Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Book for July 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for July 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits. 

Asia HY Trade Book - July 2023 - Lucror Analytics

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

AAC Technologies Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AAC announced 1H23 profit warning, stating 1H23 net profit of RMB 122mn157mn (down 55-65% YoY), well below our/consensus expectations.</li><li>Mgmt. attributed the weakness to 1) slower operating efficiency improvement from reorganisation, 2) weak smartphone demand and intensified competition, and 3) temporary inferior product mix on expanded product portfolio.</li><li>We trimmed FY23- 25E EPS by 18-45% to reflect 1H23 results and slower earnings recovery. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AAC announced 1H23 profit warning, stating 1H23 net profit of RMB 122mn157mn (down 55-65% YoY), well below our/consensus expectations.Mgmt. attributed the weakness to 1) slower operating efficiency improvement from reorganisation, 2) weak smartphone demand and intensified competition, and 3) temporary inferior product mix on expanded product portfolio.We trimmed FY23- 25E EPS by 18-45% to reflect 1H23 results and slower earnings recovery. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AAC Tech (2018 HK) – 1H23 Worse than Expected on Slow Recovery

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-6544'>AAC Technologies Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18561'>JSW Steel Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-198'>Reliance Industries</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.AAC Technologies HoldingsJSW Steel LtdReliance Industries

Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Reliance Industries

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.</li>
<li>The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Yet another week of inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.</li>
</ul>


There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.
The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
Yet another week of inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

<ul>
<li>We expect one change to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in September - though there could be a second change as well.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.13% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$2.01bn in case there are two index changes. Turnover will be lower if there is only one change.</li>
<li>Short interest on some of the potential changes is over 15% of float and there could be big moves on the stocks post announcement of the changes.</li>
</ul>


We expect one change to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in September - though there could be a second change as well.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.13% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$2.01bn in case there are two index changes. Turnover will be lower if there is only one change.
Short interest on some of the potential changes is over 15% of float and there could be big moves on the stocks post announcement of the changes.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): One Change or Two?

China

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc designs, develops and manufactures a broad range of miniaturized components that include speakers, receivers and microphones in the acoustic segment and others such as haptics vibrators, RF and antennas, and optical lenses. AAC's products are found in mobile devices such as smartphones, tablets, wearables, ultrabooks, notebooks and electronic book-readers.

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AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)

Asia HY Trade Book - July 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for July 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features...

Lucror Analytics

AAC Tech (2018 HK) – 1H23 Worse than Expected on Slow Recovery

AAC announced 1H23 profit warning, stating 1H23 net profit of RMB 122mn157mn (down 55-65% YoY), well below our/consensus expectations.

CMB International

Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Reliance Industries

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): One Change or Two?

We forecast 1 change in September, though there be another change as well. Short interest is high on the potential deletes & there could be...

Brian Freitas

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