamins, wine, tourism, higher education and other non-commodity goods and&nbsp;services&nbsp;will continue to grow strongly and help diversify our export basket.&nbsp; In an environment where the aggregate supply of growth in Australia is low, the rise of China's middle class is a powerful and seductive investment theme that offers strong growth prospects to Australia's non-commodity exporters.The key macro announcement in Australia in the past week was the stronger than expected employment print for the month of October.&nbsp; Expectations of a December rate cut have consequently diminished.&nbsp; Evidente has been of the view that given the spare capacity in the economy and labour market, the RBA should deliver more monetary stimulus.&nbsp; One strong monthly employment outcome is not sufficient to alter my view that labour market conditions are slack and that another rate cut is necessary.

Weekly Impressions - Australia's Export Revolution to China's Rising Middle Class

<ul><li>This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;</li><li>I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;</li><li>I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.</li></ul>

This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of March 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~39%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of March 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~39%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer is still too cheap. It is also a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&amp;A Guidelines.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>'s pursuit of a dual listing (primary or secondary?) appears to be put the buyout on the backburner. For now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> have a large part of the Max Real World Float to displace. Neither of those two names are outlandishly expensive.</li>
</ul>



Lawson Inc (2651 JP)'s Tender Offer is still too cheap. It is also a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&amp;A Guidelines.

Samsonite (1910 HK)'s pursuit of a dual listing (primary or secondary?) appears to be put the buyout on the backburner. For now.

Socionext (6526 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) have a large part of the Max Real World Float to displace. Neither of those two names are outlandishly expensive.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO

<ul>
<li>I tally 53 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were  discussed this week on Smartkarma: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mma-offshore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:594:1" rel="noopener">MMA Offshore (MRM AU)</a>'s  Scheme with Singapore's Cyan Renewables; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a>'s Scheme.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral (BLD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle (1839 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-dg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10653:1" rel="noopener">Roland DG (6789 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welbe-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31118:1" rel="noopener">Welbe (6556 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 53 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were  discussed this week on Smartkarma: MMA Offshore (MRM AU)'s  Scheme with Singapore's Cyan Renewables; and Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)'s Scheme.
Key updates took place on: Boral (BLD AU), Orecorp (ORR AU), Lawson Inc (2651 JP), CPMC (906 HK), CIMC Vehicle (1839 HK), Roland DG (6789 JP), and Welbe (6556 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:MMA, Boral, Orecorp, Probiotec, CPMC, CIMC Vehicle, Roland DG, Welbe, SciClone

Australia

A2B Australia Limited develops software solutions. The Company provides payment solutions and communication platforms for transportation sector. A2B Australia serves customers in Australia.

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A2B Australia (A2B AU)

Weekly Impressions - Australia's Export Revolution to China's Rising Middle Class

A number of developments in the past week were a stark reminder that Australia’s exports to China are undergoing a revolution thanks to...

Sam Ferraro

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

This post provides an update of Evidente’s currency model. Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also...

Sam Ferraro

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

For the month of March, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:MMA, Boral, Orecorp, Probiotec, CPMC, CIMC Vehicle, Roland DG, Welbe, SciClone

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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